@JackHobbs
How many cities is "in the many cities"? How close to "more like 5%" are you considering?
10% of opening 60 chests is 6, 5% is 3. There's not that much room between the two.
Let me try and recreate the expected outcomes for 60 chest openings at 10% chances of bonus candies.
0 bonus = 60 90%; 60,0 combination = 0.9^60 * C(60,0) = 0.2%
1 bonus = 59 90%, 1 10%; 60,1 combinations = 0.9^59 * 0.1 * C(60,1) = 1.2%
2 bonus = 58 90%, 2 10%; 60,2 combinations = 0.9^58 * 0.1^2 * C(60,2) = 3.9%
3 bonus = 57 90%, 3 10%; 60,3 combinations = 0.9^57 * 0.1^3 * C(60,3) = 8.4%
4 bonus = 56 90%, 4 10%; 60,4 combinations = 0.9^56 * 0.1^4 * C(60,4) = 13.4%
5 bonus = 55 90%, 5 10%; 60,5 combinations = 0.9^55 * 0.1^5 * C(60,5) = 16.6%
6 bonus = 54 90%, 6 10%; 60,6 combinations = 0.9^54 * 0.1^6 * C(60,6) = 16.9%
7 bonus = 53 90%, 7 10%; 60,7 combinations = 0.9^53 * 0.1^7 * C(60,7) = 14.5%
8 bonus = 52 90%, 8 10%; 60,8 combinations = 0.9^52 * 0.1^8 * C(60,8) = 10.7%
9 bonus = 51 90%, 9 10%; 60,9 combinations = 0.9^51 * 0.1^9 * C(60,9) = 6.9%
10 bonus = 50 90%, 10 10%; 60,10 permutations = 0.9^50 * 0.1^10 * C(60,10) = 3.9%
etc.
Cumulative chance 0-5 bonus = 43.7%
Chance of 6 bonus = 16.9%
Cumulative chance 7 or more bonus = 39.4%
Cumulative chance 6 or more bonus = 56.3 %
Overall, slightly better than even odds of success (Bear in mind, we're talking all 71 candy chests, with almost the best return rate.)
Now, to add my personal observation, an n=1, if my notes are accurate, I've so far opened 82 chests (obviously not all 71 candy chests), 57 at 10% odds and 25 at 30% odds, getting 4 (7%) and 15 (60%) bonuses respectively.
i think if they applied the same logic to online gaming, they wouldn't play. the odds always favor the house. but in a poker game w/ 4 other players, the odds are always 1 in 5, as long as you know what you're doing
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And odds of 1 in 5 is not only also a losing proposition from the individual perspective, but way worse than the odds of most if not all online gaming offerings.