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Hatch & Match!

Celer et Audaxor

Dreamer
As @Stucon says, hitting a pair with only 2 choices would be 5 out of 23, roughly 22%
Assuming you miss first time you would then have a (5+5)/22 chance that your third guess matches either guess 1 or 2, and that's better odds of 45.45%
 
Jake65

Jake65

Sage
Celer et Audaxor said:
As @Stucon says, hitting a pair with only 2 choices would be 5 out of 23, roughly 22%
Assuming you miss first time you would then have a (5+5)/22 chance that your third guess matches either guess 1 or 2, and that's better odds of 45.45%
Click to expand...
We've got 4 variables and only 3 tries. I think that the odds would be low.
Admittedly stats are above my pay grade :)
 
BlueBlou

BlueBlou

Illusionist
Herodite said:
Right My Fiends you should be able to see everything and enter with all devices now! :)

Kind Regards

Herodite.
Click to expand...
? Let me check:
Date: was not posted on 1 April, so not an April Fools joke.
Is our lovely Herodite perhaps mad at us?
 
Herodite

Herodite

Forum mod extraordinaire
Elvenar Team
BlueBlou said:
? Let me check:
Date: was not posted on 1 April, so not an April Fools joke.
Is our lovely Herodite perhaps mad at us?
Click to expand...

Never! You are my Beautiful Fiends :D
 

Sir Derf

Adept
  • First Pick, 24/24, so 100% chance that you get your first item, A.
    • Second Pick, 5/23, so 21.74% chance that you get a matching second A (success).
      • Third Pick, 4/22, so 18.18% (3.95% overall) that you get a matching third A (super-success).
      • Third Pick, 18/22, so 81.81% (17.79% overall) that you get an unmatched B (but still success).
    • Second Pick, 18/22, so 78.26% chance that you get an unmatched B.
      • Third Pick, 5/22, so 22.73% (17.79% overall) that you get a matching second A (success).
      • Third Pick, 5/22, so 22.73% (17.79% overall) that you get a matching second B (success).
      • Third Pick, 12/22, so 54.55% (42.69% overall) that you get an unmatched C (failure).

So, success (find a at least a pair in 3 picks) in 3.95 + 17.79 + 17.79 + 17.79 = 57.32% vs. failure in 42.69%.


From there, the higher question is, what are my odds of winning diamonds, based on the number of participants...

To be continued...
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Hmmm, I wonder if I/we could game the system?

"Sharing the answers to the contest before the competition can lead to disqualifying you."

If people were to announce their guesses stating they are winning guesses, and if mods reacted to correct statements, could we work out winning entries based on the announcements that aren't reacted to?



I announce that there is a pair of chocolate bunnies under squares H7 and Q42.
 
Stucon

Stucon

Illusionist
Oh poop. Forgot to add the 3rd coordinate

I announce that there is a pair of chocolate bunnies under squares A7 and C4
 
m4rt1n

m4rt1n

Adept
Problem @anonglitch @Herodite when I click on the forum main page to see the competition it takes me straight to the competition entries page where I will make my entry thread, rather than the main competition page, only way I can see the competition currently is the link in the first post of this thread.
 
kimkimkim

kimkimkim

Summoner
m4rt1n said:
Problem @anonglitch @Herodite when I click on the forum main page to see the competition it takes me straight to the competition entries page where I will make my entry thread, rather than the main competition page, only way I can see the competition currently is the link in the first post of this thread.
Click to expand...
the competition is under the Hatch & Match on the right side of the community contest box
Screenshot (2).png
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Stats, stats, stats... I crave the numbers, I need the numbers...

How many entrants? How many correct guesses?
 
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