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Discussion Carnival

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Muf-Muf, Feb 19, 2019.

  1. Killiak

    Killiak Shaman

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2016
     
  2. Sir Derf

    Sir Derf Enchanter

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2018
    36 more flags, at the worst non-bonus rate of 25/chest needs 900 candies; best non-bonus rate of 20/chest needs 720 candies, at the expected next-best with bonus 19/chest rate of the Steel 48 chest needs 684 candies; best bonus rate of 16.5/chest from either 24 or Wood 48 chests needs 594 candies.

    There are 7 days left; that's 245 candies, add to your current 32 candies and you'll have 277 candies. Even at ideal chests and expected bonus rates, that's 349 candies, or nearly 50 candies per day (7 days).

    I think you are, to paraphrase your stated concern, fastened to a wall with a helically-wound inclined plane. :oops:


    Now, you could achieve the highly improbable return rate, where you only open from the 6 chests where the bonus pays more than the chest cost and you always get the bonus, at which point you achieve practical infinite flags, subject to the limit on the number of clicks you can perform before the quest ends. As I type, there are 230 hours left to the event. Forgetting the animation times, network delays, etc, assuming you can click once/second at two clicks per chest opening, that's 414,000 chests, potentially gross 82.8m, net 53.4m candies and about 2.67m Grand Prizes. That's only 0.1^414,000 odds, or 10^-413,998 %. 1) you might break the game, if INNO used (int) variables to count the number of an instant you have in your inventory. 2) I would duck about every 10 minutes, in order to dodge the lightning bolts. :p
     
    SoggyShorts likes this.
  3. SoggyShorts

    SoggyShorts Sorcerer

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2018
    @Sir Derf
    The account is on us live, so I have nine days and 13 hours left. Candies around the city should give more than one sometimes so 25 per day is possible plus the 35 from quest making 60 a day bringing me oh so close to the unlikely 594 number.:(
     
  4. Sir Derf

    Sir Derf Enchanter

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2018
    Brain fart. 9, not 7 days. 315 not 245 candies, 347 total. That leaves 247 candies for my best-expected case, or just over 27 candies/day pickup.

    Pray to the gods of RNGs and carry a lightning rod.
     
    m4rt1n likes this.
  5. TomColBadil

    TomColBadil Adventurer

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2018
    Your chance of success is about 30 % according to my simulation

    [​IMG]
     
    SoggyShorts likes this.
  6. Sir Derf

    Sir Derf Enchanter

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2018
    :cool:

    Opened several chests earlier today, got to 9 flags short of Jester's Tavern (+4 3x4 Orcish Floats for crafting)

    Gradually collected just enough to open ONE more chest on Orcish Float day... Bonus candies. Was able to open several more chests, one more bonus candies, bada-bing bada-boom, completed Jester's Tavern, and one more Orcish Float.

    If my notes are correct, that's:
    13 days
    2,145 sequential + 455 daily + 669 pickup (51.5 candies per day?!) = 3,269 initial candies
    3,269 initial candies + 1,175 bonus candies= 4,444 effective candies

    101 chests
    181 flags (18.1 initial candies/flag, 24.5 effective candies/flag?!)
    10 bonus candy results (9.9%)

    9 Grand Prizes (including the full 5-piece set)
    10 Elvish Floats and 4 Orcish Floats (13.9% daily)
    198 squares of craftabale squares, good for 17,820 Spell Fragments at my current Level 3 Magic Academy.


    :D:D:D

    On the minus side:

    1) I'm sitting on a wealth of potential Spell Fragments and I'm out of Silk relics to make more Catalysts. o_O
    2) I placed the 4 pieces of Carnival set along with two backlogged sets in my city 6 days ago. I don't have the space in my current or projected end-of-current-chapter city planning to add the Jester's Tavern to my map. :oops:

    Elvenar First World Problems. :rolleyes:
     
    SoggyShorts likes this.
  7. Killiak

    Killiak Shaman

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2016
  8. TomColBadil

    TomColBadil Adventurer

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2018
    You didn't pick up 669 candies: you got some free candies when the event started (I'm not sure on the amount, I think 50?), then if you got the event email that's another 100 candies.
     
    m4rt1n and SoggyShorts like this.
  9. Gomplett

    Gomplett Spellcaster

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2018
    I’ve just finished the main quests and I’m still 4 flags short of the marching band.
    My “strategy” was every time to select the chest that produced the mist flags per candies....
    I’ll try something different next time
     
  10. m4rt1n

    m4rt1n Summoner

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2017
    That strategy worked for me and now I only need 4 flags for the final set building.
    It boils down to how lucky you are and no one particular strategy can be bettor or worse than another, especially if your luck is good. :)
     
  11. Gomplett

    Gomplett Spellcaster

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2018
    I’ve got loads of stuff along the way so I’m well happy with the outcome. I can see that whatever I have now will need to be replaced in the not too distant future- these buildings are replacing the Christmas market set
     
    m4rt1n likes this.
  12. LadyHavva

    LadyHavva Illusionist

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2018
    My winter market set (at least the christmas trees) will be staying for quite a while and will be the first target of my RR spells.
     
    m4rt1n likes this.
  13. Sir Derf

    Sir Derf Enchanter

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2018
    Correction:
    50 startup + 100 e-mailed + 2,145 sequential + 455 daily + 519 pickup (39.9 candies per day?!) = 3,269 initial candies

    I thought that felt unrealistic.

    Thanks.

    Not that bad, not the best, but at least in this event, if your primary goal was to maximize flag/Grand Prize progress, every little bit helped.

    In this event, the 75 and 150 bonus chests were deceptively both equally slightly better than the 200 bonus chest, and at the bottom of the pile, the no bonus 20 chest was better than 30% 10 bonus 25 chest (and the other no bonus chest).

    I look to Platinum Leaf for the computations for the event chests, after I independently verified their process and values on an earlier event.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 7, 2019
  14. m4rt1n

    m4rt1n Summoner

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2017
    Still despite all the calculations and statistic's, RNG=Luck so some players will be within the statistical range and some will be way off on the good and bad side either way, so again due to the Big Nerf some players are unfortunately on the bad side and very disappointed. On the other hand there are players who have done far better than expected, hence balancing the odds.
     
  15. SoggyShorts

    SoggyShorts Sorcerer

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2018
    I'd suggest running some numbers on that. The Christmas market set was the most powerful per square buildings in the game, and you shouldn't outgrow them for several chapters
     
  16. FieryArien

    FieryArien Enchanter

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2018
    Luck in this event has too huge impact on results. I’ve got two cities (let’s call them W and F according to their worlds) and I had the same goal for them: Portal profits. I don’t care for the main set except for getting spell fragments from it. In both cities I had about 3050 candies, serial quests were finished and the daily quests were up to date. Neither of the cities had opened any chests before today. The chests I opened were chosen using the same priorities in both cities.

    From this same starting point, this is how I finished:
    (first column is W, second is F, third is reward)
    18x 9x Portal Profit 20% (today’s daily special)
    11x 10x Portal Profit 15%
    2x 6x Portal Profit 10%
    3x 4x Portal Profit 5%
    And plenty of supplies instants in both cities. :)
    W is left with 39 candies and mere 2 flags are missing to get the Jesters Tavern.
    F is left with 3 candies and still 24 flags are missing to get the Jesters Tavern (in other words 4 flags till Carting Library).

    I did get some more bonus candies from the chests in W, but it didn’t feel that much. Also I got the 71 candy chest more often in W and most of the time I pulled the daily special out of it (actually I pulled the daily special once also from the 20 candies chest which I took once or twice due to other two bad chest choices). Sadly it was the F city that needed the PProfits more, because it hasn’t reached and passed the Orcs chapter yet.

    Oh, and I really hate the rotating chests. It takes ages to spend the candies. The animation (at least on the iPad) is slow and extremely annoying!!!
     
    shadowblack and SoggyShorts like this.
  17. Sir Derf

    Sir Derf Enchanter

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2018
    @FieryArien

    Interesting findings, but we need know a little more information to get a better appreciation for your results.

    Your goal was Portal Profits. That means you're looking at the Daily Prize percentages, which vary from 5 to 30%, and the 45, 40 and 30% chances in the three biggest chests. To better judge your results, we need to know how many times you tried for each chest.
     
  18. FieryArien

    FieryArien Enchanter

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2018
    My point wasn’t to show precisely how un/lucky my draws were. I didn’t care. My complaint isn’t about what I did or didn’t get (I’m satisfied with the event already), but how random it is. It looks like the two layers of randomness (the first one in the selection of the three chests and the second one in the chest itself) is just too much. In my opinion.

    You judged correctly that I preferred the three chests that already contained Portal Profit spell as a regular drop. How many times exactly did I open each of them I don’t know. How many times my selection didn’t contain any of these three chests I don’t know (in those cases I was also influenced by another preference: supplies instant rather than coins instant).
     
  19. Sir Derf

    Sir Derf Enchanter

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2018
    Again, I'm not sure that a proper assessment of if it is "just too much" without doing the math to actually quantify how much it was.

    Let's just focus on one of your data points - The biggest difference (18 vs. 9) between your Daily Prize takes. You said you preferred the three chests with Portal Profits in the drops (the 71 and the two 48s). Did you realize that the Steel 48 had the absolute worst Daily chance (nearly double any other)? Did you realize that the 23 and 25 chests had the second and third best chance at Daily?

    I'm not sure what the expected payouts for each chest are for Portal Profits combining the straight drops and that it was Portal Profit Daily day. I'm not sure what the optimum strategy for chest selection would be on that day. I don't know if you were following a best, or even overall consistent, strategy. I don't know what the typical gains would have been, what the spread was and the odds on the spread.

    My gut tells me that even with an optimum strategy, the range of expected Daily Prize wins at your level of spreading could easily have been x+/-5 50% of the time, that your pair of observations of 18 vs 9 could very easily be not that unusual.
     
  20. Sir Derf

    Sir Derf Enchanter

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2018
    Having said all that, I realize that I don't think I'm really addressing the flavor of your comment.

    What would you have preferred?

    Simply having a store with 10 prizes at differing amounts, and you make a direct purchase, selecting the items you want with their differing prices?

    Being randomly presented with 3 out of ten prizes each time, and being able to choose which one you want (again with differing prices)?

    Simply having a prize wheel which randomly (not necessarily at the same odds) gives you a different prize each time?
     

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