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Dwarven Armorers

foolfighter

Alchemist
I play 5 cities and take them all to the top of the Spire every week. I can't remember the last time I won a Dwarven Armorer in any of them, despite winning many gold chests. Not winning in one city may easily be just a statistical quirk, but in all 5.....? There are multiple opportunities to win DAs in any weeks's Spire with rates of either 10% or 20%, and in the past I'd win perhaps 4 a week over the 5 cities, now nothing for weeks. I can't help thinking their probabilities have been quietly "adjusted".
 

Jake65

Sage
I think I may be getting all the stock of DAs, haha.
Last few weeks have been good for me, I've currently got 7 of them.
RNG being otherwise? This event I've won hardly any bonus currency whereas I usually get quite a good amount.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Just got one last night.

But then, why believe me? I'm just a Random Net Gentleman (tm) describing a Random New Gift (tm).
 

foolfighter

Alchemist
Just got one last night.

But then, why believe me? I'm just a Random Net Gentleman (tm) describing a Random New Gift (tm).
I'm fully aware of the randomness of random, amongst other things I teach statistics, but the problem is the probability of my situation is now stretching the limits of credulity on the basis of the null hypothesis that they claim for the chances of winning a DA are true.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
What are the chances that a game developer which shows RNG odds would implement anything other than a straight call to a standard RNG generator that references the same table of RNG odds?
 

SkyRider99

Mentor
What are the chances that a game developer which shows RNG odds would implement anything other than a straight call to a standard RNG generator that references the same table of RNG odds?
To answer that I would need to refer to my RNG.

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CrazyWizard

Shaman
You are not alone mate! Down with RNG! :mad:

If indeed it is RNG rearing its ugly head. Anyone for a juicy conspiracy theory?
I once did not get one for more than 3 months, in general I gain 1 every 2 weeks for the past few years. yees I got screwed those months but I aso got great months.

Its more about resource mangement, don't use them all when you get them many.

I got 11 now I think
This means I can survice a dry spell of 22 weeks and not suffer any consequenses. when it rains I save them up again it's been stable now for as long as they exist
 

schadenfreude

Enchanter
I have 38 in inventory. I have been hoarding them for when I can do 10k regularly in tourney. I can't yet and probably won't until Constructs, so *sprinkles more dust onto them*. Until then, I'm only using one UUU.
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
Some of them are from Chap 4 so it's not me messing with the supply! But at least I can future proof a dry spell on RNG!
Well while 38 is overkill creating stock is a very good move.

RNG will come with great and bad moment, stocks of buildings give you the ability to ignore any RNG as you can absorb bad moments untill you hit a rain of the items again.

The most difficult thing is to figure out what the droprate is over the long term, get some stock and then stick to the long term average or stay a tiny bitt below it so stocks very slowly rise over a long period of time. this completely removed the whole RNG thing.

But most people do not have the patience of creating stock, and when a dryspell hits them it hurts them a lot and makes them very frustrated.
The RNG has a direct impact on there gameplay and it sucks.

I always play in a way to negate the RNG in as many ways as I possibly can, this makes me pretty much imune agains RNG frustration.
 

schadenfreude

Enchanter
Exactly. I am doing ok getting to 7-8k on one UUU so why waste the DAs now? I imagine I'd need more buffing when I get to 10k, so why not save them for later. I don't have a Timewarp yet so I can't stretch my buff buildings out for 2 weeks each time. Until then, hoarding it is!
 

Skallywag

Spellcaster
I'm fully aware of the randomness of random, amongst other things I teach statistics, but the problem is the probability of my situation is now stretching the limits of credulity on the basis of the null hypothesis that they claim for the chances of winning a DA are true.
Or to borrow a phrase from Princess Bride, "Inconceivable!"
 

Laurelin

Sorcerer
1. Who has ever - I mean, literally ever - spent [a lot] of money AND time taking any gaming company to court and thus PROVING whether the stated odds given in any game - when it comes to calls to any RNG they may or may not be using - are factually correct? And so, who would know the answer to this question? And how?

2. The Spire was introduced almost three years ago, and substantially revised in terms of individual rewards around a year later. Team-based rewards were also substantially changed as a later and/or parallel alteration - I can't remember which it was. And as with almost everything else in this game, it is very probable that minor 'silent' adjustments were made before, and/or have been made after, those two publicly announced major changes. I closely observe the Spire's behaviour each week, and it is actually very far from random. In fact, the more minor adjustments are quite visible, even if [obviously] slight in degree, being minor, and appear to involve everything from the level of randomness and/or typical composition of Enemy Squad types - this varies noticeably from week to week - to the probability of winning specific items, particularly Spell Fragments (of which those who did not win the overly large amounts available during the Spire's first year - i.e. before the amounts were greatly reduced - will be slightly short each week (even according to the Spire's given odds of winning them, although I personally fall much shorter).

3. During pre-Guest Race Spire 2-Stage [Silver] finishes, which I attained almost every week of its first 1½ years, with rarer Gold finishes maybe once per 6-8 weeks during that time, I won, on average, 2-3 DAs per month. Obviously never enough even to use one per week, and of course therefore not enough to build any stockpile at all. I kept records of what I won during that first year, but have now deleted them - they ran to many pages of hand-typed text, and I don't keep all of my Elvenar records forever... I'm not THAT boring - nor that bored, yet!

4. During post-Guest Race Spire 2-Stage [Silver] finishes, which I have attained almost every week of its second 1½ years, to date, with increasing numbers of Gold results (around a year at one Gold per 4-6 weeks, then three months at one Gold per month, rising steadily to now [previous six weeks] one Gold per week), I have won less than half as many DAs, on a consistently repeating basis. Records kept for first six months.

If the above has nothing to do with the underlying RNG odds - which, again, none of us can see; what we see is plain text stating that the % chances are X, Y, and Z %, not the actual RNG itself in operation - then I would imagine that the odds in favour of my maintaining two such consistently different DA averages must be astronomically low, considering the extremely obvious parallel with the major difference between the two very different levels of 'DA-luck', if it can be called that, which is, of course, the single factor of being either pre- or post-Guest Race level.

Conclusion : Unless I am seeing an absolutely extraordinary RNG pattern - which I doubt I am, over such a long time, and over so many Silver+ Spire attempts - there is genuinely far less chance of winning a DA once one enters the Guest Races.

If anyone can demonstrate that the written text stating % chances of winning anything at all in this game are exactly equal to the % chances used by Inno's RNG software, I would love to know how to emulate such a feat. I myself am doubtful of this being true - and I believe the same of MANY of the RNG-based mobile games which I have also played, and in which I have ALSO seen extremely unlikely events repeatedly occurring, at % rates which do not accord, long-term, with those publicly stated in that game, whether the discrepancy is in my own favour or not.

The one factor which appears to be common to all such RNG-related 'mysteriously inaccurate stated odds' is whether or not the player is new to the game (by that particular game's standards of timescale), in which case their results almost always tend to be overly 'fortunate'.

This may all be pure chance. That's the beauty of it, isn't it? Whatever we may say - the answer will always be: "RNG gonna RNG!" Yes. OK then.
 

SkyRider99

Mentor
there is genuinely far less chance of winning a DA once one enters the Guest Races.
True words. I wouldn't know if the chances are 'genuinely' less, but I see so few DAs that I could believe they no longer exist, except as a fable.

Why the game persists in bias and punishment towards long term advanced players is unjustifiable. I have read a lot of posts and so-called reasons for their doing so, but being successful in the game shouldn't mean they can place their boot on your neck. :(
 

Silly Bubbles

Necromancer
So at this moment I have 5 DAs and 12 UUU. I usually use 100% boost every second week to get to the top of the Spire weekly but lately I started using 125% as I seemed to start stockpiling them. I also check all four rotations of MA crafting to get all army boost buildings I can get. It does happen that I run out of DAs but then UUUs make up for that. I'm not really sure how many of them you're using but it's possible to spread them out to make up for dry spells. As far as I remember I've had at least three weeks without winning any DAs.
 

Laurelin

Sorcerer
Why the game persists in bias and punishment towards long term advanced players is unjustifiable.
Well, I am the last to support this, but I'm guessing that we both know that the reason is : "because money", as it almost always is, these days, in successful mobile games. If you're a late-gamer - i.e. in the category of player which is the least likely still to be paying (whether or not they once did; loyalty isn't worth any money, sadly) - you're also in the 'most expensive to maintain' player category, too, since you'll be: (a) generally savvy (and so not likely to fall for any of the usual high-pressure spending 'incentives' which newbies don't see for what they are); (b) also unlike newbs, likely to be aware of how the 2020 Formula works, and thus also unlikely to over-develop your City to the point of [unwittingly] over-spending on in-game Resources; (c) likely to expect good-quality upcoming high-level content (the most expensive element of most games like this), and; (d) vocal about all of the above - whether here, in-game, or, most importantly to Inno, in wider-access arenas such as Social Meeja, Play Store, etc.

And so, within the now-prevalent corporate strategy of revenue-generation from constantly replaced, shorter-term new players (the 'revolving-door' concept about which I've bored on elsewhere, so I won't do it yet again here!), as now relied upon by many mobile games as their primary revenue source, you're not a statistically good bet when it comes to bringing in the pennies... even though some longer-term players [but far fewer than in the heyday of 'whale'-type players funding almost everyone else] consistently spend a LOT - and good luck to them, says I! :)

I have read a lot of posts and so-called reasons for their doing so, but being successful in the game shouldn't mean they can place their boot on your neck.
Now THERE's a well-stated opinion after my own heart! But I'm sure you know that already, as I think you read at least some of my rambles? :D

But all the above said - I love nothing more than to theorise about where Inno is taking this game (who'da thunk? Haha)... and I personally believe that those of us who are already quite well into the Guest Races, at the moment, will largely be left alone by Inno, despite the very major changes being made to the early game, which are squarely aimed at anyone starting a new City (as will become immediately apparent once those changes fully go live, after the evidently very extensive ongoing A/B Testing - probably more like A-Z Testing, in fact, with a whole host of slightly different initial setups being offered to many sub-sets of new players - which is another habit of modern mobile games which I very much don't admire).

I've also said elsewhere that Elvenar, with its close-to-unique provenance and its less-than-standard target playerbase, really doesn't fit well into the 'revolving-door' strategy, and Inno are far more shrewd than most mobile gaming companies, too, and thus aren't - in my opinion - likely to cut their own throats, as many similar companies do, in what amounts to a race for ONLY those new, green, and often [small-ish] spending-compliant players who have become the bread and butter of the mobile gaming industry these days. As such, I very much doubt whether Inno will push any of us long-termers very hard, so I think we - unfair though this is - will end up with a far more pleasant and lower-pressure gaming experience in Elvenar than those (especially genuine newbies) who start new Cities in future.

Futhermore, and despite the significant alterations the game has seen over the past year or even two, I don't think it likely that [any more] major changes to the core existing mid-to-end-game will be put in place, either alongside or after the early-game changes are formally implemented; I think Inno knows that doing so would be highly counter-productive in many ways. After all, why drive away [many of] those who still MIGHT spend a fair bit on unpredictable niceties of their own choice, within or outwith Inno's revenue strategies - and who will also, of course, keep building their admirable and enviable large Cities for the newbies to try to emulate? And to be a BIT less cynical, the same long-term players are also the very players who have always underpinned Inno's uncommon longevity - in a world of predominantly short-to-mid-term companies which really don't mind being 'here today, gone in 5-10 years', if a decent level of earnings can be acquired during that time.

And so, in my opinion, and on top of the strategic and financial advantages of retaining active 'paradigm' large/late-Citiy players for early-gamers to envy and/or emulate, I believe that despite my sometimes apparently hostile stance towards Inno, they do still care about the quality of their games - certainly those which have a long pre-mobile history in the PC/browser world - whether or not Inno's 'proud of game quality' camp is slowly shrinking in favour of the 'cash is king' camp - and even though, yes, they're pretty keen on maximising the readies, too; which business isn't, after all, in a market as ferociously competitive - and potentially lucrative - as mobile gaming has - and will further - become?

Largely for these reasons, then, plus a few more which I won't introduce into this already overly lengthy post, I myself anticipate a relatively relaxed, low-stress, and still-pleasant in-game future for those of us who aren't starting the game anew, as of about now, and/or - importantly - who aren't planning to enter into strong competition with smaller, newer Cities which (until they, too, reach the mid-game), will have major competitive advantages by [Inno's] design. Obvious example: although [new] specialist 'Tourney/Spire-killing' Cities are, it seems, being pushed quite a way forward from Ch.III to around Ch.VI (via a strong attempt by Inno at limiting/over-stretching their Resources and narrowly standardising their builds), they'll still be able to out-score [most] later, larger, Cities which are, again by Inno's [later] design, heavily disadvantaged by the 2020 Spire/Tourney Formula.

And on THAT note... er, sorry! I appear yet again to have re-hashed several of the same well-worn arguments I've so often rehearsed here, near enough, even though there was really no need, this time, for more than a couple of lines of text. It really IS a bad, but long-term, habit of mine.

Therefore, if anyone HAS actually read through some or all of this long waffle - many thanks for your admirable determination...! :oops:

[Minor edits for the inevitable typos... /sigh]
 
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SkyRider99

Mentor
... for those of us who aren't starting the game anew, as of about now, and/or - importantly - who aren't planning to enter into strong competition with smaller, newer Cities which (until they, too, reach the mid-game), will have major competitive advantages by [Inno's] design. Obvious example: although [new] specialist 'Tourney/Spire-killing' Cities are, it seems, being pushed quite a way forward from Ch.III to around Ch.VI (via a strong attempt by Inno at limiting/over-stretching their Resources and narrowly standardising their builds), they'll still be able to out-score [most] later, larger, Cities which are, again by Inno's [later] design, heavily disadvantaged by the 2020 Spire/Tourney Formula.
I am seeing this in my fellowship. Every week there are members with smaller cities, lower ranking, and presumably lower CAL, who regularly out-perform me on Spire/Tournament. But it is good for the FS, and we get 10/11/12 tournament chests as a result. I will just keep putting in my 5,000+ points and remain philosophical about the iniquities of life. :rolleyes:

Therefore, if anyone HAS actually read through some or all of this long waffle
I need coffee now :D
 
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