Old Phoenix artifacts

[Pauly7]

You make a compelling mathematical argument @Sir Derf and whatever the case it is of course reasonable to assume that the recipe that you want could take a long time to appear.

However...

I still do not believe that all recipes carry equal probability. Consider this: When has Inno ever said that they are equal in likelihood? I don't recall that ever happening. It seems to me that this is the sort of thing they would keep mentioning, were it the case, especially in the initial explanations of how crafting works.

Yes, I agree that there is a psychological distortion people experience when it seems the thing that you want never appears and the thing that you least want appears all the time. It's a given that this is also continually occurring.

I have had occasions where 5 pet foods have appeared in 2 rounds of crafting options. What are the chances of that happening? It has happened to me more than once. Someone may need to blind me with some maths on that. Given that there are 100 recipes as you suggest then perhaps 1 in 25 must be pet food, but we're looking for 3 out of 5 turning up as any one of 4 specifics recipes... This maths is beyond me!

 

[Sir Derf]

1) Throw correct info at me, and I'll gladly update the math. I was already working with the inaccurate "about 100 recipes" assumption, not having been able to quickly find a current list of recipes, let alone appearance odds.
2) Do you mean the "there are nine versions of recipe x, each asking for n of a different relic, so recipe x is 9 times more likely to appear" concept, or do you mean that there are actually some distinct individual recipes are more likely than others?

 

[Pauly7]

Let's assume, for the sake of argument that all recipes are equal in likelihood for the above query.

 

[Pauly7]

"there are nine versions of recipe x, each asking for n of a different relic, so recipe x is 9 times more likely to appear"

Are there 9. I thought there were 4 pet food recipes.

 

[ANIKHTOS]

Given:

5 Recipes are randomly selected every 6 hours.

Assumptions:

There are about 100 recipes available at any one time.
All recipes are equally likely.
One of these recipes is desired.

Question 1: What are the odds that the desired recipe will appear now?
Simple answer - 5 out of 100, or 5%
Longer answer - Odds that it doesn't appear = 99/100 * 98/99 * 97/98 * 96/97 * 95/96 = 95%, therefore 5% it does appear.

Question 2: What are the odds that the desired recipe will not be offered in a day?
Answer - (95/100)^4 = 81.5%

Question 3: What are the odds that the desired recipe will not be offered in a week?
Answer - (95/100)^28 = 23.7%
In a world with 50k+ players, between 1:5 and 1:4, or 10-12.5k players will go a week without being offered the desired recipe.
On the flip side, that is a 76.3% chance that you will have been offered the desired recipe at least once in a week.
And, that's assuming that these players did look at all 28 offerings, and are accurately remembering the appropriate timeframe.


And yes, random is random; yes we won't see the exact 23.7% distribution. But, it's highly likely that we will see something close to that, when performed on the scale of 50,000 players.

1. WRONG
thats not indepedent random
every time you try you will always have %% to ge tit and 95% to loose
EVERY TIME
the ration will not change
the outcome of a previous outcome does not effect the outcome of the next outcome
and that why i say having random % drop rate will quarantine to punish some people with extreme bad luck, and in the other hard will reward some people with good luck with he majority going around the expected average
which means there will always be some player that will next get ity while there will be some that they will always get it and anything between that extreemes

what you describe is a depended outcome where the previous affect the next.

2. WRONG
you confuse expected outcome with with what can happen they are 2 diferent things.
the expected outcome will only be true if there will be a large numbers of repeats. think any number you have not thought a big enough number. practically that will be true only if you repeat it infinite times

while yes the expetted peopel nto gettign the recipe on the server will be the 81.5% you qutoe that does not mean if we do a survey that will be the actuall number.
it still can be 0% getting the recipe and 100% gettign it.
1 day and even 1 server population is still too low number to expect the number to convert to their expected values.

what you miss to understand is the 81.5% is the most likely outcome we can have for a server for 1 day it does not mean that it will be the outcome we will see.
3. again you repeat the same logic as in step 2 so go read again my point to get your answer

\and even if we go with the expected return which we should not go.
you do realize that 23.&% of 50k players will not get the recipe? that is how many people?
11.850 WILL NOT GET THE RECIPE for a whole week in a server of 50.000 people playing for a time period of 1 week with 5% drop rate.

and once more this is THE MOST LIKELY scenario to happen it does not mean it will happen
even after 1 week you can have 0 people getting the recipe and all people getting the recipe
and everything between


thats the gmablers mentality who they go with expected ODDS and thats why they all end up broke.
with idnependent tries there is no "expected result" at least meaningfull in our life as humans.
since the repetition we will have is not that many times.

even if the recipe has 99% chance to drop out
thats still mean you can end up with the whole server not gettign the recipe for a whole week.

and that why the independent probability is bad mechanic to implement in a game.

you can not compare players between them. what will be true fro you will not be true for me and vice versa.
the expected outcome is NOT A GUARANTEE outcome

as is said to you earlier even if you flip 1 coin 1 billion times and land head thats normal and also is expected to happen.

as you make more relations you expect to start having clusters of head or tales happening.
and there is also formulas to calculate how many repetition you have to make to expect particular outcome to happen for sure.

if you want to get 10 head or tales in a row as cluster it will happen and you can calculate what is the most likely times you have to flip the coin to get that cluster. and you can calculate everything, else of course.


and once more the most probably outcome or expected outcome is not a guarantee one, it will not happen.

if you ever taken a probability class and said what you aid it is instead failure.

there is no guarantee outcome in independent random events
stating as you said there must be this expected return congratulation you fail the class and you understand nothing of probabilities.

i know my teacher where very specific in day 1

 

[Sir Derf]

I wasn't necessarily talking about Pet Food.

 

[Pauly7]

I'm just interested to know, if 1 out of 25 recipes is pet food, what are the odds that 5 out of 10 given recipes will be pet food, assuming equal probabilities of everything.

I feel like I'm almost answering my own question, but still not quite there.

 

[Sir Derf]

1) Wrong about my being wrong.

95% chance of not being offered the recipe once. Independent 95% chance of not being offered it the second time. Independent 95% chance of not being offered it the third time. Independent 95% chance of not being offered it the fourth time. Four independent 95% chance of not being offered it over the course of the day = (95/100)^4. = 81.5%

2) My earlier suggestion that player @thorly did not have a good representative sample was from his extrapolation that it was never happening in F-land based on his (and possibly others) not having seen it. I followed up with my observation that I had seen it, a singular additional data point completely sufficient to dispel his assumption. I was not suggesting a campaign for comparing and contrasting observations to theoretical outcomes; I was chiding him on tentatively reaching a conclusion based on insufficient evidence. Something something purple cow, something something black swan.

3) Yes, expected outcome is not a guarantee. And yes, unlikely occurrences are possible. I said as much. But, on the other hand, actually having an unlikely occurence is, well, unlikely. What other language is there for discussing it than by looking at the expected outcomes?

Yes, a billion head-flips in a row is, as you say, normal and 'expected', as in 'among the many possible outcomes, so we can expect that it can happen'. But, at (1/2)^10^9, it is quite literally astronomically unexpected.

Similarly, yes, even with a world of 50k players, with 28 offerings a week, it is a possibility that all 1.4 million offerings that week were void of the desired recipe. I don't discount that possibility.

 

[ANIKHTOS]

1) Throw correct info at me, and I'll gladly update the math. I was already working with the inaccurate "about 100 recipes" assumption, not having been able to quickly find a current list of recipes, let alone appearance odds.
2) Do you mean the "there are nine versions of recipe x, each asking for n of a different relic, so recipe x is 9 times more likely to appear" concept, or do you mean that there are actually some distinct individual recipes are more likely than others?

1, an idnependent outcome will alway be the same % at any given repetition
sicne tthey are idnepedent form the previous outcomes and the next one
thats the definition of an indepedent propability

Longer answer - Odds that it doesn't appear = 99/100 * 98/99 * 97/98 * 96/97 * 95/96 = 95%, therefore 5% it does appear.
thats what you wrote WHICH IS WRONG
every repetition will always be 5% or 95% if you consider the other outcome 5% to happen 95% not to happen.
2. and once more does it matter for the players that will be in the "unlucky" part of the spin?
will it make it better of more comfortable for them to know that they vhere expected never to get the recipe to begin with?

what motivation gives to players to play serious the new events or even invest money into the game to win the prizes
if they can always be in the losoign side and it is EXPECTED to happen?

so from the 23.7% of the people that will not get the recipe and they feel left out from the game how many will quit the game from disappointment especially if they also spent diamonds to be in this situation?

as i said knowing that same people will have bad luck is not comforting when you are that player. and how long a player will continue to play when they have bad luck?
how loing you will keep playign a game when in every event you where among the players that got the short stick?

3. lol i did not said 1 billion head from beginning i said get billion head somewhere down the line
completely different thing and it will happen also.
so no the number you post is wrong
that nubmer is only true to have 1 billion head on the go not have a billion head somewhere in the repettiion chain
and there is a formula to find when you will expect to get a cluster of outcomes like that
there is a reason i said 10 heads since a math done ti flip a coin as many times needed to get 10 heads in the row
and then compared his repetition to the expected repetition he was going to have to make to get 10 head in a row

and no you will not tgalk about expected outxcme
as i said that will be true only after a huge number of repetion
a 50k server with 4 times per day for 1 week
will only be million repetition which is still way too small number.

and yes mathematician use expected rate as a tool but you need to understand what that represent and what it does not represent.

all the calculations you done are showing the likelihood of a specific event to happen but since you admit there is no quarantine why you flip flop and go no guarantee lets talk about the expected outcome

saying that reveals you have not understand anything about probabilities.

and this is the hardest topci in maths where even mathematiicans get many thigns wrong is the field of masacre.
and it was the weakest of my math classes which fails into the expected ration that the majority of mathematician will suffer in probabilities.

and why you shoudl nto go with expected rate? cause it will fail you
i remember a hard drive company that you know they have a % of failure as acceptable and they do quality checks ot make sure that their line of productions iwll have that certain amoutn of products been de fective.

and quess what ahppen? because the quality check by itself is a sample size it also has a % the sample you tes to be represewntative of the line outcome the test failed for wekks and the company adfter 3 weeks r4elazied one line was defected and had a nightmare PR
with million of hard drives to replace and lawsuits for data lost from companies due to drives going bad.

and yeah they where 99% or more sure that their line was working as expected but even that tiny % sometimes will kick in and mess up you
even if that % was so little and it will take 100 of years to expect it to happen it did happen.

and when you have a random indepedent outcome what is there to say?
contact support? contact forum? what they will say to you that this is expected to happen?





its nice to preach from a psotion of having average or good luck in an event to the palyers that had bad luck that this is expected

so how long you would play a game that you end up having bad luck?

how is good policy for a company to have an event and instead people be happy for the event the have a bitter taste in their mouth form the outcome?

 

[WinterLivia7]

It's May 7th, what means the offer for crafting old artifacts expired.
I didn't miss a single round in the last 7 days (I even set the alarm, during the night > stupid me!) but I didn't get that most wanted recipe. I used 250 diamonds to get 5 extra spins > result = no recipe.

Now I will tell you what I personally feel about all this story.
I feel ripped off and disgusted by their unbelievable greed and contempt towards their own players. Pushing people to spend money at any cost is just abhorrent.
I am disappointed to the point I feel I just want to quit the game entirely.

It seems that the challenge in this game is actually like a fight between the devs' malice and our struggle to counteract it. I don't need this. I want a game where I can relax, I can use my brain to plan things, to choose best strategy in a game where the path is already decided by the devs (it's a big fat lie that you can play how you want. No, you can't if you want to actually play all parts of the game).

I am now totally disheartened by what happened.

 

[Deleted User - 1759805]

1) Throw correct info at me, and I'll gladly update the math. I was already working with the inaccurate "about 100 recipes" assumption, not having been able to quickly find a current list of recipes, let alone appearance odds.

https://us.forum.elvenar.com/index.php?threads/crafting-recipes-master-list.22432/

 

[Sir Derf]

I believe that I have correctly described the situation, given that it is my understanding that the Magic Academy offers 5 DIFFERENT (i.e., dependent) recipes, and not 5 possibly duplicated (i.e., independent) recipes. It's the difference between a lottery drawing 5 consecutive balls from a single hopper of 100 balls vs. drawing 1 ball from each of 5 hoppers, each hopper containing 100 balls. Had that been the case, then the odds of not getting the desired recipe in one offering would have been (99/100)^4, or 96.1% instead of 95%, and the odds of not getting it in a week would have (99/100)^4^28 or 32.4% instead of 23.7%.



The game has random elements in it. I'm sorry.
The game will not give an equal experience to players who put an equal amount of effort in. I'm sorry.
The game will not guarantee success even with the expenditure of real cash. I'm sorry.

 

[Sir Derf]

https://us.forum.elvenar.com/index.php?threads/crafting-recipes-master-list.22432/

Not registered on that forum. Have enough trouble dealing with one.

 

[Deleted User - 1759805]

Not registered on that forum. Have enough trouble dealing with one.

You don't need to be registered to see any Elvenar forum, you only need to do that to post.

 

[Sir Derf]

Sorry, the announcement that I was not logged in took up the whole screen. I didn't see that I could scroll down and actually see the forum contents.

Wow, that looks like fun.

 

[Sir Derf]

Paraphrased from "Guardians of the Galaxy"...

"Question. What if I there's a recipe that I wanna have and it shows up to someone else?"
"Then you will be disappointed."
"But what if I want it more than the person who has it?"
"Still disappointed."
"That doesn't follow. No, I want it more, sir. Do you understand me? What are you laughing at? What? I can't have a discussion with this gentleman?"

 

[Sir Derf]

Wow, there's a lot of interesting stuff in there, and yes, it appears that there's something more complicated going on under the hood.

On the one hand, my simplistic math given above is not a correct representation of how the game appears to be implemented.

On the other hand, I think it can serve as a splash-in-the-face grounding in reality for people wearing ocular prosthesis filtering in the 700nm range.

 

[ANIKHTOS]

second video is the general formulas you will use
first video is a mathematician actual doing the flips to see what he will get

fun fact he succeed it way faster than he expected but continues the experiment all the way to the end
and even when the fial rate for the remind tries was 46% he did not get a second 10 head in a row.

and his wording summarize it perfectly
everything that is probably to happen will happen and you will not have a control on when they will happen

and as i said in a previous post which you ignored., i have no problem with games of luck which a least is honest and you now form the start go that LUCK will be the dominant factor and not skill to win the game

i do not like games that they try to deceive people that if you put the time and effort you will succeed and you will progress your account.

game of luck yes they ahve a place an dyes many peopel will love to paly them
but at least when they do they do it knowign what they are playiing.
and what is the response of the person who started the thread?
that feel betreayed and wantas to stop the game and i do not blame them

which was my advice form me to many players in another game i had and had part of luck and some people where unlucky i said to them quit the game it does not worth your time and effort. i said to them if you want you can make a new account and try with that one while it may seem the same some times the new account was getting average luck

if the game will not guarantee the success with real money then it is a game of chance and need to be register as one
and i bet you the game is not register as a game of chance.

@moderatyor can i have an official answer if the game is classified as game of chance or not?
under what license the game is operating?

because a game askign for you to spent money and you will nto get what you want is a casino game and need a complet diferent licence.

and i am happy you agree with me
that there is no point to spent money on a game that will not qurantee me to get what i want.
in the games i spent money i spent them to get something i knew i will give that $ to get that.
if i want to gamble i will go to an online casino, at least if i get lucky i will get more real money to spent around not some pizeds on my screen.
l
ets wait for an official answer and then we will take the discussion from there.

 

[Hekata]

@MinMax Gamer I looked at your US server thread and it felt a bit like being in an episode of The Big Bang Theory (I love the show btw)
For us not so versed in maths and statistics: Is the conclusion that there are 2 pools one with frequent recipes and one with those more rare? Will you make a list of with recipe goes in which pool? And is there any way to know how recipes get picked from the pools? I have notice to frequently have a lot of constitutive selections of only those frequent recipes and then get all the rare items in the same selection. Wouldn't it be expected to have something like 4 recipes from the frequent pool mixed with 1 recipe from the not frequent pool?

 

[Sir Derf]

everything that is probably to happen will happen can happen and will eventually happen if you wait long enough and you will not have a control on when they will happen

Fixed it for you.

i do not like games that they try to deceive people that if you put the time and effort you will succeed and you will progress your account.

Is your account going backwards?

if the game will not guarantee the success with real money then it is a game of chance and need to be register as one
and i bet you the game is not register as a game of chance.

Register where? As a gambling site? For a game that gives no tangible rewards?

And I thought the problem was whether the game mechanics favored random vs. skill?