1) Throw correct info at me, and I'll gladly update the math. I was already working with the inaccurate "about 100 recipes" assumption, not having been able to quickly find a current list of recipes, let alone appearance odds.

2) Do you mean the "there are nine versions of recipe x, each asking for n of a different relic, so recipe x is 9 times more likely to appear" concept, or do you mean that there are actually some distinct individual recipes are more likely than others?

1, an idnependent outcome will alway be the same % at any given repetition

sicne tthey are idnepedent form the previous outcomes and the next one

thats the definition of an indepedent propability

Longer answer - Odds that it doesn't appear = 99/100 * 98/99 * 97/98 * 96/97 * 95/96 = 95%, therefore 5% it does appear.

thats what you wrote WHICH IS WRONG

every repetition will always be 5% or 95% if you consider the other outcome 5% to happen 95% not to happen.

2. and once more does it matter for the players that will be in the "unlucky" part of the spin?

will it make it better of more comfortable for them to know that they vhere expected never to get the recipe to begin with?

what motivation gives to players to play serious the new events or even invest money into the game to win the prizes

if they can always be in the losoign side and it is EXPECTED to happen?

so from the 23.7% of the people that will not get the recipe and they feel left out from the game how many will quit the game from disappointment especially if they also spent diamonds to be in this situation?

as i said knowing that same people will have bad luck is not comforting when you are that player. and how long a player will continue to play when they have bad luck?

how loing you will keep playign a game when in every event you where among the players that got the short stick?

3. lol i did not said 1 billion head from beginning i said get billion head somewhere down the line

completely different thing and it will happen also.

so no the number you post is wrong

that nubmer is only true to have 1 billion head on the go not have a billion head somewhere in the repettiion chain

and there is a formula to find when you will expect to get a cluster of outcomes like that

there is a reason i said 10 heads since a math done ti flip a coin as many times needed to get 10 heads in the row

and then compared his repetition to the expected repetition he was going to have to make to get 10 head in a row

and no you will not tgalk about expected outxcme

as i said that will be true only after a huge number of repetion

a 50k server with 4 times per day for 1 week

will only be million repetition which is still way too small number.

and yes mathematician use expected rate as a tool but you need to understand what that represent and what it does not represent.

all the calculations you done are showing the likelihood of a specific event to happen but since you admit there is no quarantine why you flip flop and go no guarantee lets talk about the expected outcome

saying that reveals you have not understand anything about probabilities.

and this is the hardest topci in maths where even mathematiicans get many thigns wrong is the field of masacre.

and it was the weakest of my math classes which fails into the expected ration that the majority of mathematician will suffer in probabilities.

and why you shoudl nto go with expected rate? cause it will fail you

i remember a hard drive company that you know they have a % of failure as acceptable and they do quality checks ot make sure that their line of productions iwll have that certain amoutn of products been de fective.

and quess what ahppen? because the quality check by itself is a sample size it also has a % the sample you tes to be represewntative of the line outcome the test failed for wekks and the company adfter 3 weeks r4elazied one line was defected and had a nightmare PR

with million of hard drives to replace and lawsuits for data lost from companies due to drives going bad.

and yeah they where 99% or more sure that their line was working as expected but even that tiny % sometimes will kick in and mess up you

even if that % was so little and it will take 100 of years to expect it to happen it did happen.

and when you have a random indepedent outcome what is there to say?

contact support? contact forum? what they will say to you that this is expected to happen?

its nice to preach from a psotion of having average or good luck in an event to the palyers that had bad luck that this is expected

so how long you would play a game that you end up having bad luck?

how is good policy for a company to have an event and instead people be happy for the event the have a bitter taste in their mouth form the outcome?