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Question Pet food

Pauly7

Magus
I'm not aware of any big recent change, though I do believe that Inno makes constant minor adjustments to the probabilities of each one appearing, even though we can't see it.

As I say, though, I haven't noticed any big changes lately. I can rely on pet food appearing in the MA at roughly 4-5 a week. If you are in short supply of them then perhaps you are using more than this number, or perhaps you are missing some. In the short term you can get unlucky and then this makes it seem like it's drying up. For example, it's perfectly within the realms of possibility that you may go a couple of weeks only seeing 2 each week. It should even out in the long run though.
 

BlueBlou

Illusionist
Could partly be because it shares the same slot as relics and the phoenix and other craftable artifacts. The latter has not so long been with us. Still a random appearance as far as I know and as with anything random, some cities will see it more than others. One of my cities rarely sees it. I am making other plans in that city as I am too afraid to use the few pet food I do have there as I do not want to have zero pet food. Might be same effect, but it feels better not to have zero in stock.
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
What is happening with the crafting of pet food? More players in my FS are also questioning why its becoming so scarce.

Like all RNG there are good and there are bad times.
It's all about balancing your usage.
So it's a perception issue.

If you see all 28 recipe pools (4 per day) you should be seeing 6-7 pet food per week on average.

If you get 9 in a week and you use them all, and then get 4 the next week you feel screwed, but if you had used only 6 that week, then those missing 2-3 pet food would have been compensated in the week before.

It's all about managing recources, and once you do your stock will grow very slowly to something like this:
1624364411380.png


It's an issue many players have, in good times they feel that is the norm, and in bad time...[pick something to blame for it]
RNG on the long term always evens out to average, it's a game of large numbers. nobody is lucky all the time and nobody is unlucky all the time.
At some point statistics take over and make it impossible, eventually everyone gets about the same over an extented period of time.

It's with per food, it's with combat buildings and it's with essentially everything you can do in large enough numbers to make it work (example 1 event you'll can be screwed, 50 events on average no, you will have some event with too much luck and some thats are screwed up)
 

Pauly7

Magus
If you see all 28 recipe pools (4 per day) you should be seeing 6-7 pet food per week on average.
This is the point that, in my experience, it doesn't stack up. For a long period of time I've averaged no more than 5 pet foods a week appearing. I'm not saying that has changed of late, but I question whether every recipe has an even chance of appearing.
 

Paris Silk

Seeker
I usually find that if I craft relics, the next round of recipes will contain pet food. Not sure if that would work every time, but it's pretty regular in my Magic Academy.
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
This is the point that, in my experience, it doesn't stack up. For a long period of time I've averaged no more than 5 pet foods a week appearing. I'm not saying that has changed of late, but I question whether every recipe has an even chance of appearing.

I have the idea it improved when they introduced the recipe per location + added the 1650 recipe.
I usually find that if I craft relics, the next round of recipes will contain pet food. Not sure if that would work every time, but it's pretty regular in my Magic Academy.

It's all in the eye of the beholder,
As humans we always seek patterns, as they teach us things and avoid danger as a result.
And the lovely issue of conformation bias when researching something

To solve this once and for all I decided to deplete a unused account of it's diamonds and collect 280 datapoints (10 weeks) taken all today 22 june 2021 so we can see what it would average out to at the current format.

The recipe pool consists of:
  • 9 different relic recipes
  • 4 different petfood recipes
  • Stonehenge Artefact recipe (STA)
  • Phoenix Artefact recipe (PHA)
1624381631111.png


We see the following:
  • Week 1: 8 petfood
  • Week 2: 8 petfood
  • Week 3: 7 petfood
  • Week 4: 8 petfood
  • Week 5: 11 petfood
  • Week 6: 5 petfood
  • Week 7: 6 petfood
  • Week 8: 12 petfood
  • Week 9: 12 petfood
  • Week 10: 6 Petfood
10 week average: 8.3 petfood

This seems to be quite accurate with my finding: since the "fixed position" change I already felt I got more petfood than before which was 6-7 a week. so I expect 8 to be a good number.

You can also see the rewards vary wildy per week from 5 in the worst week to 12 in the best week.
I am pretty confident if I would take another 280 datapoint example we would see something very similar.

ps: this is the perfect case scenario where you see all recipe pools and complete each of the petfoods before the recipes swap to the next pool.
 
Last edited:

DeletedUser501

Enchanter
I have the idea it improved when they introduced the recipe per location + added the 1650 recipe.


It's all in the eye of the beholder,
As humans we always seek patterns, as they teach us things and avoid danger as a result.
And the lovely issue of conformation bias when researching something

To solve this once and for all I decided to deplete a unused account of it's diamonds and collect 280 datapoints (10 weeks) taken all today 22 june 2021 so we can see what it would average out to at the current format.

The recipe pool consists of:
  • 9 different relic recipes
  • 4 different petfood recipes
  • Stonehenge Artefact recipe (STA)
  • Phoenix Artefact recipe (PHA)
View attachment 5606

We see the following:
  • Week 1: 8 petfood
  • Week 2: 8 petfood
  • Week 3: 7 petfood
  • Week 4: 8 petfood
  • Week 5: 11 petfood
  • Week 6: 5 petfood
  • Week 7: 6 petfood
  • Week 8: 12 petfood
  • Week 9: 12 petfood
  • Week 10: 6 Petfood
10 week average: 8.3 petfood

This seems to be quite accurate with my finding: since the "fixed position" change I already felt I got more petfood than before which was 6-7 a week. so I expect 8 to be a good number.

You can also see the rewards vary wildy per week from 5 in the worst week to 12 in the best week.
I am pretty confident if I would take another 280 datapoint example we would see something very similar.

ps: this is the perfect case scenario where you see all recipe pools and complete each of the petfoods before the recipes swap to the next pool.
Do you have the DATA related to fighting buildings?
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
Do you have the DATA related to fighting buildings?
I Intend to get another dataset including combat buildings, but due to more variation anf my feeling that the odds for UUU is lower than the other 2, i want a much bigger dataset.

The issie is that it will take a few hours to collect, note and work the data so i need to find time.for that. Especially since I want consecutive data and not combined snippets. So I need to make 1 big data run.
 

Gargon667

Mentor
I Intend to get another dataset including combat buildings, but due to more variation anf my feeling that the odds for UUU is lower than the other 2, i want a much bigger dataset.

The issie is that it will take a few hours to collect, note and work the data so i need to find time.for that. Especially since I want consecutive data and not combined snippets. So I need to make 1 big data run.

I do not believe UUU to be more rare than the other 2 buildings.
I think they may have removed probabilities from all the standard recipes when they introduced this new system, the only recipes that I would think are more rare than others are the special ones, like artifacts etc.
Of course because of the new system the 5 slots have varying probabilities, because of the number of possible recipes in each slot. But within a slot each recipe might have the same probability to show up.

Just a feeling though...
 

Pauly7

Magus
We see the following:
  • Week 1: 8 petfood
  • Week 2: 8 petfood
  • Week 3: 7 petfood
  • Week 4: 8 petfood
  • Week 5: 11 petfood
  • Week 6: 5 petfood
  • Week 7: 6 petfood
  • Week 8: 12 petfood
  • Week 9: 12 petfood
  • Week 10: 6 Petfood
10 week average: 8.3 petfood
This is interesting data indeed, and thanks for the experiment.

However, it still doesn't quite marry with my recent experience. I have no such datasets, but I do have a couple of fixed points and a constant:

I currently have 8 more petfoods than I did 7 weeks and 6 days ago. During that time I have always used 4 a week. No more, no less. So during this time (let's call it 8 weeks) I have gathered exactly 5 pet foods a week. So there's a few possibilities for this difference:

  1. I have had a run of bad luck for the period of the last 8 weeks
  2. You had a run of good luck with your 10 week dataset
  3. I missed crafting some
  4. There is a variable probability for receiving petfood which has improved recently
I actually think all the above are possible. 1 is more likely than 2, for sure, but I will add to this my subjective idea that I haven't been getting more than 5 pet foods a week for a long time. I can't rule out number 3. I am unlikely to miss them, but I wouldn't be surprised if I missed one rotation a week perhaps.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
@CrazyWizard 's data breakdown... 28 Rotations, 10 weeks, 280 Total Recipes

RecipeCountPercentPercent Guess
Relic (9 Recipes)191 (about 21 each?)68.21% (7.58% each?)67.5% (7.5% each)
Pet Food (4 recipes)72 (about 18 each?)25.71% (6.42% each?)26% (6.5% each)
Stonehenge Artifact62.14%2%
Phoenix Artifact113.92%4.5%
 

Gargon667

Mentor
@CrazyWizard 's data breakdown... 28 Rotations, 10 weeks, 280 Total Recipes

RecipeCountPercentPercent Guess
Relic (9 Recipes)191 (about 21 each?)68.21% (7.58% each?)67.5% (7.5% each)
Pet Food (4 recipes)72 (about 18 each?)25.71% (6.42% each?)26% (6.5% each)
Stonehenge Artifact62.14%2%
Phoenix Artifact113.92%4.5%
I wonder if that makes my theory of Relics and Pet Foods having the same probability more likely or less likely...
 

Solanix

Forum Moderator
Elvenar Team
@CrazyWizard and @Sir Derf I am very impressed about your tables. There is a lot of work in them. I must admit that I have a much easier formula:

1. I need Pet Food - I will only get Relics to craft
2. I need Relics - I will only get Pet Food to craft.

I recently needed 20 Relics and I managed to craft 5 Pet Food in 2 days. Never before I had so many opportunities to make the food :) Not to mention that I usually do not need to craft Relics but events have their own rules ... :)
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
This is interesting data indeed, and thanks for the experiment.

However, it still doesn't quite marry with my recent experience. I have no such datasets, but I do have a couple of fixed points and a constant:

I currently have 8 more petfoods than I did 7 weeks and 6 days ago. During that time I have always used 4 a week. No more, no less. So during this time (let's call it 8 weeks) I have gathered exactly 5 pet foods a week. So there's a few possibilities for this difference:

  1. I have had a run of bad luck for the period of the last 8 weeks
  2. You had a run of good luck with your 10 week dataset
  3. I missed crafting some
  4. There is a variable probability for receiving petfood which has improved recently
I actually think all the above are possible. 1 is more likely than 2, for sure, but I will add to this my subjective idea that I haven't been getting more than 5 pet foods a week for a long time. I can't rule out number 3. I am unlikely to miss them, but I wouldn't be surprised if I missed one rotation a week perhaps.
Point 3 is the most likely suspect.

if you miss seeing a rotation or if you do not complete crafting and picking up the reward before the rotation you loose an opportunity to get another one.

Especially midnight rotation missouts where a petfood might appear can make the difference appear.
This is where spending 50 diamonds once to get the academy rotation just perfect for your RL obligations (1 guaranteed moment before bedtime to see the rotation and 1 rotation not expired before you wake up)

I hope I can find some time in the comming week to do another experiment for 560 turns. mainly for combat buildings, but it would be easy to redo the petfood experiement at the same time.
 

Giraffi

Enchanter
@CrazyWizard and @Sir Derf I am very impressed about your tables. There is a lot of work in them. I must admit that I have a much easier formula:

1. I need Pet Food - I will only get Relics to craft
2. I need Relics - I will only get Pet Food to craft.
Lol, see that all too often and add to that phoenix or stonehenge artifacts to tempt you to use your blue prints, while you have to wait for next cycle for the relics/pet food you wanted.
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
I do not believe UUU to be more rare than the other 2 buildings.
I think they may have removed probabilities from all the standard recipes when they introduced this new system, the only recipes that I would think are more rare than others are the special ones, like artifacts etc.
Of course because of the new system the 5 slots have varying probabilities, because of the number of possible recipes in each slot. But within a slot each recipe might have the same probability to show up.

Just a feeling though...
I am using each 2 weeks 4 LR, 4 mage and 2 UUU buildings for pretty much years now.
so to me it looks like there is only 50% change for UUU tot popup compared to the other 2
 

Pauly7

Magus
Point 3 is the most likely suspect.
I'm inclined to agree and you make a good point that there will be occasions where crafting one could block the next one from appearing... although where possible I try to make sure that slot is free for the next rotation... it won't happen on every occasion though.

That all being said, a trial of 10 weeks or 8 weeks will not necessarily settle any big RNG differences.
 

MagicTasha

Spellcaster
I have been making lots of relics in the last weeks!! No pet food. Unless it comes up at night when I am asleep. I have now decided not to craft at all until the pet food turns up.
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
I have been making lots of relics in the last weeks!! No pet food. Unless it comes up at night when I am asleep. I have now decided not to craft at all until the pet food turns up.
Reset your timer.
There are 4 recipe pools each lasting 6 hours, when you reset your recipes the timer will go back to 6 hours.

This means for example if you sleep from 10 PM to 7 PM you could reset your recipes at 9PM once.
This will create a pool of recipes before you go to sleep. then at 3AM a new recipe pool will appear till 9 AM. this allows you to see the new recipes when you wake up between 7AM and 9AM.

This way you can easily see all 4 recipe pools a day, without haveing to compromise in RL.
 
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