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Discussion Carnival

TomColBadil

Adventurer
Possible, yes but for many it won't happen.
Your calculation is based on receiving an average number of free candies when you open chests, therefore if everyone followed those numbers exactly, then about half are going to fail.
You are right, I didn't consider the huge variance on the candies found in the chests.

I wrote a little bit of code to simulate the number of candies needed to get 180 flags on a population of 10000 subjects.

  • The chests offered are chosen randomly and every chest has the same chance to show up
  • You always open the chest with the best candy-to-flag ratio in this order (best to worst): dark wood and gold/orange > purple > blue and red > sea green > light wood > green > bronze
  • You start with 50 candies and get 100 more from the newsletter. You get 2145 from sequential quests and 770 from dailies. The total amount without the town pickups is 3065.

Here's the cumulative distribution function for the total number of candies needed to get 180 flags:

Here's the cumulative distribution function for the candy pickups needed per day:
 

Sir Derf

Enchanter
It's not clear if it's a guarantee or random, but apparently you can try for 150 additional candies through the Elvenar Instagram page.
 

m4rt1n

Artisan
It's not clear if it's a guarantee or random, but apparently you can try for 150 additional candies through the Elvenar Instagram page.
Another random as I can not sign up and like again as I did that in the last event and am already a subscriber. I hate social media and this game is my escapism, so pushing again leaves us loyal quiet players on the back foot yet again. :(
 

Sir Derf

Enchanter
How do you get 19.5, after as the minimum is 20 candy per flag? :eek:
I was going to say "I provided all my info in my post."
At 143 flags from 2,791 initial candies, that's a 19.5 candies/flags return. :cool:
And then I realized that you were going with the observation of the chest costs vs. the immediate payback of 1, 2 or 3 flags, i.e. 20 candies to open a chest for 1 flag, etc..

What you're not factoring in is that most of the chests include a chance of giving you additional candies, which allow you to open additional chests, which allow you to get additional flags. This is like compound interest, allowing a hidden additional benefit favoring some chests over others.

To which I then say "I provided all my info in my post."
I opened 82 chests, receiving 750 bonus candies (+27%), for a total of 3,541 candies.

At 143 flags from 2,791 initial candies, that's a 19.5 candies/flags return. :cool:
 

Sir Derf

Enchanter
I'm a little embarrased by this. I'm a number-cruncher, as if you couldn't tell, and I posted the following earlier...

At 143 flags from 2,791 initial candies, that's a 19.5 candies/flags return. :cool:


That leaves 15 days of 35 candies daily quests plus let's say 25 candies pickup, for possibly 900 more candies, with 37 flags to go, so attempting 24 candies/flag return. :( I should be able to get GP8, the Carting Library, probably not the Jester's Tavern setpiece 5/5 :mad:
Given the chests I was opening, I was expecting a 17.27 candies/flag, but by the vagaries of chance I only achieved 19.5. That is unfortunate; bigger number is bad.

But, projecting my future needs as requiring 24 candies/flag to achieve the Jester's Tavern and deciding I would not make it, bigger number is bad, what was I saying? 24 candies/flag would be a inefficient exchange rate, but that does not mean it would be an unattainable exchange. Even assuming no bonus candies from the chests, only one chest has payout of worse than 24 candies/flag. So, if I can get 900 more candies, I'm assured to get the Jester's Tavern but at least the skin of my teeth.

So, :D.
 

m4rt1n

Artisan
I completed the sequential quest list today, and still need 20 flags for the 5th set building. I'm hopeful of making it with the daily quests and pick up now, but doubt I'll get as far as the wishing well.
I stopped aiming for dailies and opened whichever chest had the best odds of winning candies. :)
 

Viskyar

Conjurer
This is like compound interest, allowing a hidden additional benefit favoring some chests over others.
You will go to the cinema. You have $ 20.
One ticket costs $ 20.
Everything is fine.
You find $ 20 on the way.
You already have $ 40 - how does the movie ticket cost more than $ 20?
With these $ 40 you can buy 2 tickets. But you can not buy a ticket, less than $ 20, the cashier does not offer such tickets.
Even you can find $ 1000 on the road, you still can not buy a ticket under $ 20. You can buy more tickets, but not cheaper.
 

SoggyShorts

Sorcerer
@Viskyar
Here's your movie theater metaphor:
You buy a coke for $50
The cashier gives you 2 cokes.
Your cost per coke is $25

When you win candies, you get "free" chests.
That brings the average cost per flag down.

E.g.
You spend 71 candies to open a box.
You win 200 candies.(and 3 flags)
You open 10x the 20 box for 10 flags.
You now have 71 fewer candies than when you started, and 13 flags.
What is your cost per flag?
71/13=5.5
 

blueman54

Novice
finished the main quest lines in carnival but only got 3 of the main prizes,,will I be able to complete them all only using the daily 35 candies ????
 
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Viskyar

Conjurer
When you win candies, you get "free" chests.
That brings the average cost per flag down.
You take candy as a reward from a chest. With these candy then you buy a flag from ANOTHER box.
You do not get more flags from THIS BOX.
You have 100 candy and perfect luck - the roulette gives you only boxes 20 candy per flag. You get 5 Flags + 5 other awards. If one (or all - it does not matter) of these other awards is 100 candy, and you still have the perfect luck, you will get another 5 flags - each of 20 candy. At the end you will have spent 200 candy for 10 flags.
Deflation of the minimum price of 20 candy for a flag can only exist if some chest gives a prize MORE flags - if for these 20 candy you get 2 or more of the flag, instead of 1. But 2 or 3 Flag Inno games give for more than 20 candy - 47, 48, 71.
 

SoggyShorts

Sorcerer
@Viskyar
You are looking at it the wrong way. what matters in an event is how many candies you can get from quests and around your city and how many prizes those will get you.
Figuring out the average cost Per flag is useful in determining what prizes and chests to go for.

Take your information:
Every flag costs 20 candies?
You need 180 flags?
So you need 3600 candies?
Wrong. It can be done with far fewer candies.
3600 is only the absolute worst case scenario.
What we are determining is the actual statistical probabilities.

The angle you were using by counting free candies as candies spent is wrong and doesn't help at all.
Trust me we've been over this for a dozen major events now.

Edit: one more attempt at explaining information what we mean:
The only things that matter when figuring out your return on investment are what you walked in with and what you walk away with. In this case that refers to how many candies you bring to the table and how many flags they get you. The value and quality of your return on investment is expressed by how many flags you got per candy.
 
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OldHag

Alchemist
I don't like the changes you've made to the event at all.
The choice/option as to which dailies we would like to go for has been removed therefore how we would like to play the events.
You've dropped the double days. A 9*6 5 set grand prize, too big and too many pieces in my opinion.
Last but not least, where's the little dudes skipping across the screen giving rewards along the way to the grand prizes.

Thumbs down from me.
 
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Davemc

Spellcaster
Yeah managed to get the full set. Has anyone got any plans how to place it ? Just demolished my city to try and fit consrtucts in don't want to place it and find out not enough room
 

Sir Derf

Enchanter
To recognize the difference, you need to keep the revenue streams separate. In the movie analogy, consider the difference between flat tickets at $5 and tickets that give TheaterBucks rewards at $6.

A $30 allowance allows you to buy 6 normal tickets establishing a base rate of $5/ticket.
Alternatively, your $30 allowance would allows you to buy only 5 premium tickets at a worse rate of $6/ticket.

But, in the RewardProgram, purchasing a $6 ticket includes a $2 TheaterBucks voucher, good towards future tickets at the normal price. With your 5 tickets you also got total of $10 in TheaterBucks, which allows you to get 2 more tickets.

If TheaterBucks were regular dollars, then you spent $30+$10=$40 for 7 tickets, at a less-than-ideal rate of $5.71/ticket, which is worse than $5/ticket. But that is the wrong way to look at it. Actually, for your initial $30 allowance you were ultimately able to get 7 tickets, at an improved rate of $4.28/ticket.


This is what we face with the various chests in this, and previous quests. Substitute "candies" for "dollars", "flags" for "tickets" and "bonus candies" for "TheaterBucks".



Suppose you have an allowance of 500 candies and are faced with a regular chest at 20 candies/chest and a chest that gives bonus candies at 24 candies/chest, both offering a single flag.

If you go with the 20 candy chest, you can open 25 of them, getting 25 flags, at a base return of 20 candies/flag.

If you go with the 24 candy chest, you can only open 20 of them, getting only 20 flags, at a worse rate of 24 candies/flag (and 20 leftover candies, but who's counting. For the rest of the scenario, round down).

But, the 24 candy chest offers TheaterBucks with a 10% chance of 75 bonus candies. This could be thought of as getting 7.5 bonus candies with each 24 candy chest. 20 chests = 150 more candies, allowing you to open 6 more premium chests, getting 6 more flags. Oh, and those 6 chests gave 45 more candies, allowing you to open another chest, for another flag. (Elvenar is better than my TheaterBucks program, in that you can get rewards for using your rewards.)

You could say that you spent a total of 480+144+24=648 candies and got 27 flags, at a less-than-ideal rate of 24 candies/flag, but that's forgetting that you started with only the initial allowance of 500 candies. Actually, for your initial payment of 480 candies you were ultimately able to get 27 flags, at an improved rate of 17.8 candies/flag.
 

JackHobbs

Seeker
The Marths to me seem a bit askew/
1. You need 180 flags to get the 5 Set prizes.
2. This requires 60 Purple chests @71 => 60 * 71 = 4,260 Candies.
3. All sequential quests plus daily quests plus 12 pickups per day = 2,145 +770 + 260 = 3,175
4. This leaves a shortfall of 1,085...WHICH you have to make up ion those purple chests giving you 200 extra Candies.

Now here's the rub..If according to the Purple Chest pick up text you chances of getting the 200 Candies were indeed 10% then FINE...but in the many cities I have tried it's more like 5%.

Again INNO has been MEAN in changing the BETA formulas to its current set up..Surely it would be sound business sense to enthuse and entice players to get the Set almost certainly through skill than LUCK. Most players can finish the 80 odd sequential quests in half the allocated time of 22 days. Why don;t they add say 15 more quests (to 100) or bring the Set prices down to 1,3,5,6,7 or EVEN raise the 10% to 20% for getting candies from Chests With Crafting now established as a popular game option, folk WILL want extra buildings to convert to spell fragments,,,so will go the extra mile and purchase Candies through Diamonds.

However, the MUPPET of a beancounter in INNO seemed to think differently and we have NOT REALLY changed the event out of the Double Days scenario.

Not impressed...and will probably raze my cities and quit all...Such a shame but in this dog eat dog world and emphasis on 'The Gamble' its hardly surprising.

Well...they are my thoughts....Shame on you INNO....