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Events : which is best rotating chest ?

tonton-des-bois

Illusionist
I made some calculations to know which chest to choose if your goal is to get more daily rewards or to get more goo for the final rewards... in the lists below, choose the upper chest from the 3 you got proposed to have more chance to reach your goal.

Remark : the (numbers) are the tickets costs for each chests. (just note those numbers on a piece of paper not to swap views while "spining the wheel")

Strategy 1 - Daily rewards
The following are the chests with, for each, the chance/ticket to get the daily... the best are from top to bottom, just pick the highest among your 3 choices...
1. Wooden Chest (53) = 0.472%
2. Charming Chest (68) = 0.288% (0.147% + 0.141% from extra tickets)
3. Valuable Chest (36) = 0.278%
4. Charming Chest (85) = 0.235%
5. Valuable Chest (46) = 0.217%
6. Magical Chest (140) = 0.214%
7. Mysterious Chest (62) = 0.194%
8. Mysterious Chest (86) = 0.174%
9. Magical Chest (109) = 0.092%

Strategy 2 - Goo for Grand Prizes
The following are the chests with, for each, the goo/ticket... the best are from top to bottom, just pick the highest among your 3 choices...
1. Charming Chest (68) = 0.182 (0.118 + 0.064 from extra tickets)
2. Valuable Chest (46) = 0.130
3. Magical Chest (109) = 0.119
4. Mysterious Chest (62) = 0.113
5. Valuable Chest (36) = 0.111
6. Mysterious Chest (86) = 0.105
7. Charming Chest (85) = 0.094
8. Wooden Chest (53) = 0.075
9. Magical Chest (140) = 0.050

Dailies with old chests (previously) vs rotating chests (event of July 2018)
I've finished to compare the chances of getting dailies with the ancient and the new system...
I use a spoiler to add more suspens... ;)
Huh... you aren't in a hurry, are you ? :D
Let's try again...
Ancient chest system with 4K items : 9.86 chances to get a daily (little chest)
New chest system with 4K items : 11.24 chances to get a daily (strategy 1 on an average range of chests combos)
So... The new system is FAIR !!! :eek::p:confused:

Note : the chances are 14.22 for 5060 tickets so if you don't have 4K tickets, divide 14.22 by 5060 and multiply the result by your amount of tickets to know your statistical chances to get dailies ;)
Remember : stats are only close to reality with huge numbers (usually, 1000 samples/tries are a minimum), the more tries, the closer you should be... So, even with 4K, you can only count on about 66 tries and you can get between 6 and 15 dailies in reality (worse & bests real numbers I've heard of) :)

Stats vs Reality...
Let's compare some true stories to the maths...
I was pretty lucky with my 2 accounts, the first one got "cheap" chests over the average so I did a lot more tries, the second one got a lot of (53) chests over the average and they paid much more than the planed 30%...

1. 4100 tickets, statistical chances : 68 tries & 11.5 dailies - For real : 82 tries & 16 dailies
2. 3919 tickets, statistical chances : 65 tries & 11 dailies - For real : 63 tries & 17 dailies
3. LazyTony, 4000 tickets, statistical chances : 66 tries & 11.24 dailies - For real : ? tries & 17 dailies

So, atm, reality overpassed the fiction ;)
 
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tonton-des-bois

Illusionist
just 3 more words...
1. remember to choose a double goo day if your goal is the GPs...
2. "thank you for the fish" to LazyTony, m4rt1n & Lisica for supporting
3. For the Charming Chest effect, I've first calculated the recursive effect of gaining extra tickets until the gain was unsignificant, than I added the average gain of dailies or goo for those extra tickets as the "next turn" was unpredictable so an average was best candidate... it's a bit of a shortcut, it's my view of the logic of it but I'm usually good enough with maths, statistics and logic (*) ... I can't garantee it's mathematically pure but it's close enough imo ;)

(*)nationaly ranked top 3 at Math Olympics at highschool and IT as job, psycho & logic as hobbies - some would say "geek" :p
 
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LazyTony

Sorcerer
Understood tonton, and that all sounds very reasonable to me - accurate enough to make no difference.

I used your table last night to spend a little over 4k tickets on my favourite building of this event, the festival camping grounds. I won 17 of them :)
 

tonton-des-bois

Illusionist
Nice, if you weren't touched by Tyche's finger, this sounds even better than the previous system efficiency... if we assume that tickets are equal to nuts to gain (I think we are close for that part), 4k nuts had a statistical average chance to give only 9.86 dailies with the little chest of the ancient system... and I remember my best 2 shots were 15 Winter Gardens & 13 Frozen Fountains but I had been very lucky...
 
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LazyTony

Sorcerer
Yeah, I have done 6 or so of these big events in my time playing, and I nearly always finish the sequential quests before the day my favourite building appears, and spend everything on getting that building. My previous best was 11, and have gone as low as 8.

I do think I was particularly lucky last night though :)
 

JackHobbs

Adventurer
Have you any stats on one's target being the timers (Boosters) like 40h 14h etc.

OK...may seem odd but given the choice of
a) Magical Chest (109) ...30% 40h Boost
b) Mysterious Chest (62)...30% 5h or 30% 8h Boost

as the GOO is 13 and 7 then it is quite relative,,,

so on 30 goes ,,,I would expect 9 40h boosts or ~60 goes ~36 5h or 8h boosts...??

Is my maths correct ??
 

tonton-des-bois

Illusionist
If you just choose between Magical (109) and Mysterious (62) with, let's say 3000 tickets,
you will get 27.52 goes with chest (109) that will give you around (27.52goes * 30%) 8.25 times 40h boosts (total 330h),
if you go with chest (62) you will get 48.38 goes that will give you around (48.38goes * 30%) 14.51 times 5h or 8h boosts (total 94h)...
So if you're focused on time boosters, the (109) chest will give you more hours...
And if you just go for the time boosters, if you don't have any of the (109) or (62), use the cheapest chest to redraw the chests and remember that the Charming Chest (68) is in fact the cheapest one because of the extra tickets... its "real" cost is averagely 25.24 tickets...
 
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JackHobbs

Adventurer
If you just choose between Magical (109) and Mysterious (62) with, let's say 3000 tickets,
you will get 27.52 goes with chest (109) that will give you around (27.52goes * 30%) 8.25 times 40h boosts (total 330h),
if you go with chest (62) you will get 48.38 goes that will give you around (48.38goes * 30%) 14.51 times 5h or 8h boosts (total 94h)...
So if you're focused on time boosters, the (109) chest will give you more hours...
And if you just go for the time boosters, if you don't have any of the (109) or (62), use the cheapest chest to redraw the chests and remember that the Charming Chest (68) is in fact the cheapest one because of the extra tickets... its "real" cost is averagely 25.24 tickets...
Many thanks !!!