#### ANIKHTOS

##### Soothsayer

So we flip coin once what will we get?

- H 50%
- T 50%

Now we do another flip

- HH 25%
- HT 25%
- TH 25%
- TT 25%

So after 2 repetition to have a cluster of 2 of the same is 2/4 where half of them will be for head and half will be for tales.

Another flip

- HHH
- HHT
- HTH
- HTT
- THH
- THT
- TTH
- TTT

What happen now? Not to have a cluster are only 2/8 outcomes and as you can see the probability of not having a cluster of 2 in row after n repletion will be 1/(2)^(n-1)

So you see while you say the expected Head Tales you expect them to be of equal number their distribution among the repetitions will be of cluster like behavior.

Which goes to the next conclusion as the probability of a cluster of 2 happen than means the probability of a cluster of 3 will increase also.

And as you increase the repletion and the more likely the cluster of 3 it will become then you will have cluster of 4 , 5 and so on.

That’s why I said to you, you deal probabilities like a gambler and not like a mathematician. Because you go that the expected outcome will even eventually. That’s the first question a student does in the class. How much repetition we need to do to expect the ratio % to be the ratio we observe and the answer is simple. Think of a number you have not think a big enough.

Now consider this game. We want to flip a coin 10 times and if we get 10 head we will win. How many times we need to play the game to get it?. The expected value is that if you play the game 1024 times one of them could be the one you want. But that does not mean if you play the game 1024 you will get it one time, you may get it 0 times to 1024. And even if you get it 1 time you cannot for tell which turn that will be. And every time you play the game you may “win” it in a different number of attempts.

So you will do 10240 coin flips if you play the game in a predetermine set of 1024 turns and you want to see if you will win or not.

Now to save time you can say that every time you flip a tales you call the turn a failure and you move to the next turn. Now while you will make the same rounds of game 1024 you will make way fewer flips. Same game same rules you just not do the pointless flips for a fail game.

Both variants of the game will have the same 1/1024 to happen despite that one version needs or demands more coin flips.

And that’s the problem with independent probabilities , you can use conditional probabilities all you want, but in the end of the day you have to deal each repetition as a singular and independent event.

You need to be very careful what you calculate with conditional probability and what it will reflect for you. Because once more it does not matter what you calculate every single repetition will always have a 50% chance of head tales.

And to tie it up with the artifacts you said we need to look the big picture of the server?

And I said to you why? And if you where going to see th 4ebig picture why not see the recipes also for the month before with the event that will make the sample of repletion even bigger.

Also there is another big issue with your logic. While the company as company may want some rewards in a server level to be a specific amount. And then calculates the number players on server on number of attempts and number of rewards taken and they may be happy as company that the % worked perfect.

As to say in coin flips they got the 50% -50%

But if we look it into individual player I may get the reward 0 times, the other got it lets say 2 times which was the expected and another 2 got 3 times.

So if we do the average of the server the company is happy since they want to give 2 rewards per person the server had 4 players they wanted to give 8 rewards and that what we see happen.

Does it matter for the individual player if the % drop rate come true for the server? Or every player cares about his or her progress?

So you are having an event, where you are quarantined as a company to have a % of players that will win under average number of gifts and feel left out form the game. And people play the game to have fun and feeling left out; well these players will not stay for long around.

And once more yes there are games of luck, and yea many people play them. But you know from the start go that you play a game like that.

SO the company need to consider where they want to send the game, A game of pure luck or a game of skill where with some patient you progress and grow?

Advertising as a game of skill and slowly slowly turn into a game of luck is a betrayal to the players trust to the company and their time, effort and money invested on the game.

As I said I play game of luck. Like any game that has a dice is one. While you may argue that there is an element of skill in every game, the game of lucks depending how bad your luck will be can nullify any aspect of skill from you or your opponent. Some times because of the luck the game will be one way.