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Not enough data to answer most of that, unfortunately. We only have about 1500 observations between basically 2.5 cities so far, and given that there are ~80 core recipes that's not quite enough to be certain about most of the things you're asking. One conclusion that can be made is that hypothesis of all recipes having the same probability is very, very unlikely with the data we observed so far. And apparently community manager on French forums confirmed as much, even though I wouldn't necessarily put much weight into that by itself.@MinMax Gamer I looked at your US server thread and it felt a bit like being in an episode of The Big Bang Theory (I love the show btw)
For us not so versed in maths and statistics: Is the conclusion that there are 2 pools one with frequent recipes and one with those more rare? Will you make a list of with recipe goes in which pool? And is there any way to know how recipes get picked from the pools? I have notice to frequently have a lot of constitutive selections of only those frequent recipes and then get all the rare items in the same selection. Wouldn't it be expected to have something like 4 recipes from the frequent pool mixed with 1 recipe from the not frequent pool?
Observation matters. Another important thing is sample size. Example with the spire: genie has a probability of 5%. Say, given sample size is 100, then if I will do spire 100 times, I should get 5 genies. But if sample size is 100000, then I might play the spire 1000 times and get 0. I stopped paying attention to the numbers describing the chance, because my observation is that most likely the spire is built using second scenario Library has a similar probability, but in reality it is won more often.
Same with the phoenix recipes. Some players should wait ages for something to appear, others are getting one after another. Universal evolve would be answer.
At times it looks like astonishing lack of balance in this game. I personally do not find this entertaining...
you still not get anythign about probabilities iFixed it for you.
Is your account going backwards?
Register where? As a gambling site? For a game that gives no tangible rewards?
And I thought the problem was whether the game mechanics favored random vs. skill?
one question does the % remain constant?Not enough data to answer most of that, unfortunately. We only have about 1500 observations between basically 2.5 cities so far, and given that there are ~80 core recipes that's not quite enough to be certain about most of the things you're asking. One conclusion that can be made is that hypothesis of all recipes having the same probability is very, very unlikely with the data we observed so far. And apparently community manager on French forums confirmed as much, even though I wouldn't necessarily put much weight into that by itself.
2-pool hypothesis is the one that does work quite well with the data we have so far. It does not mean it is correct We can have all recipes have their own individual frequencies that are different from each other - we just don't have enough data to differentiate between them yet. But we can differentiate between high-frequency and low-frequency recipes as these are already quite different from the ones in the other group. As to which is which, you can take a look at the last couple of posts in the thread, I explain how you can tell which recipe is which (and some are less certain than others).
BTW, all the analysis there assumes that recipe selection is driven entirely by random process with some fixed parameters. If, say, Inno exerts some more specific influence on the recipe selection (based on some city parameters, timing etc), then all this stuff can get thrown out of the window. I mean, data would still be correct, but it would be really hard to generalize it.
The analysis ignores all the temporary (like artifact conversion) and one-off recipes (like chess set and evolving buildings), as these would be different for different people/times. It only compares core recipes that everyone gets no matter what.one question does the % remain constant?
it will not be reduced in event like this one to accomodate the 2 new recipes which means all others will have to have lower %
and also the increased the rate of the old phoenix buildings?