SkyRider99
Mentor
My envy runneth over
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No Spire mystery chests
- Thread starter Silly Bubbles
- Start date
Gargon667
Mentor
Do they sell property in your neighborhood?
FieryArien
Necromancer
Two or three Spires ago I got purple AND golden chest when I was in the last level. Before anyone says they envy me, they should know that my last chapter city got Portal Profits from both of them AND from the final boss chest as well.
CrazyWizard
Shaman
My worst run was 1 DA in 4 months or so, it came back to me eventually.
I am currently hovering around 10 of them.
Sir Derf
Adept
If we grant you your first part, it disproves your second part.
Suppose you achieve exact average accumulated RNG output on the 365,250th day of Elvenar play, and on day 365,251 you experience an unlucky non-average RNG outcome, thus moving you overall average off-target. Mathematically, that can be considered the first day of a whole new series. A new series that, by your first point, can (again) take thousands of years for the RNG to (again) hit average.
Hekata
Artisan
The Spire mixed up and sent you one of mine!
Hekata
Artisan
Well one of my 2 cities is currently (and sadly) trying to break that 4 months record of yours while the other one is just somewhat unlucky and getting about 1 every 3 weeks or so.
Alcaro
Necromancer
the Spire is just weird I have weeks in a row without a DA then suddenly I get at least one every week, then again it dries up. At some point, I think was in spring when I noticed that my stock of time instants is vanishing. Only at that moment I started to pay attention what I get in Spire and to my surprise, I saw that I got everything else except time boosters. It went this way for several months (with very few exceptions) then suddenly it started to "rain" with time instants. Ah, and when I didn't get time instants, was an abundance of Genies.
I have weeks in a row without a DA then suddenly I get at least one every week, then again it dries up. At some point, I think was in spring when I noticed that my stock of time instants is vanishing. Only at that moment I started to pay attention what I get in Spire and to my surprise, I saw that I got everything else except time boosters. It went this way for several months (with very few exceptions) then suddenly it started to "rain" with time instants. Ah, and when I didn't get time instants, was an abundance of Genies.
Gargon667
Mentor
I think that is about the average, 1 every 2 or 3 weeks.
I did once have a run of 10 weeks when I got at least 1 every week! Those were the good times
Nowadays I am making up for that by getting 1 a month or less... when I get depressed I go to the MA and flip the thing until I get some other building Speaking of which that sip of clarity is worth 50 diamonds each! so that prize in there is easily the best prize in the entire spire
Silly Bubbles
Necromancer
Statistics is a theoretical universe. It's not an exact science, it shows the odds of things happening but it doesn't show what WILL happen. In reality, there's a minority of players that get extreme cases of RNG. And I believe that minorities shouldn't get ignored. Every player should get overall fair/same treatment based on their contribution.
I'm not saying to fully eliminate RNG as I have already explained. I am saying to eliminate extreme cases of RNG to make it more fair for everyone or use it to guarantee one prize out of a certain selection of prizes. This way the odds of actually hitting the average will increase considerably.
CrazyWizard
Shaman
Thats where all those free diamonds for. you can buy a magic workshop, you can buy a magic house, you can use them to flip recipes in the academy for more combat buildings.
You can improve your odds in an event using those free diamonds.
So that mechanism already exist.
Extreme cases of RNG only exist on small scales do for example the magic workshop in the spire can have very odd results due to a limited numer of chances.
Your odds in a single event could be horrible (your choices also have a big influence on this which is often ignored)
The more opportunities you get the lower the odds are you are an extreme case(both up and down). as some point extreme cases only exists in theory no longer in practise. and that happens way faster than most would admit.
The only issue might be what happened to me in the past as a pro gamer
During a particular season I had extremely bad luck at tournaments I wanted to win. like really bad luck.
At the same time I won everything at the other tournaments, including from positions I should have never won. dwawing certain cards with a ~1/20-1/40 chance in a certain order 4 times in a row as the only way to win and I won.
The moral is I felt very very unlucky that season, but overall I wasn't it was just that the timing was particulary bad.
Pauly7
Magus
Not to mention the sips of clarity now.
Silly Bubbles
Necromancer
Is it possible that they are already offsetting the extreme cases and making you luckier in other things? The odds of you being very unlucky in one thing and very lucky in another thing in the same time or close to each other aren't very high.
Edit: Missing word.
Silly Bubbles
Necromancer
ElTorro
Novice
Basically, there's roughly a 10% chance you finish a level without getting a mystery chest on it.
That's a 0.1% chance of finishing all three levels without one.
Might seem impossibly low, but with the number of people playing (no idea how many finish the Spire each week), I'd guess that every week, someone somewhere gets to the top without getting a single mystery chest...
That's a 0.1% chance of finishing all three levels without one.
Might seem impossibly low, but with the number of people playing (no idea how many finish the Spire each week), I'd guess that every week, someone somewhere gets to the top without getting a single mystery chest...
CrazyWizard
Shaman
There is a difference between math and reality.
This youtube tells the difference very well. it's about how lucky is too lucky.
Theoretically you could not prove this person cheated at the same time math showed this guy cheated.
at some point extremes become so unlikely you could simply say it does not exist even if there is a mathematical possibility
Pauly7
Magus
If that's right, then 1 in 1,000 isn't impossibly low. That's significant enough that every single week some people won't be getting a mystery chest at all.
Stucon
Illusionist
I'm not sure it is. That is the point I was trying to get over.
ps my keyboard is dieing, lease excuse occasional missig letters