Spire Changes

[DeletedUser6096]

If players belong to a big fellowship with many members participating then great they will easily win the awards
Many fellowships hve small numbers of players who actually do the spire and or tourney events and even fewer who do the FSA individual evenst such as the phoenix cult
I feel players like myself who always complete the 1st gate ;level will be compromised by the diamonds being reduced for single player prizes on completion of 1st 5 rungs of ladder
Many others will probably feel similarly to this It is sad that many have given up playing Some as a direct result of all the changes continually being made and the FSA's used to be 1 every 3 months now they are every month and people get fed up of doing them so often. I myself love everything mystical and magical especially fairies and elves etc
Bella Donna 1

 

[Deleted User - 1759805]

If players belong to a big fellowship with many members participating then great they will easily win the awards

If you're talking about the final team chest, then I can assure you that this is not easy for any FS. There are several servers that I know of where not a single FS hits it (including #1 / heavily blue ones).

 

[CrazyWizard]

As MinMax gamer said, it ain't an easy feat, it's like winning the FSA.

Let me explain
a fellowship has max 25 members.

Of those 25 members 25 members need to finish both the first and the second level of the tower.
Then out of those 25 another 14 need to reach the top of the tower.

If only 1 person bails out 2 additional people need to reach te summit as well.

an absolute minimum of 22 people are needed to reach the summit, and in that case at least 21 need to reach that summit as wel.

Aka the tower asks for a really good coordination between all members to be succesfull.

 

[Deleted User - 1759805]

As MinMax gamer said, it ain't an easy feat, it's like winning the FSA.

If by winning FSA you mean completing stage 3, then a lot more FS do that than the ones that reach gold Spire level... Max Spire is noticeably harder (mostly because a smaller active core cannot carry the whole FS as can be done in FSA and tournaments).

 

[CrazyWizard]

If by winning FSA you mean completing stage 3, then a lot more FS do that than the ones that reach gold Spire level... Max Spire is noticeably harder (mostly because a smaller active core cannot carry the whole FS as can be done in FSA and tournaments).

No I meant reaching the gold medal, FSA is a team feat, reaching 3rd stage yourself is an individual feat.

 

[Pauly7]

Aka the tower asks for a really good coordination between all members to be succesfull.

I'm not sure co-ordination is the word. Everyone just has to do it.

@Bella Donna 1 you are right though. The changes to the Spire penalise all, but the very small minority of Fellowships who win a gold medal in any week.

 

[DeletedUser7874]

I think they've over-tweaked the Spire difficulty. On the penultimate chest in Gateway I just threw away 6 goes worth of resources, tools and cash without winning it.
On 2 consecutive attempts I didn't get a single one right.
Another feature of the game that seems intended only for top-level players, along with the FA, lower / middle ranking players like myself don't stand a chance

 

[Sir Derf]

Random is as Random does. Of course, you could have made a logical error, but that withstanding, sometimes you will be wrong.

Somewhere, somewhen, someone will be presented with five Spirits wanting five goods 51234, and that person will guess 12345, 23451, 34512 and 45123. Four rounds, each one a perfectly reasonable, not illogical guess, and each one completely and totally unsuccessful.

Elsewhere, elsewhen, elseone will be successful first try with 12345. It is the combination on my luggage, afterall. Maybe I should change that?

 

[DeletedUser8422]

my issue with the spire is that i keep winning unwanted spell fragments..it used to be a great way to stock up on catalysts or gain more time skips .....seriously...what am i to do with 130 000 spell fragments ???? also very few mystery chests appear now : (
still enjoy elvenar though : )

 

[DeletedUser9591]

Some balancing is needed in the spire... I experimented this week with attempts to negotiate. Surely it does not make sense when seven (or more - cannot remember now) attempts in a row are complete failures. On many occasions not a single correct choice! I splashed probably 2-3 days resources on this attempt and still ended up without any success. It is called gambling not gaming Add an option to get nothing and it will become a proper gambling feature

Surely, in well balanced game after several attempts the player should be presented with the simplified option (considering the costs and possible rewards).

And yes... this week spire looks a bit different - negotiations are more difficult and significantly increased amount of rewards as spell fragments.

I did not notice more FS achieving top rewards either (it was communicated as the aim of the recent changes).

 

[Julian]

Has any fellowship got a gold trophy?

 

[Pauly7]

Surely it does not make sense when seven (or more - cannot remember now) attempts in a row are complete failures. On many occasions not a single correct choice!

This can happen near the top when you have 7 different options to pick from. That's the way it goes, unfortunately. Sometimes you get lucky. Sometimes you don't. It's best to cancel after the first 2 guess if you don't have much to go on.

However if there are 5 options then you should be able to get these all on the first try or two if you apply the right logic, unless you get a horrific run of luck. I would say it's uncommon to fail more than once if there are 6 options.

Has any fellowship got a gold trophy?

So far it's tended to be 2 fellowships a week getting a gold trophy on Arendyll.

 

[DeletedUser9591]

This can happen near the top when you have 7 different options to pick from. That's the way it goes, unfortunately. Sometimes you get lucky. Sometimes you don't. It's best to cancel after the first 2 guess if you don't have much to go on.

Yes, it was an attempt to negotiate with 7 options... But this week I was struggling with 6 options as well. Similar scenario, second round of negotiations and 0 or just 1 right choice - what means I must abandon negotiations at this stage. Usually I do two maps in the spire and I am good at negotiating, but this week was the worst ever...

Considering the costs, it would be fair to expect after several attempts to get a simplified version.

 

[CrazyWizard]

This can happen near the top when you have 7 different options to pick from. That's the way it goes, unfortunately. Sometimes you get lucky. Sometimes you don't. It's best to cancel after the first 2 guess if you don't have much to go on.

However if there are 5 options then you should be able to get these all on the first try or two if you apply the right logic, unless you get a horrific run of luck. I would say it's uncommon to fail more than once if there are 6 options.


So far it's tended to be 2 fellowships a week getting a gold trophy on Arendyll.

Unfortunatly they do happen, lost 32m coins solving 2 chests.
But today it was easy.

Every now and then you do get horrible runs, it's frustrating but also a part of the game.
What I liked in this case was the reduced timers, since I did het time to recover.

When times are easy I get trough the spire faster and when luck runs out I het time to recover.
I like it so far.

 

[Deleted User - 1759805]

Every now and then you do get horrible runs, it's frustrating but also a part of the game.

That's true. But sometime you get unusually good runs to counterbalance. I have negotiated the last chest (8 options) without paying for extra turns, and that happened more than once.

 

[Sir Derf]

my issue with the spire is that i keep winning unwanted spell fragments..it used to be a great way to stock up on catalysts or gain more time skips .....seriously...what am i to do with 130 000 spell fragments ???? also very few mystery chests appear now : (
still enjoy elvenar though : )

Random is as Random does.

You say few mystery chests appear now, while I just did the first four of the second level, and have three mystery chests waiting for me in the next three levels.

As to what to do with 130,000 spell fragments, well... I don;t know about you, but I'm sitting on 184k spell fragmentsbout right now around me there is a toilet paper shortage...

 

[Sir Derf]

Well, now you've done it. You've let loose the mathematical Kraken.

(Thinking as I type, don;t know where this is going 'til I get there...)

How likely is it to get at least one right in the first round of Spire negotiation, or conversely how likely to fail to get any right in the first round?

3 choices, 1 Spirit - Fail in 2/3, 66.7%
3 choices, 2 Spirits - Fail in 2/3 * 2/3 = (2/3)^2 = 4/9 = 44.4%
3 choices, 5 Spirits - Fail in (2/3)^5 = 13.2%

4 choices, 5 Spirits - Fail in (3/4)^5 = 23.7%
5 choices, 5 Spirits - Fail in (4/5)^5 = 32.8%
6 choices, 5 Spirits - Fail in (5/6)^5 = 40.2%
7 choices, 5 Spirits - Fail in (6/7)^5 = 46.3%

It's nearly 50/50 that, with 7 choices, you will completely fail to get any correct in the first round of Spire negotiations.

 

[Sir Derf]

Let's see if we can reason a second round...

First by failing each individual Spirit, you have logically eliminated 1 option for that each Spirit.
Second, you either failed by yellow (someone else wants it) or red (no one else wants it). Each red, further removes 1 option for all other Spirits.

Let's look at the 7 choice scenario. There are a total of 7^5 or 16,807 possible arrangements.

Suppose you choose 12345 and failed on all, a 46.3% chance, as worked out above. This has reduced the number of possible arrangements to 7,776.

You could have failed in all while receiving anywhere from 0-5 reds.

Easy cases first...


If you received 0 reds/5 yellows, that means that you now know that each Spirit wants one of the other 4 that you picked. There are 4^5 or 1024 arrangements. This possibility is 13.2% possible. You fail (3/4)^5 = 23.7%.

If you received 5 reds/0 yellows, each Spirit wants one of the remaining 2. There are 2^5 or 32 arrangements. This possibility is 0.4% possible. You fail (1/2)^5 = 3.1%.

 

[DeletedUser9591]

Second round, 0 right choices again, then third round means that player needs lots of success to complete the encounter. Rational approach is to walk away.

Let's not forget that there are only 3 attempts, what needs to be taken into consideration when anyone calculates probability.
If negotiations are abandoned or unsuccessful, new attempt to negotiate, everything starts from 0. Meaning that the player might lose everything they have

Often it is impossible to make a calculated decision. Somebody clearly replicated the design of online gambling website

 

[Sir Derf]

Harder cases...

If you received 1 red/4 yellows, you have identified four of the right choices, and the fifth Spirit is one of 6. There are 4^4 * 6 = 1536 (edit - this is wrong, correcting it soon, my brain hurts...) arrangements. This possibility is 19.8% possible.

But, what is the best strategy? I could ensure at least one success in this the second round by choosing one of the yellows and offering it to the other 4 Spirits. I will definitely get 1 success and 2 failures, with the fourth being a maybe. And for the fifth Spirit, I could either offer one of the other yellow, or one of the 2 so-far unguessed. But, I'm not sure if this is better long-term.

Or should you mix it with 3 of the yellows and 2 of the as-yet untested?

I suspect that you learn more information by trying the two as yet untested options. You know that at least one of those two will be red, but learning which one, or if both, I believe eliminates the most possibilities and so gives you the best long-term strategy. So, I'm going with three different yellows and both untested options.

How will this work?


Let's look at that fifth Spirit. 4 out of his 6 possibilities (1,024 out of 1556) he's a second occurrence of one of the yellows, and 1 each (256 out of 1556) that he is one of the two untested.

4 out of the 6, you will get reds for both untested, and the remaining 3 you fail in (3/4)^3 or 42.2%,


The other 2 out of 6, you will get red for one of the untested, and the remaining 4 you fail in (4/5)^4 or 41.0%.


Overall, you will fail 41.8%


0R/5Y, 13.2% likely, fail 23.7%
1R/4Y, 19.8% likely, fail 41.0%
5R/0Y, 00.4% likely, fail 03.1%

33.4% of total scenarios, 33.7% chance you'll fail the second round.