Autumn Zodiac

[Sir Derf]

Yes, there's the lowest chance ever of winning daily prizes.

There's an interesting thing to note though -

The best chest to open for artefacts (statistically) is the 139 chest. This relies on one hinging fact though. In that chest there is a 5% chance of winning 500 keys. On average you're going to be able to find that once over the course of the event, if you always open that box. If you find it, then great, you're on track. However, statistically half of the people will never find that prize. If you're in that half then it's no longer the best chest. Using this method comes with a much greater risk than previous events when the best chest for artefacts cost 18 keys (or nuts, widgets, whatever they were). On the flipside, the other half of people may win 500 keys twice. For those it becomes an incredibly good chest... small margins here for big differences.

...

At first, I was going to respond with a sarcastic and cutting reply, but I'll tone it down. Put less dramatically, I think you're trying to describe that while the 139 chest works out to the best choice, its uncertainty, its variability, its standard deviation, its spread, would be wider than in previous events. That is an interesting and deeper point than is usually not computed or presented by us number crunchers. I'm not sure that it really changes the strategy you should pursue; shouldn't your best chance at success be your best chance at success? Keep in mind, event rewards aren't zero sum; you don't have a chance of ending the event with negative daily prizes; the worst outcome is that you end with what you started, no daily prizes. Failure to get a bonus is not the same as suffering a loss.

Also, I think you're playing a little fast and loose with your wording/logic on re-analyzing pre-outcome options based on post-outcome, um, outcomes. "If you're in that half then it's no longer the best chest" Nope. Still was the best chest, at the time, based on the information available to you at the time.

 

[Sir Derf]

Went for a walk to my library and was pondering this some more. By this, I mean the "If you're in that half then it's no longer the best chest" concept.

Picture the following:

The game is no cost, honest, in-your-favor Three Card Monte. 1 Red Queen, 2 Black Queens. Randomly shuffled. 1 card placed face down on the left; 2 cards placed face down on top of each other on the right. You choose may choose either the left pile (of 1 card) or the right pile (of 2 cards). Find the Red Queen, win $10. (And no, despite the apparent similarity, I'm not trying to invoke the Monty Hall effect. Bear with me.)

• I haven't laid out any cards yet. You are to play a single round. What is your strategy?
• I haven't laid out any cards yet. You are to play 10 rounds in a row. What is your strategy?
• I have randomly shuffled and dealt out a set of 3 cards for you to play a single round. What is your strategy?
• I have randomly shuffled and dealt out 10 sets of 3 cards for you to play 10 rounds in a row. What is your strategy?

In all of the above, the best strategy is to pick the pile on the right. Always. 66% chance of success. You might win a single game, you might lose. You might win 6 out of 10 games, you might win them all, you might lose them all. Doesn't matter. Your best strategy is still to always pick the pile on the right.

• I have randomly shuffled and dealt out a set of 3 cards for you to play a single round. I have looked at the cards and know where the Red Queen is, but you do not. What is your strategy?
• I have randomly shuffled and dealt out 10 sets of 3 cards for you to play 10 rounds in a row. I have looked at the cards and know where all the Red Queens are, but you do not. What is your strategy?

Still no difference. The best strategy is to always pick the pile on the right.

• I have randomly shuffled and dealt out a set of 3 cards for you to play a single round. I have looked at the cards and know the Red Queen is on the right, but you do not. What is your strategy?
• I have randomly shuffled and dealt out a set of 3 cards for you to play a single round. I have looked at the cards and know the Red Queen is on the left, but you do not. What is your strategy?
• I have randomly shuffled and dealt out 10 sets of 3 cards for you to play 10 rounds in a row. I have looked at the cards and know all the Red Queens are on the right, but you do not. What is your strategy?
• I have randomly shuffled and dealt out 10 sets of 3 cards for you to play 10 rounds in a row. I have looked at the cards and know the Red Queens are LLRLLRLLRL, but you do not. What is your strategy?
• I have randomly shuffled and dealt out 10 sets of 3 cards for you to play 10 rounds in a row. I have looked at the cards and know all the Red Queens are on the right left, but you do not. What is your strategy?

Here's my point. There's still no difference. Your best strategy is still to always pick the pile on the right. You will win the first scenario. You will lose the second scenario. You will win all 10 rounds in the third scenario. You will win only 3 rounds in the fourth scenario. You will lose all 10 rounds in the fifth scenario. In each of these scenarios, there was a optimum choice, be it R, L, RRRRRRRRRR, LLRLLRLLRL or LLLLLLLLLL. But, that didn't change what the best strategy was.



The 139 chest is the best choice. That's not a guarantee, that's a strategy.

 

[Sir Derf]

Separate thought.

Consider the implications if, in a future event, they introduce a chest with 0% chance of the daily prize, but with an x% chance at y keys. Consider if x and y are such that it provides a significant long-term daily prize benefit, while not directly providing a daily prize chance on its own.

 

[BlueBlou]

I just want to say, irrespective of my city compositions, and they do vary a lot, I could easily do the coins, tools or goods quests. Whatever formula is used to determine this, please don’t change it. Thanks!

 

[Pauly7]

@Sir Derf, whilst I appreciate your complex explanation via the three card choice analogy (yes, to begin with it immediately smacked of Monty Hall), there isn't any point we are disagreeing on here. This is a matter of semantics and you not liking my "fast and loose" description. I understand the basic principle of probability.

My point merely was, as you've pointed out, that there are much bigger variables when opening the 139 chest. I didn't ever suggest a different strategy. I was just suggesting that there is a large proportion of the players that will end up disappointed when doing it. It is like betting on red or black at the roulette table (I'm not saying the odds are the same, if you're looking for an inaccuracy.)

So when I said that it becomes one of the worst chests, I am only saying that with hindsight and seeing the results it can end up that way. That doesn't mean I am advocating a change in strategy. The 139 chest gives you the best chance of winning more keys. Always. With previous events though, we had the 18 chest being the best one. It offered no free currency, so there was not really any risk.

There may be occasions to change the strategy, if we're speaking of that. If I have my final 139 keys, during the last hour of the event, should I still open the big chest? Statistically, you may say yes.

Incidentally, I won 500 keys four times this week. Go figure.

 

[Sir Derf]

I can only infer what I thought you were implying, and whether that's what you meant or not, I thought your messaging needed massaging. And to clarify for others who might also read it the wrong way and not question it.


And again, I slightly disagree with your wording. I don't know if you intended to or not, but you still sound like you are backsliding. Slightly.

So when I said that it becomes one of the worst chests, I am only saying that with hindsight and seeing the results it can end up that way.

Except, I would argue that that's not really hindsight. That's sour grapes. It doesn't end up that way. It can't. I just described and you agreed that the best choice chest is the best choice chest, regardless of what the outcome was.


And all of this is immaterial, because there is a big difference between my Three Card Monty game and the Quest Chests (tm). In Three Card Monty, there is a definite winner each round, and with only two choices, you know that if you lost, the other pile was the better choice. With the Quest Chests (tm), not only were there not one but two other options, you don't know whether if you had selected either of the others if you would have had a better or worse outcome than what you choose. So, even if you had what statistically is confirmed to be a really bad outcome over the course of the event despite following the optimum strategy, you really can't say that you would have done better if you had made different choices.

 

[Sir Derf]

Oh, and yes, if at the end of the event, you have exactly 139 keys left and are presented the 139-key chest as one of your three choices, of course you should...

Nope.

Almost fell for it. Reflexive answer without thinking.

*twiddles thumbs while pondering into space*

...pick the 139-key chest.

Of course. No "may" about it. Its expected outcome doesn't mature or improve with repeated picks, nor do they decrease or degrade because it might be the final, solo pick. 18 additional keys for a 5% chance at 500 keys is still a slightly better tradeoff than a 3% direct increase at the daily and a 12% chance at 200 keys.

 

[Laurelin]

Keep in mind, event rewards aren't zero sum; you don't have a chance of ending the event with negative daily prizes; the worst outcome is that you end with what you started, no daily prizes. Failure to get a bonus is not the same as suffering a loss.

... Unless, of course, you have paid real cash for extra Event Currency in the hope if winning at least one prize. Philosophical concepts aside, I would say that in terms of return on investment, the failure to obtain, in exchange for your money, at least one additional in-game item beyond what you started with is about the most definite example of 'a loss' which could be proposed. Negative daily prizes is one thing (which is impossible), whereas reduced cash in the bank is quite another - and must also be far from impossible, seeing as InnoGames recently stated that Elvenar "has made over $114.4 million since launching in 2015"...

 

[Sir Derf]

Let's think about what you just wrote.

"... paid real cash for extra Event Currency in the hope if winning at least one prize." Not paid cash for the prize. For the hope. Your own wording defeats the point you think you are trying to make.

And further, what you describe is impossible. Your hyperbole means that you straw-manned your own position. It is impossible to experience "... the failure to obtain, in exchange for your money, at least one additional in-game item beyond what you started with." Rotating Chests are the Carnival Duck Pond of Elvenar. Every duck/chest's a winner. Sometimes you get woven finger traps (KP), rubber bouncy balls (troop instants) and plastic spider rings (Supply Windfalls). Sometimes you get back your money/keys, with a little extra. And sometimes you get the giant stuffed teddy bears hanging on the corner poles (Daily Prizes). And for most of us, we're playing with the allowance we're given for doing our usual around-the-house chores(quest rewards), supplemented with the random change we find in our front lawn (pickups)

I stand but what I said. Failure to get a bonus is not the same as suffering a loss.


...And now I want a plastic spider ring. For every finger. And five finger traps.

 

[Sir Derf]

P.S.

Free idea for INNO. Next summer's event, we should be selecting from 3 out of 9 rubber duckies, and the randomizer effect should have a bunch of them float by until it stops for the next three.

 

[Laurelin]

Let's think about what you just wrote.

@Sir Derf : Oh, I have... several times, in fact. I even went so far as to pen still more hyperbole about what I'd actually meant to say in the first place, but then I had another think, and re-read my shiny new hyperbole, and realised that I sounded petty and annoying, so I deleted it. And... well, that's it.

* * * * * * * *

Meanwhile, in other and, I am sure, far more interesting news: there is quite a surprising recent conversation in the US Forum Autumn Zodiac thread, started by a player who states that they received a '24-hour Exclusive' in-game offer to buy various Bear-related items including a set of all three 2019 Bear bases (plus another non-specified 'structure'), bundles of 2019 and/or 2020 Bear Artifacts, and a batch of Pet Food, apparently after fully evolving their Moon Bear - although nobody yet seems sure whether or not the evolution of the Moon Bear was a relevant factor in being presented with the sale offer. Here's the link to the first post in the conversation, in case anyone wants to read the series of posts concerned:

https://us.forum.elvenar.com/index.php?threads/autumn-zodiac-event-discussion-thread.25049/post-190633

 

[Pauly7]

Meanwhile, in other and, I am sure, far more interesting news: there is quite a surprising recent conversation in the US Forum Autumn Zodiac thread, started by a player who states that they received a '24-hour Exclusive' in-game offer to buy various Bear-related items including a set of all three 2019 Bear bases (plus another non-specified 'structure'), bundles of 2019 and/or 2020 Bear Artifacts, and a batch of Pet Food, apparently after fully evolving their Moon Bear - although nobody yet seems sure whether or not the evolution of the Moon Bear was a relevant factor in being presented with the sale offer. Here's the link to the first post in the conversation, in case anyone wants to read the series of posts concerned:

They're being offered 2019 bear bases for $100. You know how that would go down over here. It's similar to when they tried to sell Phoenix Artefacts for crazy money last year.

 

[AstralSoul]

I got that sale as soon as I finished my Moon Bear to level 10

One for all three bases, 2x Bell Fountain, and 9 artifacts for 99€
One with all 9 artifacts for 79€
One with 5 Moon Bear for 49€
One with 12 Pet food for $19€

 

[BlueBlou]

How many times can you buy a packet? Just wondering.

 

[m4rt1n]

Do the devs not align events with what is possible, 20 relics needed when the tourney is almost 2 days away. Maybe the alignment was better in beta????

Maybe the last day will have a surprise quest like scout 5 provinces and upgrade 2 buildings to level 30+ and gain 50 vision vapor, impossible without a spend on diamonds is my point I am trying to make here.

 

[valle]

A tip for future events is to always have a few map provinces ready for this sort of quests. Quests asking for relics comes in almost every event. If you are real desperate crafting them might be possible. Would be a use for an otherwise useless crafting alternative.

 

[m4rt1n]

A tip for future events is to always have a few map provinces ready for this sort of quests. Quests asking for relics comes in almost every event. If you are real desperate crafting them might be possible. Would be a use for an otherwise useless crafting alternative.

Yes a veteran here, but when each scout takes over half a week these days and events are live more days than not, they eventually run out on you. Relics quests using province solving is the most inefficient way in the game to gain relics however.

 

[Gargon667]

Do the devs not align events with what is possible, 20 relics needed when the tourney is almost 2 days away. Maybe the alignment was better in beta????

Maybe the last day will have a surprise quest like scout 5 provinces and upgrade 2 buildings to level 30+ and gain 50 vision vapor, impossible without a spend on diamonds is my point I am trying to make here.

lol remember last event? they had that quest on the last day with no tourney. This time the timing is OK. Who gives a crap? wait 2 days! I have the explored provinces ready and waiting, but why waste them? There is no point...

And did I mention before that Inno has no calendar? They NEVER check for the timing of ANYTHING. Just accept the fact.

 

[valle]

Relics quests using province solving is the most inefficient way in the game to gain relics however.

Why? When tournament is on thats certainly better, but otherwise it's very convenient. Also if you can scout about 2 provinces every week, it shouldn't be a problem to always have say 10 ready when an event begins.

 

[Gargon667]

Why? When tournament is on thats certainly better, but otherwise it's very convenient. Also if you can scout about 2 provinces every week, it shouldn't be a problem to always have say 10 ready when an event begins.

depends a lot on your EE, too if the last encounter gives you 5 relics, you can do the encounter quests with the first 7 encounters and the relics quests with the last encounter in the province. But honestly, getting relics is not really a thing that needs top performing efficiency...