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Question Fighting after Fourteen

Far Reach

Conjurer
That said, that some people will do incomplete analysis is not an argument against doing any analysis.

I didn't read @Silly Bubbles 's comment as a criticism of doing "theoretical calculations", but rather as an implicit criticism against the premises on which they were based. Typically developing theory for a complex or ambiguous problem requires some simplifying assumptions first. Theoretical predictions should be tested against reality to help verify those assumptions.

Instead, I'll respond with a more general question back: Do you think that your request for a mathematical computation is impossible? Is the implementation of the game, a programmed algorithm of mathematical computations with RNG elements, unknowable?

I'm reading this is a philosophical (rather than practical) question. It has been established that mathematical provability has limits, and that not everything can be calculated. See: Godel's Incompleteness Theorems
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
I don't believe it is really debatable. I don't have the stats at my fingertips, but there is a lot of study in past threads. The effect of progression on tournament squad size has been calculated and documented by Minmax Gamer. As I understand it, there are no improvements, at least in chapter 16 or 17 that can keep pace with the increase in squad size. @CrazyWizard may be able to explain this better than me.

Do you have anything to go on to back that up, or is it just a feeling? Minmax's calculator can accurately map the changes in squad size. It may be that your scores haven't reduced, but that doesn't mean that the cost of maintaining that score hasn't increased. During that time you may have got more savvy in collecting the other required resources to keep doing what you are doing.
There is some bigger offset in the last chapter. but in general each chapter difficulty outpaces unit production by a decent margin.
Even after they doubled the production increase in some chapters. it's still not even close.
Those with 19-25K on a regular bases all have in common that they havent reached the last chapter, they are all stuck in the elevenar chapter.

The formula is very well know, and it's not hard to see how to "game it" gaming the formula always outstrips the advancement.
1 of the very problematic parts of the formula is the exponential part of the reseach tree. each chapter (exept the last) unit production increase slows down, while at the same time the exponential research part makes difficulty increase exponential. so unless unit production also increases exponentially there is no way that progressing chapters can ever keep up. they need to stay in line.

There is 1 caviat tho, the same that kept it interesting to keep progressing trough the chapters pre elvenar. and thats unit upgrades.
The new unit upgrades are massive IF you can use them agains the correct enemy. and that is most of the time not given.
A 10% damage reduction increase can reduce losses up to 50% agains the right enemy.

Those that already are in chapter 20 and do about 10-12K a week, told me it's a bit easier to keep up those scores. so it seems that those new units have some effect. it's nowhere near the 19-25K that some chapter 15 account seem to achieve, and once my tourney buster is complete (2 more chapters) nothing else will get anywhere close to the easy insane score tournaments.
But we schout take the win we can get i'll guess. very maybe if they keep from now on improving unit production by a lot with new chapters and introducing more 4* units it might change the tide a bit?
It all depends on the developers. they have to adjust the chapters to the stupidity of the new tourney formula. of that balance specifically agains the formula they can at least counter some of the issues (city size issue can never be adressed, but they can counter the research issue by having unit production in line with research increase, but it will require a change in philosophy when balancing chapters.)

Minmax Gamer haven't covered Ch18 and Ch19. Also, reality is always more reliable than theoretical calculations.



It's not a feeling. My stats prove that. If it was only because of players' are getting more savvy, wouldn't your score improve too? For me, it's really hard to improve after 5 years of playing. This is a very subjective topic and therefore not a reliable measure. Also, the fact that AW upgrades influence the difficulty is agreed on. The higher the number of AW upgrades, the more difficult fighting/catering is. When players park themselves, they don't escape this fact as they keep upgrading their AWs more than people that keep progressing through the chapters.

Do you play under a different name because someone doing 2.5K a week with an exception to 5k would not be able to tell the difference.
It's all in the range of boring, not competing and not a challenge at all.
And no reality is based on theory. if reality does not comform with the theory the theory is wrong

The formula is 99% known (they made some weight adjustments in numbers not in the formula itself)
as Said 4* units might make a difference but unless you show me a chapter 19 account doing weekly 20-25K without brute forcing it with either RL money. or some massive tricks from the past (for example 6 brown bears and 2 fire phoenixes).

What we do see it that the very best stable tournament top scorers are based in chapter 15. not chapter 19. those from chapter 19 all do save and dump as far as I have seen. so save 2 weeks dump it all in 1 week. brute forcing a result that way. or stay low for a while save a lot, and then throw it all in for multiple consecutive weeks. here is an example of a chapter 19 player.

1651630477948.png

It's obvious to see where those 20K scores come from. als those lows are "savings" for the high.
so you might see some chapter 19 players on the top regulary but when you look closer you see these kind of patterns.
 

Silly Bubbles

Necromancer
Do you play under a different name because someone doing 2.5K a week with an exception to 5k would not be able to tell the difference.
It's all in the range of boring, not competing and not a challenge at all.

Why wouldn't I be able to tell the difference? To me, improvement from 2K average per week in Ch15 to 2.5k per week in Ch19 is a great achievement considering the very little effort I do (4 rounds, only auto fight, no time instants for troops, only fire phoenix and alternate weeks with military expiring buildings). :D
Also, aren't you in Ch18? Wasn't your score suppose to go down, ignoring the "dumping" that you mentioned?
The high scores that you're talking about could be a result of different things eg people spending a lot of diamonds on pets and pet food. I think it's more relevant to focus on comparing chapter performance of a single player rather than performance between players that have different money spending habits.
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
Why wouldn't I be able to tell the difference? To me, improvement from 2K average per week in Ch15 to 2.5k per week in Ch19 is a great achievement considering the very little effort I do (4 rounds, only auto fight, no time instants for troops, only fire phoenix and alternate weeks with military expiring buildings). :D
Also, aren't you in Ch18? Wasn't your score suppose to go down, ignoring the "dumping" that you mentioned?
The high scores that you're talking about could be a result of different things eg people spending a lot of diamonds on pets and pet food. I think it's more relevant to focus on comparing chapter performance of a single player rather than performance between players that have different money spending habits.
Maybe I spend diamonds?, and maybe we just got a new pet.
I have another account on which I do about 8000+ points, I spend no diamonds or timeboosters there.
Fight both spire and tournaments.

2000 or 2500 points, I am sorry it has absolutely notihing to do with difficulty and all to do with effort.
You can even choose, cater or fight or whatever.

It's like saying you notice the handling difference in a regular and a race car when going from 15mph to 18mph.
At those speeds it all depends on the throttle not the car.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Respectfully, if your argument is that bad or incomplete theoretical math is bad, then say that. But when what is typed is disparaging theoretical math without any qualifiers, well then expect that there are people who will read what is typed and not what was meant.

Additionally, Godel's Incompleteness Theorem say's that math is "Incomplete", not "impossible"; that there will be some questions about math (or any logical system) that math (or any logical system) will be unable to answer, not that all questions will be unanswerable. We're not Doctor Stranging, trying to determine if there is at least one good outcome in a infinite number of options, nor are we probing the depths of Set Theory; we're evaluating an algebraic inequality by changing the variables in a defined formula. I think you have to provide a little more information before you can say that discussing the math of fighting while advancing is futile because it is a Godelian Incomplete question.
 

Silly Bubbles

Necromancer
Respectfully, if your argument is that bad or incomplete theoretical math is bad, then say that. But when what is typed is disparaging theoretical math without any qualifiers, well then expect that there are people who will read what is typed and not what was meant.

Additionally, Godel's Incompleteness Theorem say's that math is "Incomplete", not "impossible"; that there will be some questions about math (or any logical system) that math (or any logical system) will be unable to answer, not that all questions will be unanswerable. We're not Doctor Stranging, trying to determine if there is at least one good outcome in a infinite number of options, nor are we probing the depths of Set Theory; we're evaluating an algebraic inequality by changing the variables in a defined formula. I think you have to provide a little more information before you can say that discussing the math of fighting while advancing is futile because it is a Godelian Incomplete question.

To me, math is only as goods as it matches the reality. Once there's a need to twist the reality to make it fit the math, there's a problem.
 

Far Reach

Conjurer
Respectfully, if your argument is that bad or incomplete theoretical math is bad, then say that. But when what is typed is disparaging theoretical math without any qualifiers, well then expect that there are people who will read what is typed and not what was meant.

Additionally, Godel's Incompleteness Theorem say's that math is "Incomplete", not "impossible"; that there will be some questions about math (or any logical system) that math (or any logical system) will be unable to answer, not that all questions will be unanswerable. We're not Doctor Stranging, trying to determine if there is at least one good outcome in a infinite number of options, nor are we probing the depths of Set Theory; we're evaluating an algebraic inequality by changing the variables in a defined formula. I think you have to provide a little more information before you can say that discussing the math of fighting while advancing is futile because it is a Godelian Incomplete question.

I'm not quite clear whether you are seriously interested in my explanation, but I'll take it on faith that you are.

I haven't heard the term "Theoretical Math" before, but Google suggests that it is a phrase that a few US colleges use for what is usually referred to "Pure Mathematics" in the UK education system. I'm not clear whether you mean it in that context, or as a general term for abstracted mathematics. Regardless, as I stated above I didn't read @Silly Bubbles 's comment as a criticism of doing "theoretical calculations", but rather as an implicit criticism against the premises on which they were based. Typically developing theory for a complex or ambiguous problem requires some simplifying assumptions first. Theoretical predictions should be tested against reality to help verify those assumptions.

You seemed to be ignoring this view and instead to idealise the concept of "theoretical math". It was in that context that I raised Godel to provide an example of its limitations. I do not agree that here we're simply "evaluating an algebraic inequality by changing the variables in a defined formula.". It is indeed quite practical to come up with a reasonable estimate of the effect of progression on fighting capacity (and I've done that elsewhere on these forums), but I made some simplifying assumptions first. [I believe that this is necessary for this problem, and, more generally, that mathematical expertise in a case like this is all about the ability to consciously make good assumptions.]

The reason I suggested that you presented your analysis (of the impact of progression on fighting ability) was to draw out the assumptions that you were implicitly or explicitly making. This would help highlight the limitations of calculations in isolation. If you feel that you are able to demonstrate a direct mathematical solution then I urge you to do so.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
I've been using the phrasing "theoretical math" because that is the phrasing that @Silly Bubbles has been using in expressing his position, and I've been objecting to that position. A gracious assumption is that he refers to it as "theoretical" math because the formula that is generally understood to account for the impact on fighting ability accounting for research progress and AW levels, etc, has been derived through experimentation, and so is a best guess and not definitive based on knowing what the actual coding implementation is. I admit I don't know the details, but I believe that the effort that has gone into attempting to determine the fighting formula correlates with the observations fairly well. To repeat your phrasing, I do believe that the formula currently, the "theoretical predictions" have been "tested against reality to help verify those assumptions." If my gracious interpretation does agree with his usage, I disagree with his belief that the formula is not accurate or precise; I think it has been worked out to a pretty high agreement with reality. A pessimistic assumption is that he refers to it as "theoretical" math because he doesn't like the approach in general, possibly because he doesn't agree with the conclusions, and so is trying to express derision at the approach. Personally, I think it is at least partially the later, and represents a libel or slander at attempting to analyze the question with math; this will possibly make some people think I'm trying to be personally insulting again when I am trying to describe the argument and not the person, but I view the above use of the phrase "theoretical math" as being in the same vein as creationists referring to "evolutionism" and "scienters" or flat earthers referring to "globists"." Theoretical math" is being used in a negative way similar to references to gravity being "only a theory". If my pessimistic interpretation does agree with his usage, I object this characterization.

As for Godel applying in this situation, I again express my opinion that it does not apply in this situation. Whatever the actual implementation is, whatever the coding that is being executed, it is undoubtedly an implemetation of an overglorified game of war, a collectible card game conflict, a role playing game combat or other similar activity, a complex but fixed set of rules. At it's core, like war, it will boil down to who has the bigger number, expressed as a combination of squad size, unit health, damage, defense, etc, possibly requiring multiple rounds before determining the final outcome.. Like a CCG, there are modifiers on top of those base numbers; particular troop proficiencies, military improvements, AW levels, special buildings, fed pet effects, etc. And like an RPG, there is an involvement of an RNG. It's a complex process; there are many pieces. But, each piece is a fixed piece. Each piece can be explicitly and exactly stated. If known what the code is, each piece can be evaluated for what it's impact is, relative to all the other pieces in the algorithm. This produces knowable results. Understanding the Elvenar Fighting formula is not a Godel Incomplete problem.

In college, I played a card game called Mao. The dealer would secretly make up a set of rules, players would take turns playing cards and trying to make the correct reaction to the played card, and if they made the wrong reaction, they would be penalized by being given additional cards. The rule might be simple, like "state whether the played card is odd or even" or "state how many cards are now in your hand". The rule might be more complex, as in "state the opposite of the color of the previously played card" or "state three more than the number of cards in the hand of the player to your right". The rules might be really complicated, like "touch your nose with your left hand if you played a red card, give a card to the person on your left if you played an even card, take a card from the player on the right if you matched suit with the previously played card". If you demonstrated successful following of the rules for several rounds, you could secretly tell the dealer what you think the rule(s) is/are to see if you are right. The game would go to who guessed correctly first. Our situation with working out the Elvenar Fighting algorithm is a game of Mao with a complex set of rules, and the inability to ask the dealer if our guess at understanding those rules is correct. We can't know if we have gotten the correct answer, even if we are reasonably reliable in predicting average outcomes over many encounters after changing a game state, such as upgrading an AW or completing a Research. In this way, the answer is ultimately unknowable. But, it is not unknowable because it is Godelian Incomplete. The Elvenar fighting process does have a fixed set of rules. There are a fixed number of inputs, being combined in a fixed process, and incorporating random elements in a fixed way; if we could see the code, we could select a set of values for all the inputs and do all the calculations ourselves, and with those selected set of values we could compute the impact of the RNG elements, and thus we could get an exact knowledge of the entire process. If we knew the code, we could know the answer. That we don't know the code, and thus can't be certain we know the answer, does not make this a Godel Incomplete situation. For a game of Mao to be Godel Incomplete, the dealer would have to choose a set of rules that, because of very specific circumstances, the dealer would not know what the proper response is under for at least some play . The rules would result in a particular type of unresolvable question. To the best of my understanding, the Elvenar Fighting algorithm does not compute itself into a mathematical Godelian dead end.
 

Far Reach

Conjurer
@Sir Derf - Thank you for your response. I think that it would be best if we just agree to disagree. My earlier posts on this thread cover most of the points which I wanted to make, and there is no need to repeat them. This has obviously been a frustrating thread for you, and it has been for me too.
 

Silly Bubbles

Necromancer
A pessimistic assumption is that he refers to it as "theoretical" math because he doesn't like the approach in general, possibly because he doesn't agree with the conclusions, and so is trying to express derision at the approach. Personally, I think it is at least partially the later, and represents a libel or slander at attempting to analyze the question with math; this will possibly make some people think I'm trying to be personally insulting again when I am trying to describe the argument and not the person, but I view the above use of the phrase "theoretical math" as being in the same vein as creationists referring to "evolutionism" and "scienters" or flat earthers referring to "globists"." Theoretical math" is being used in a negative way similar to references to gravity being "only a theory". If my pessimistic interpretation does agree with his usage, I object this characterization.

It seems that you just personally don't like me and like to jump into conclusions that are not only incorrect overall, you have also seen enough of my posts to see that I actually like math as long as it's correct and I made quite a bit of money using it. You aren't the only one that doesn't like me because I might've proved you wrong somewhere in the past, that's my lifetime curse. ;)

Ps. I love your confidence at using "he". :D
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Apologies for the ingrained linguistic habits of decades of reading, writing and speaking. I love your confidence in assuming that my reflex vocabulary choice involved any level of awareness, introspection or decision making, let alone confidence in accuracy. :)D right back at ya) And future apologies on my part should, despite drawing my attention to this, it reoccurs.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
@Sir Derf - Thank you for your response. I think that it would be best if we just agree to disagree. My earlier posts on this thread cover most of the points which I wanted to make, and there is no need to repeat them. This has obviously been a frustrating thread for you, and it has been for me too.
Not trying to disagree at this point. I reread your posts again, and as you put in the second post, I am seriously interested in your explanation. Generically, I am aware of Godel and have some understanding of the concept that axiomatic logical systems, like math, are either incomplete or inconsistent, that therefore there will be some unprovable truths. What I don't understand is why bringing this up has applicability to the question of this thread, namely can we evaluate the relative increases and decreases of game progression on fighting performance. What aspect of this question do you think is axiomatically incomplete or inconsistent (which is different than just being incomplete or wrongly inconsistent). I honestly don't see how this falls into Godelian territory.
 
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