#### tonton-des-bois

##### Illusionist

I made some calculations to know which chest to choose if your goal is to get more daily rewards or to get more goo for the final rewards... in the lists below, choose the upper chest from the 3 you got proposed to have more chance to reach your goal.

Remark : the (numbers) are the tickets costs for each chests. (just note those numbers on a piece of paper not to swap views while "spining the wheel")

The following are the chests with, for each, the chance/ticket to get the daily... the best are from top to bottom, just pick the highest among your 3 choices...

1. Wooden Chest (53) = 0.472%

2. Charming Chest (68) = 0.288% (0.147% + 0.141% from extra tickets)

3. Valuable Chest (36) = 0.278%

4. Charming Chest (85) = 0.235%

5. Valuable Chest (46) = 0.217%

6. Magical Chest (140) = 0.214%

7. Mysterious Chest (62) = 0.194%

8. Mysterious Chest (86) = 0.174%

9. Magical Chest (109) = 0.092%

The following are the chests with, for each, the goo/ticket... the best are from top to bottom, just pick the highest among your 3 choices...

1. Charming Chest (68) = 0.182 (0.118 + 0.064 from extra tickets)

2. Valuable Chest (46) = 0.130

3. Magical Chest (109) = 0.119

4. Mysterious Chest (62) = 0.113

5. Valuable Chest (36) = 0.111

6. Mysterious Chest (86) = 0.105

7. Charming Chest (85) = 0.094

8. Wooden Chest (53) = 0.075

9. Magical Chest (140) = 0.050

I've finished to compare the chances of getting dailies with the ancient and the new system...

I use a spoiler to add more suspens...

Huh... you aren't in a hurry, are you ?

Let's try again...
Ancient chest system with 4K items : 9.86 chances to get a daily (little chest)

New chest system with 4K items : 11.24 chances to get a daily (strategy 1 on an average range of chests combos)

So... The new system is

Note : the chances are 14.22 for 5060 tickets so if you don't have 4K tickets, divide 14.22 by 5060 and multiply the result by your amount of tickets to know your statistical chances to get dailies

Remember : stats are only close to reality with huge numbers (usually, 1000 samples/tries are a minimum), the more tries, the closer you should be... So, even with 4K, you can only count on about 66 tries and you can get between 6 and 15 dailies in reality (worse & bests real numbers I've heard of)

Let's compare some true stories to the maths...

I was pretty lucky with my 2 accounts, the first one got "cheap" chests over the average so I did a lot more tries, the second one got a lot of (53) chests over the average and they paid much more than the planed 30%...

1. 4100 tickets, statistical chances : 68 tries & 11.5 dailies - For real : 82 tries & 16 dailies

2. 3919 tickets, statistical chances : 65 tries & 11 dailies - For real : 63 tries & 17 dailies

3. LazyTony, 4000 tickets, statistical chances : 66 tries & 11.24 dailies - For real : ? tries & 17 dailies

So, atm, reality overpassed the fiction

Remark : the (numbers) are the tickets costs for each chests. (just note those numbers on a piece of paper not to swap views while "spining the wheel")

**Strategy 1 - Daily rewards**The following are the chests with, for each, the chance/ticket to get the daily... the best are from top to bottom, just pick the highest among your 3 choices...

1. Wooden Chest (53) = 0.472%

2. Charming Chest (68) = 0.288% (0.147% + 0.141% from extra tickets)

3. Valuable Chest (36) = 0.278%

4. Charming Chest (85) = 0.235%

5. Valuable Chest (46) = 0.217%

6. Magical Chest (140) = 0.214%

7. Mysterious Chest (62) = 0.194%

8. Mysterious Chest (86) = 0.174%

9. Magical Chest (109) = 0.092%

**Strategy 2 - Goo for Grand Prizes**The following are the chests with, for each, the goo/ticket... the best are from top to bottom, just pick the highest among your 3 choices...

1. Charming Chest (68) = 0.182 (0.118 + 0.064 from extra tickets)

2. Valuable Chest (46) = 0.130

3. Magical Chest (109) = 0.119

4. Mysterious Chest (62) = 0.113

5. Valuable Chest (36) = 0.111

6. Mysterious Chest (86) = 0.105

7. Charming Chest (85) = 0.094

8. Wooden Chest (53) = 0.075

9. Magical Chest (140) = 0.050

**Dailies with old chests (previously) vs rotating chests (event of July 2018)**I've finished to compare the chances of getting dailies with the ancient and the new system...

I use a spoiler to add more suspens...

Let's try again...

New chest system with 4K items : 11.24 chances to get a daily (strategy 1 on an average range of chests combos)

So... The new system is

**FAIR**!!!

Note : the chances are 14.22 for 5060 tickets so if you don't have 4K tickets, divide 14.22 by 5060 and multiply the result by your amount of tickets to know your statistical chances to get dailies

Remember : stats are only close to reality with huge numbers (usually, 1000 samples/tries are a minimum), the more tries, the closer you should be... So, even with 4K, you can only count on about 66 tries and you can get between 6 and 15 dailies in reality (worse & bests real numbers I've heard of)

**Stats vs Reality...**Let's compare some true stories to the maths...

I was pretty lucky with my 2 accounts, the first one got "cheap" chests over the average so I did a lot more tries, the second one got a lot of (53) chests over the average and they paid much more than the planed 30%...

1. 4100 tickets, statistical chances : 68 tries & 11.5 dailies - For real : 82 tries & 16 dailies

2. 3919 tickets, statistical chances : 65 tries & 11 dailies - For real : 63 tries & 17 dailies

3. LazyTony, 4000 tickets, statistical chances : 66 tries & 11.24 dailies - For real : ? tries & 17 dailies

So, atm, reality overpassed the fiction

Last edited: