CrazyWizard
Shaman
Firstly, the figures you give for SFs miss out the 12th chest (55% chance of 2000 fragments) which increases the available daily SFs by about one third above your number.
The point of my argument though is that CCs become the sticking point before SFs, although I do accept that this will depend to some extent upon which recipes one goes for. I haven't compiled or verified a personal list of recipes, but checking the comprehensive list of MinMaxgamer's site, we can clearly see that the vast majority of recipes consume CCs. You seem to be explicitly favoring recipes (e.g for petfood and time-boosters) which only consume SFs. Most pet-food recipes actually consume only CCs, and you might get a different answer if you considered them.
Looks like they revamped the 12th chest recently with the addition of sip of clarity.
So here the new calculation.
Level 1:
1st chest 500 x 60% = 300
2nd chest 1000 x 40% = 400
3rd chest 1250 x 20% = 250
4th: none
5th chest 500 x 60% = 300
6th chest 1000 x 40% = 400
7th chest 1250 x 20% = 250
8th: none
9th chest 500 x 60% = 300
10th chest 1000 x 40% = 400
11th chest 1250 x 20% = 250
12th: chest 2000 x 55% = 1100
13th chest 500 x 60% = 300
14th chest 1000 x 40% = 400
15th chest 1250 x 20% = 250
16th: none
------------------------------------
total: 4900 spell fragments.
Level 2 is the same so another 4900 spellfragments
Level 3:
1st chest 500 x 60% = 300
2nd chest 1000 x 40% = 400
3rd chest 1250 x 20% = 250
4th: none
5th chest 500 x 60% = 300
6th chest 1000 x 40% = 400
7th chest 1250 x 20% = 250
8th: none
9th chest 500 x 60% = 300
10th chest 1000 x 40% = 400
11th chest 1250 x 20% = 250
12th: none
13th chest 500 x 60% = 300
14th chest 1000 x 40% = 400
15th chest 1250 x 20% = 250
16th: none
------------------------------------
total: 3800 spell fragments.
So we now get 13600 spellfragments per week
Thats 1942 spelfragments per day or 485 spelfragmens per cycle
It now means from the above list about 50% asks less and 50% asks more. the average is 568 spellfragments per crafting.
So now it's closer to but the spire alone still can't supply all the spellfragment you need for crafting, and surely doesnt make an oversupply as some suggest if you craft at least 1 item per cycle.
But yeah it's closer than it was not too long ago.
If you want an overvieuw of all the prizes (missing gold and purple chest as I did only got 3 blue ones this week.
http://crazywizard.info/doa/spire.png
Cant show it on the forum because it doesn't let me I get an administrator warning or whatever.