MagicTasha
Spellcaster
What is happening with the crafting of pet food? More players in my FS are also questioning why its becoming so scarce.
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What is happening with the crafting of pet food? More players in my FS are also questioning why its becoming so scarce.
This is the point that, in my experience, it doesn't stack up. For a long period of time I've averaged no more than 5 pet foods a week appearing. I'm not saying that has changed of late, but I question whether every recipe has an even chance of appearing.If you see all 28 recipe pools (4 per day) you should be seeing 6-7 pet food per week on average.
This is the point that, in my experience, it doesn't stack up. For a long period of time I've averaged no more than 5 pet foods a week appearing. I'm not saying that has changed of late, but I question whether every recipe has an even chance of appearing.
I usually find that if I craft relics, the next round of recipes will contain pet food. Not sure if that would work every time, but it's pretty regular in my Magic Academy.
Do you have the DATA related to fighting buildings?I have the idea it improved when they introduced the recipe per location + added the 1650 recipe.
It's all in the eye of the beholder,
As humans we always seek patterns, as they teach us things and avoid danger as a result.
And the lovely issue of conformation bias when researching something
To solve this once and for all I decided to deplete a unused account of it's diamonds and collect 280 datapoints (10 weeks) taken all today 22 june 2021 so we can see what it would average out to at the current format.
The recipe pool consists of:
View attachment 5606
- 9 different relic recipes
- 4 different petfood recipes
- Stonehenge Artefact recipe (STA)
- Phoenix Artefact recipe (PHA)
We see the following:
10 week average: 8.3 petfood
- Week 1: 8 petfood
- Week 2: 8 petfood
- Week 3: 7 petfood
- Week 4: 8 petfood
- Week 5: 11 petfood
- Week 6: 5 petfood
- Week 7: 6 petfood
- Week 8: 12 petfood
- Week 9: 12 petfood
- Week 10: 6 Petfood
This seems to be quite accurate with my finding: since the "fixed position" change I already felt I got more petfood than before which was 6-7 a week. so I expect 8 to be a good number.
You can also see the rewards vary wildy per week from 5 in the worst week to 12 in the best week.
I am pretty confident if I would take another 280 datapoint example we would see something very similar.
ps: this is the perfect case scenario where you see all recipe pools and complete each of the petfoods before the recipes swap to the next pool.
I Intend to get another dataset including combat buildings, but due to more variation anf my feeling that the odds for UUU is lower than the other 2, i want a much bigger dataset.Do you have the DATA related to fighting buildings?
I Intend to get another dataset including combat buildings, but due to more variation anf my feeling that the odds for UUU is lower than the other 2, i want a much bigger dataset.
The issie is that it will take a few hours to collect, note and work the data so i need to find time.for that. Especially since I want consecutive data and not combined snippets. So I need to make 1 big data run.
This is interesting data indeed, and thanks for the experiment.We see the following:
10 week average: 8.3 petfood
- Week 1: 8 petfood
- Week 2: 8 petfood
- Week 3: 7 petfood
- Week 4: 8 petfood
- Week 5: 11 petfood
- Week 6: 5 petfood
- Week 7: 6 petfood
- Week 8: 12 petfood
- Week 9: 12 petfood
- Week 10: 6 Petfood
Recipe | Count | Percent | Percent Guess |
---|---|---|---|
Relic (9 Recipes) | 191 (about 21 each?) | 68.21% (7.58% each?) | 67.5% (7.5% each) |
Pet Food (4 recipes) | 72 (about 18 each?) | 25.71% (6.42% each?) | 26% (6.5% each) |
Stonehenge Artifact | 6 | 2.14% | 2% |
Phoenix Artifact | 11 | 3.92% | 4.5% |
I wonder if that makes my theory of Relics and Pet Foods having the same probability more likely or less likely...@CrazyWizard 's data breakdown... 28 Rotations, 10 weeks, 280 Total Recipes
Recipe Count Percent Percent Guess Relic (9 Recipes) 191 (about 21 each?) 68.21% (7.58% each?) 67.5% (7.5% each) Pet Food (4 recipes) 72 (about 18 each?) 25.71% (6.42% each?) 26% (6.5% each) Stonehenge Artifact 6 2.14% 2% Phoenix Artifact 11 3.92% 4.5%
Point 3 is the most likely suspect.This is interesting data indeed, and thanks for the experiment.
However, it still doesn't quite marry with my recent experience. I have no such datasets, but I do have a couple of fixed points and a constant:
I currently have 8 more petfoods than I did 7 weeks and 6 days ago. During that time I have always used 4 a week. No more, no less. So during this time (let's call it 8 weeks) I have gathered exactly 5 pet foods a week. So there's a few possibilities for this difference:
I actually think all the above are possible. 1 is more likely than 2, for sure, but I will add to this my subjective idea that I haven't been getting more than 5 pet foods a week for a long time. I can't rule out number 3. I am unlikely to miss them, but I wouldn't be surprised if I missed one rotation a week perhaps.
- I have had a run of bad luck for the period of the last 8 weeks
- You had a run of good luck with your 10 week dataset
- I missed crafting some
- There is a variable probability for receiving petfood which has improved recently
Lol, see that all too often and add to that phoenix or stonehenge artifacts to tempt you to use your blue prints, while you have to wait for next cycle for the relics/pet food you wanted.@CrazyWizard and @Sir Derf I am very impressed about your tables. There is a lot of work in them. I must admit that I have a much easier formula:
1. I need Pet Food - I will only get Relics to craft
2. I need Relics - I will only get Pet Food to craft.
I am using each 2 weeks 4 LR, 4 mage and 2 UUU buildings for pretty much years now.I do not believe UUU to be more rare than the other 2 buildings.
I think they may have removed probabilities from all the standard recipes when they introduced this new system, the only recipes that I would think are more rare than others are the special ones, like artifacts etc.
Of course because of the new system the 5 slots have varying probabilities, because of the number of possible recipes in each slot. But within a slot each recipe might have the same probability to show up.
Just a feeling though...
I'm inclined to agree and you make a good point that there will be occasions where crafting one could block the next one from appearing... although where possible I try to make sure that slot is free for the next rotation... it won't happen on every occasion though.Point 3 is the most likely suspect.
Reset your timer.I have been making lots of relics in the last weeks!! No pet food. Unless it comes up at night when I am asleep. I have now decided not to craft at all until the pet food turns up.