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Discussion Carnival

JackHobbs

Seeker
My whole problem with this event is if I'm winning these floats which are all going to join in the carnival... shouldn't they appear on the streets and not act as big buildings between the streets? It's messing with my sense of realism again.
;-))))
 

Sir Derf

Enchanter
You know what would have been cool? If, when you connected these floats together, if the animation could have had the floats continue down the full length.

I realize that's very much not the model of the graphics for the game, but still, it would have been cool...
 
i think some of these number crunchers are taking this way too seriously. i was very good at math but some of these posts are giving me a headache:eek:.
as someone who played a lot of poker, i just look at the numbers that were given and make a good guess. if we don't get enough grand prize buildings to make the set worth while, just disenchant them and make something that you do want:cool:
 

m4rt1n

Artisan
RNG and trying to explain the results will always bring out the statisticians, maybe if they used same logic in the real world of online gambling they would all be rich. :p

The word Random needs explaining to them, and the fact that each spin, the odds are the same as the first spin. 10 spins at 10:1 and the 11th spin is still 10:1. :)
 
i think if they applied the same logic to online gaming, they wouldn't play. the odds always favor the house. but in a poker game w/ 4 other players, the odds are always 1 in 5, as long as you know what you're doing:)[
 

SoggyShorts

Sorcerer
Stats matter because they can (and should) influence choices.
If there is a 1% chance of getting the full set by choosing the "best flag boxes" then you should probably forget about it and open the "best daily" or "best timer" boxes instead.
If the odds are 90% then maybe think differently.

@yo momma love me as someone who has played a lot, dealt at, and even been a games manager at a casino, I can tell you that your odds in poker are never 1/#of players:p
There is a reason why professionals make money- one of the basic "must have" skills is being able to calculate "pot odds".
Also the house takes a cut from every pot, so even if you took turns winning, you'd still lose:(
 
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Sir Derf

Enchanter
@JackHobbs
How many cities is "in the many cities"? How close to "more like 5%" are you considering?

10% of opening 60 chests is 6, 5% is 3. There's not that much room between the two.

Let me try and recreate the expected outcomes for 60 chest openings at 10% chances of bonus candies.

0 bonus = 60 90%; 60,0 combination = 0.9^60 * C(60,0) = 0.2%
1 bonus = 59 90%, 1 10%; 60,1 combinations = 0.9^59 * 0.1 * C(60,1) = 1.2%
2 bonus = 58 90%, 2 10%; 60,2 combinations = 0.9^58 * 0.1^2 * C(60,2) = 3.9%
3 bonus = 57 90%, 3 10%; 60,3 combinations = 0.9^57 * 0.1^3 * C(60,3) = 8.4%
4 bonus = 56 90%, 4 10%; 60,4 combinations = 0.9^56 * 0.1^4 * C(60,4) = 13.4%
5 bonus = 55 90%, 5 10%; 60,5 combinations = 0.9^55 * 0.1^5 * C(60,5) = 16.6%
6 bonus = 54 90%, 6 10%; 60,6 combinations = 0.9^54 * 0.1^6 * C(60,6) = 16.9%
7 bonus = 53 90%, 7 10%; 60,7 combinations = 0.9^53 * 0.1^7 * C(60,7) = 14.5%
8 bonus = 52 90%, 8 10%; 60,8 combinations = 0.9^52 * 0.1^8 * C(60,8) = 10.7%
9 bonus = 51 90%, 9 10%; 60,9 combinations = 0.9^51 * 0.1^9 * C(60,9) = 6.9%
10 bonus = 50 90%, 10 10%; 60,10 permutations = 0.9^50 * 0.1^10 * C(60,10) = 3.9%
etc.

Cumulative chance 0-5 bonus = 43.7%
Chance of 6 bonus = 16.9%
Cumulative chance 7 or more bonus = 39.4%

Cumulative chance 6 or more bonus = 56.3 %

Overall, slightly better than even odds of success (Bear in mind, we're talking all 71 candy chests, with almost the best return rate.)





Now, to add my personal observation, an n=1, if my notes are accurate, I've so far opened 82 chests (obviously not all 71 candy chests), 57 at 10% odds and 25 at 30% odds, getting 4 (7%) and 15 (60%) bonuses respectively.

i think if they applied the same logic to online gaming, they wouldn't play. the odds always favor the house. but in a poker game w/ 4 other players, the odds are always 1 in 5, as long as you know what you're doing:)[
And odds of 1 in 5 is not only also a losing proposition from the individual perspective, but way worse than the odds of most if not all online gaming offerings.
 
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And odds of 1 in 5 is not only also a losing proposition from the individual perspective, but way worse than the odds of most if not all online gaming offerings.
no, not when the pot is 5 times what you've put into it. 100% of the money goes back to the players. online gaming companies can afford to spend lots on advertising and employee salaries for a reason.

but we'd better be careful, i think i hear the "off-topic" police comin'.

so, back to the topic, i wouldn't say that this carnival was a scam, like when a carnival game asks for $5 for a 1 in 10 chance to win an $8 stuffed animal, but i do think that this event has some of the worst prizes out of any of the long events i've seen in this game. it's only fitting that this event had a carnival theme.
 

SoggyShorts

Sorcerer
no, not when the pot is 5 times what you've put into it. 100% of the money goes back to the players. online gaming companies can afford to spend lots on advertising and employee salaries for a reason.
95-99%, don't forget the rake.

For the event, I'm at a point where I need just barely better than a average luck in order to get the set...a 1-5% difference might mean everything... I guess we'll see.
 

Sir Derf

Enchanter
And odds of 1 in 5 is not only also a losing proposition from the individual perspective, but way worse than the odds of most if not all online gaming offerings.
no, not when the pot is 5 times what you've put into it. 100% of the money goes back to the players. online gaming companies can afford to spend lots on advertising and employee salaries for a reason.
No, whatever the size of the pot. Odds of 1:5 on $100 and odds of 1:5 on $500 are still odds of 1:5. The game might be zero sum, that one of the five is guaranteed to be the winner, doesn't change the fact the other four are guaranteed to be losers.


so, back to the topic, i wouldn't say that this carnival was a scam, like when a carnival game asks for $5 for a 1 in 10 chance to win an $8 stuffed animal, but i do think that this event has some of the worst prizes out of any of the long events i've seen in this game. it's only fitting that this event had a carnival theme.
Except....this carnival gave out free Candy to every player. You might not like the prize selection at this carnival, but there were no requirements to pay actual money. We received 100 Candy from the ticket booth when we first arrived, varying amounts of candy by participating in games of skill, and apparently there's some roustabout wandering all over the town just dropping them on the ground. (Ooh! Piece of Candy! Ooh! Piece of Candy!)
 

Killiak

Shaman
and apparently there's some roustabout wandering all over the town just dropping them on the ground. (Ooh! Piece of Candy! Ooh! Piece of Candy!)
Follow the trail of candy, untill you get to the white carriage. The Bard inside will promise you lots more candy if you just get in....
 

Mr.Dave

Adventurer
Is there any big advantage in completing ALL the quests, aside from getting the candies for each one? Some kind of "Hey, you did it!" award? I'm up to "Buy 16 Knowledge Points" with only 9 quests to go after that. But buying KP causes a permanent increase in costs and I would rather avoid that in case the next big event requires buying KP in an early quest (like this event did).
 

m4rt1n

Artisan
Is there any big advantage in completing ALL the quests, aside from getting the candies for each one? Some kind of "Hey, you did it!" award? I'm up to "Buy 16 Knowledge Points" with only 9 quests to go after that. But buying KP causes a permanent increase in costs and I would rather avoid that in case the next big event requires buying KP in an early quest (like this event did).
You have a chance of getting the complete set of Grand Prizes if you complete all the quests.

Kp only increases by 500 gold each time, and as you progress through the game you have a lot more gold to dispose of. I buy kp regularly anyway and my costs are now 1200k per kp and I still manage to buy them easily for every event. :)
 

SoggyShorts

Sorcerer
Is there any big advantage in completing ALL the quests, aside from getting the candies for each one? Some kind of "Hey, you did it!" award? I'm up to "Buy 16 Knowledge Points" with only 9 quests to go after that. But buying KP causes a permanent increase in costs and I would rather avoid that in case the next big event requires buying KP in an early quest (like this event did).
Martin is right, your coin income increases far faster ghan cost to buy KP. The next major seasonal event is about three months away oh, I'm sure your income will increase by then so go for it:)
 

Sir Derf

Enchanter
Is there any big advantage in completing ALL the quests, aside from getting the candies for each one? Some kind of "Hey, you did it!" award? I'm up to "Buy 16 Knowledge Points" with only 9 quests to go after that. But buying KP causes a permanent increase in costs and I would rather avoid that in case the next big event requires buying KP in an early quest (like this event did).
I think the previous people did not really answer the question you asked. No, there is no special extra bonus for completing all the quests. I can confirm that the 85th sequential quest gives 40 candies only, and while we're not at the 22nd day, Beta only got the expected 35 candies for it and there's no reason to expect anything different.
 

Gomplett

Spellcaster
Yeah managed to get the full set. Has anyone got any plans how to place it ? Just demolished my city to try and fit consrtucts in don't want to place it and find out not enough room
I asked this earlier in the thread. I’ve only seen one way to put them all together. NB they have different numbers of bonuses so u need to work it out carefully.
Just to annoy everyone this looks like the first event I will complete and even without that I have thoroughly enjoyed it and found it more engaging than previous events.
If anyone knows how I can get in touch with second lovely figure waving at the flags please send me her contact details. Discretion appreciated ie don’t tell the wife :rolleyes:
 

Sir Derf

Enchanter
So, if I can get 900 more candies, I'm assured to get the Jester's Tavern but at least the skin of my teeth.

So, :D.
*by

For those of you holding your breath...

6 days later and I'm up about 400 candies to 434 candies. 8 days to go, should top 900, thus guaranteeing Jester's Tavern even without bonus candies. :D:D:D
 

Sir Derf

Enchanter
Yeah managed to get the full set. Has anyone got any plans how to place it ? Just demolished my city to try and fit consrtucts in don't want to place it and find out not enough room
Fountain wants to touch all 4 others, so it goes in the middle.
Band and Fireworks want to touch 2, so placed around the fountain and touching at least one neighbor, no prob.

That leaves Banquet and Tavern, which each want to touch 3, so placed against Fountain and touching both neighbors.

I found multiple variations, for example:
1) Banquet centered North, Firework top justified East, Band left justified South, Tavern top justified West.
2) Banquet left justified north, Firework top justified East, Band right justified South, Tavern bottom justified West.
3) Tavern right justified North, Banquet top East, Firework bottom East, Band top justified West
4) Banquet top justified East, Firework right South, Band top West, Tavern left justified North
 

Sir Derf

Enchanter
I've thought about this in previous events, but hadn't mentioned yet...

Who is leaving all these candies behind all over the outskirts of my city? They must be giants, because those candies are HUGE. A single candy looks to be as wide as the people strolling my streets are tall, so on the order of 5-6 feet long!
 

SoggyShorts

Sorcerer
@Sir Derf
What are my odds if I need 36 more flags and have 32 candies, and my quests are up to date?
Pretty decent pickup around city, maybe 20 per day? 25 tops?
I think I'm screwed...
 
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