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Winter Magic

DeletedUser8632

Guest
I'm trying to make this as objective as possible. Preliminary remark: Chapter Woodelves. 6 fully upgrade Workshops. Prosperity Tower at 7. 4 fully upgraded steel factories plus 3 at Level 16.

1a) "We listened to you and fixed repeating quests" and 1b) "We want to make this even more relaxed and enjoyable"- You did neither.

ad 1a) Of the last 10 quests I had, 8 were either Gain or Produce supplies. I am fairly sure that in the last event people were not complaining about the repeated wording of the quests but about being forced to do the same things over and over again. "Get some bread while you are shopping" and "Buy some bread" is still the same thing. Congratulations, you not only managed to not solve a problem, you reinvented the same problem with the added benefit of mocking players.

ad 1b) Assuming that somebody did the math on your side, I am guessing 180 quests is what you need to upgrade the grand prize to Level 10. Well, thats not going to happen. The ridiculous repetition of both "get supplies" and "get goods" quests makes sure that I can do 5, maybe 6 quests a day - if and only if I come back to the game every 3 hours. During Christmas preparations. Over Christmas. During New Years celebration.
Not going to happen. You are literally asking me to be available for your Event during the most family oriented time of the year. Nah, keep your damn Gingerbread house.

2) "We introduced a new mechanic we are hoping is more fun" - It is not
Seriously, I don't know why you run a beta release and maintain a beta forum if you just ignore the prevalent feedback. Ignoring the fact that making 2KP or a rune shard a "prize" is not much better than a "Ho ho ho.. f.. you" - the shuffle "Prize" is the height of atrocious stupidity. I DO appreciate that somebody with half a brain recognized that relics are just too much of an insult as a prize and they were removed but genuinely: What were people over there thinking?

3) An old but still widely ignored complaint remains: Events are wrecking city progress. Now more than ever. The random quests mean that I am need to refrain from picking up productions because I might need them. Factories are sitting uncollected for a day just to be prepared for that quest that needs goods. KP sits idly, valuable recipes go uncrafted because I have this one 16VV sitting in my MA that may be required just around the corner.
On top of that I am sitting here twiddling my thumbs, waiting for the Event to be over because I am certainly not going to progress to the next chapter in the middle of the Event. Its already difficult to fulfill most quests with my fully upgraded workshops and factories, I'm not going to shoot myself in the knee going into the next chapter where all the requirements increase.

All in all, you can keep dressing a dead horse in different clothes. Its still gonna be dead. Maybe you can at least get your marketing department salivating over the chance to charge anther 80 Euros for 3 Gingerbread artifacts because I'm sure as hell not going to finish mine.
 

DeletedUser8632

Guest
Judging from the 39 pages of animated discussion about the Autumn event and the dismal 3 pages here I tend to agree with you. Its sad that we are looking back fondly at a horrid event. Have players become so despondent about events that they just don't care? What did Inno expect? They have removed almost all player participation in gaining prizes and left everything up to chance... so if they don't WANT player participation I'd say its a case of 'be careful of what you wish for..."

Maybe players just don't give a damn anymore. I think this is partially because of the way the feedback was initially handled in the Autumn event: Widely ignored, topped with an almost sulking QA where Inno basically stated: "We think these changes are good, they are here to stay, deal with it".

We lost players in the Autumn event, we are already starting to lose players because of the Winter Event. These players are not interested in discussions or "feedback" anymore for a simple reason: What for?
 

Verde

Soothsayer
Just noticed a level 2 Gingerbread Mansion in a city ... guess I'd not paid much attention til now ... good grief that thing's unattractive! :(
 

DeletedUser8632

Guest
Just noticed a level 2 Gingerbread Mansion in a city ... guess I'd not paid much attention til now ... good grief that thing's unattractive! :(

Makes you fondly look back at that ugly mermaid thing :)
 

Timneh

Artisan
I have a question for the devs...What makes you think that quests that say produce X amount of goods and buy X amount of goods given back to back are not repeating quests ? Are you really so stupid that you think that changing the wording makes them different quests ? Collecting supplies is still collecting supplies (or goods) whether you call it produce, gain or buy.
It is no longer possible to have the exact same quest appear twice in a row. That sentence should really say It is no longer possible to have quests with the same wording appear twice in a row.
As far as the new prize system goes .....somebody really dropped the ball with that, it is a complete lottery what you will get when you open a present so unless you like togamble there is no fun it that.
I wonder if INNO are thinking of starting a gambling website and are trying to get players of Elvenar into gambling so they will join that site (i'm joking)
 

DeletedUser1874

Guest
Ignoring the fact that making 2KP or a rune shard a "prize" is not much better than a "Ho ho ho.. f.. you" - the shuffle "Prize" is the height of atrocious stupidity. I DO appreciate that somebody with half a brain recognized that relics are just too much of an insult as a prize and they were removed but genuinely: What were people over there thinking?
Personally, I'd take a "Ho ho ho.. f.. you" (preferably with a sound file that can't be muted) any time over a 2kp or a rune shard, at least it'd make me giggle.
 

Deleted User - 1759805

Guest
Are you really so stupid that you think that changing the wording makes them different quests ? Collecting supplies is still collecting supplies (or goods) whether you call it produce, gain or buy.
B-but there are also different amounts! These are clearly different quests ;)
 

eness

Seeker
It may be my overarching cynicism, but were the costly Golden Goose to produce Golden Eggs less frequently (or perhaps none at all), wouldn't the only real solution be to kill the only resources keeping it alive, the players? Seems to be working...IMHO
 
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Hekata

Artisan
To add to the topic of why this event is not fun, one of the reason for me is that I used to go after a lot of daily prizes. Even if I thought I probably wouldn't need them I'd get 1 just in case and then it was always good for spell fragments. But that's bc I knew I'd probably get it in 2-5 tries depending on the chests available and that even if I don't I'd get a lot of time boosters. So that was something to look forward every 2 or 3 days. Now the chances of getting a daily prize are so bad that I have to save all the ribbons for those 2 time boosters days and even that is sad because it's what I used to get from chests while hunting for the daily.

Also I keep getting the Tech/VV quest over and over again. That quest is very hard and boring and should be among the bonus quests or at least have a much much lower chance to come up an not be every second quest. The produce supplies/goods quests I don't mind that much. They are repetitive but it is already part of regular game play and I can complete a few quests every 3 hours, but when you keep getting only items you don't need and worth 1-5 VV selection after selection it's really not fun at all.
 

DeletedUser8632

Guest
To add to the topic of why this event is not fun, one of the reason for me is that I used to go after a lot of daily prizes. Even if I thought I probably wouldn't need them I'd get 1 just in case and then it was always good for spell fragments. But that's bc I knew I'd probably get it in 2-5 tries depending on the chests available and that even if I don't I'd get a lot of time boosters. So that was something to look forward every 2 or 3 days. Now the chances of getting a daily prize are so bad that I have to save all the ribbons for those 2 time boosters days and even that is sad because it's what I used to get from chests while hunting for the daily.

Also I keep getting the Tech/VV quest over and over again. That quest is very hard and boring and should be among the bonus quests or at least have a much much lower chance to come up an not be every second quest. The produce supplies/goods quests I don't mind that much. They are repetitive but it is already part of regular game play and I can complete a few quests every 3 hours, but when you keep getting only items you don't need and worth 1-5 VV selection after selection it's really not fun at all.

Yes, completely there with you. My Chapter 4 city keeps getting this, which is A LOT of fun at Chapter 4 when you have nothing else to research but are a dozen provinces away from opening advanced scouts. And in Winyandor I am also sitting on this because my grand total of VV available to craft in the MA is: 7. Next refresh in 5:30 :)
 

hawk the slayer

Spellcaster
With you there Tesla, I'm far enough now to get the 15VV quest almost every other time, its boring, frustrating and I'm getting to the point where I may well not bother with this event anymore -- what possible reason would I have to waste so many CC spells crafting worthless items just for the chance of winning more worthless items.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Now the chances of getting a daily prize are so bad that I have to save all the ribbons for those 2 time boosters days and even that is sad because it's what I used to get from chests while hunting for the daily.
But are they?

I did some math on the Beta thread, but hadn't taken it all the way... Tally ho! (typing as I figure, I don't know where this is going to go)

Old style.

Chests odds ran from 5 to 30% odds of getting the daily prize. Each chest was independent, so opening several in a row didn't increase each's chest's odds. You get to choose the best chest from the 3 random choices picked from the 9 possible chests.

1 arrangement of 15/15/30, for 30% chance.
2 arrangements of 10/15/30, for 30% chance.
10 5/15/30, 30%.
5 5/10/30, 30%
10 5/5/30, 30%
1 10/15/15, 15%
5 5/15/15, 15%
10 5/10/15, 15%
10 5/5/15, 15%
20 5/5/10, 10%
10 5/5/5, 5%

((28*.3)+(26*.15)+(20*.1)+(10*.05))/84
(8.4+3.9+2+.5)/84
17.6% chance


Long term expectation, 17.6% chance of getting a daily prize per chest open, or roughly 1 in 6.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
New style.

1 Present has the daily prize. 1 present has the reshuffle. 14 other presents (ignoring the spy and the double).

You start out with a 1/16 chance (6.25%) chance of getting the daily prize, so better than the worst chest old style. And every failure, the odds go up, 1/15 (6.66%), 1/14 (7.1%) etc.

I had previously worked out that you have a 50% chance of getting the daily prize before you get the reshuffle. And that you have a 50% chance of getting the reshuffle in the first 8 packages. But, what is the actual long term chance of getting the daily prize?
 

Deleted User - 106219

Guest
But that's for a single prize, right? Previously if you wanted multiple of the same prize - you could get them with some luck.

In this event you have just 1 (ONE) daily prize among the presents. Once you get it you can't get another until you find the Reshuffle present. And then there's the danger of opening the Reshuffle before you get the Daily. Worst case scenario you open 13 presents, leaving you with "Reveal 2", "Reshuffle" and "Daily" as the last three... and then you hit the Reshuffle.
 

DeletedUser8632

Guest
Patience.....

It takes a while to think, math and type... I did end with a question....

No complaints about your math BUT! (you knew this was coming, right) :) ) - Now factor in the Shuffle. I'll wait.
 

DeletedUser8632

Guest
Patience.....

It takes a while to think, math and type... I did end with a question....

No complaints so far with your math. Well done. Also, I think it is justifiable to take the quick and dirty approach of just considering the shuffle as a "50% Reduction" (= regardless of probability, you always have a 50/50 chance to draw the reshuffle instead of the daily price) - ignoring the reveal price.

Its starting to get really complicated when you start considering that players going for daily prizes would actively avoid certain chests (5% and 10% chests, if possible) because they understand independent probability.

Can we look at this from the ass-end? How much currency would it take to get a daily prize in a previous event if you were focusing on the best chests? Let's say with a confidence interval of 5%? How much currency would it cost to reach this probability in the current event.

That said, I am honestly too drunk right now to actually put this in numbers.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Its starting to get really complicated when you start considering that players going for daily prizes would actively avoid certain chests (5% and 10% chests, if possible) because they understand independent probability.
I did consider that. Observe that all options where there was a 30% chest in your 3, I had you picking that chest, so having a 30% chance of getting the daily prize.

Can we look at this from the ass-end? How much currency would it take to get a daily prize in a previous event if you were focusing on the best chests? Let's say with a confidence interval of 5%? How much currency would it cost to reach this probability in the current event.
Can't work out the cost until you've worked out the odds.

Patience... Right now I have a logic/math error, since I've accumulated 112.5% of the possibilities...
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Okay, I'm a little shaky on if I've got the right reasoning pulling it all together and then boiling it down to presents/daily, but here goes...

(and again, this is without figuring in the spy and the double, which should increase your results, but I'm not sure by how much)



You get the reshuffle first, 6.25%, you got no daily, you opened 1 present.

You get the prize the first pull, 6.25%. Then what?

1/15 you get the reshuffle second. 6.66% you open 2 presents.
14/15 you get the something else, then 1/14 you get the reshuffle third. 6.66% you open 3 presents.
14/15, 13/14 you get something else, then 1/13 you get the shuffle fourth. 6.66% you open 4 presents.

Overall, if you get the prize the first pull, you will average opening a total of 9 presents.


You get the prize the second pull, 14/16*1/15 = 5.83% Then what?

1/14 you get the shuffle third. 7.14% you open 3 presents.
13/14, 1/13 you get the shuffle fourth. 7.14% you open 4 presents.

Overall, if you get the prize in the second pull, you will average opening a total of 9.5 presents.

Prize third, 14/16*13/15*1/14 = 5.42%, average 10 presents.
Prize fourth, 5%, 10.5 presents
...
Prize 15th, 0.42%, 16 presents

And lastly, 0.42% chance you get the reshuffle 15th, opening 15 presents with no prize.


So...

6.25% chance you get 0 prize and open 1 present.
6.25% chance you get 1 prize first and open an average of 9 presents.
5.83% chance you get 1 prize second and open an average of 9.5 presents.
...
0.42% chance you get 1 prize 15th and open 16 presents.
0.42% chance you get 0 prize and open 15 presents.



Summed all up, you have an average return of 0.5 prize in 5.79 presents, or 1 prize in 11.58 presents, or...

Long term expectation, 8.6% chance of getting a daily prize per present open, or roughly 1 in 12, or about half that of the old system.
 
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