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Is it easier to upgrade Ancient Wonders now?

Not Impressed

Novice
This will be my final post on the forums. It is a response to Inno’s recent Discord post with the same title. Warning, it's a long one.

The recent AW changes are ridiculous. This is not an opinion but is objectively true using mathematics.

Let’s answer the question once and for good using numbers.

There are 40 wonders right now, future chapters will introduce more.

Assume we want to have all 40 and upgrade to level 35.

Throughout, I make some assumptions that could apply for strong players who are active spire, tourney and FA players, who are in a strong FS. Most players will not do this well.

If there are mistakes in the calculations feel free to correct them.

How long will it take to upgrade all AWs to level 35?

We need royal restorations, combining catalysts and spell fragments. Let’s look at them one at a time.

Part 1 – Royal Restorations (RR)

To upgrade 1 AW from level 1 to 35 need 5 + 10 + 15 + 20 + 25 + 30 + 35 = 140 RR per wonder.

There are 40 wonders total, 140 multiply 40 = 5600 RR

Assume our FS gets 10 tourney chests/week = 5 RR

Assume we’re prepared to sell enough special buildings (DA, Genie, etc) to get 3 more RR/week.

So we can get 8RR/week

5600/8 = 700 weeks to get 5600 RR

52 weeks per year so 700/52 = about 13.5 YEARS. That puts us into 2037. Hmm, seems like a long time to still be playing?? It gets worse….

Part 2 – Combining Catalysts (CC)

To upgrade 1 AW from level 1 to 35 need 1 + 2 + 3 + … + 34 + 35 CC = 630 CC

For all 40 AWs we need 630 multiply 40 = 25200 CC. How long will it take us to get them?

Assume Magic Academy is level 5, so 1 CC per 6 hours. This means 4 CC/day.

Assume we have 1 Moonstone Library set, 1 Steam Golem Level 10, 1 Potionmaker Pedestal Level 5 for 3 extra CC/day

Total = 7 CC/day

Assume you complete Spire Gateway and High Halls weekly. For argument’s sake you might win 9 more CC, sometimes more, sometimes less. Assume you get 3 more CC/week by selling culture buildings.

7 + 3 + 9 = 19 CC/week. Let’s be generous and assume 20 CC/week.

To get 25200 CC we need 25200/20 = 1260 weeks.

That is, just over 24 YEARS. It’s now 2048 and we’ve only just upgraded our wonders for chapters 1 to 35. I will be old, some of you are, shall we say, no longer gaming, but it still gets worse. You still won’t have upgraded your wonders, because of spell fragments.

Part 3 – Spell Fragments (SF)

1000 SF are needed for each upgrade level, so to upgrade 1 AW from 1 to 35, we need 1000 + 2000 + 3000 + … + 34000 + 35000 = 630000 SF.

For all 40 AW, 630000(40) = 25200000 SF. Yes, that is 25.5 MILLION ladies and gentlemen.

How long will it take to get this ridiculous amount?

Let’s assume we disenchant ALL our artifacts from ALL future events (is anyone really going to?), and that is 9 artifacts per event for a strong player.

About 10 events per year so 90 artifacts per year. Disenchanting 1 artifact = 1750 SF

So 1750 90 = 157500 SF/year from disenchanting

Forget disenchanting culture buildings, we need them all to sell for CC and RR. It is peanuts anyway, only 740 for a copper dragon and less for others.

Assume we can win 3000 SF in the spire per week, so another 156000 SF/year

Total SF in a year is 157500 + 156000 = 313500 SF per year

Woohoo, sounds a lot doesn’t it? But it’s nowhere near enough!

To get 25200000 SF would take 25200000/313500 = just over 80 YEARS!!!

The year is now 2104 ladies and gentlemen, and we are all dead. Inno probably went bankrupt decades ago, and no one has ever heard of Elvenar any more. Maybe all browser games are relics from the past by now, seen only in gaming museums.

Final answer

It will take 80 years to upgrade all 40 AWs from level 1 through 35 assuming you play well, are in a strong FS, play all events and FA only to win and disenchant all artifacts for SF, and can live that long.

And for players who only want to have half the ancient wonders? You need 40 years to spare.

Is it easier to upgrade ancient wonders now? No, it is totally impossible. Anyone can see that 80 years is an utterly unreasonable timescale. Nothing Inno can say in response changes anything. They are trying to defend the indefensible. The numbers speak for themselves. Do you want to upgrade your AWs, or even just half of them? Sorry, you are just never going to be able to, no matter how hard you try or how good you are at Elvenar. With this, I take my leave of you.
 
SkyRider99

SkyRider99

Mentor
Nice posting @Not Impressed. I'd like to read more, but fully understand your desire to exit the sinking ship that the forum (game?) is becoming.

Not Impressed said:
The year is now 2104 ladies and gentlemen, and we are all dead. Inno probably went bankrupt decades ago, and no one has ever heard of Elvenar any more. Maybe all browser games are relics from the past by now, seen only in gaming museums.
Click to expand...
Puts it all into perspective really. :cool:
 
SkyRider99

SkyRider99

Mentor
Elfclaw the Mighty said:
now a miserable struggle for most
Click to expand...
Ohh. We used to dream of miserable struggle. We had it tough.

1707017656545.png
 
McBratty

McBratty

Enchanter
Outstanding post that truly puts it all into perspective. Ive been constantly trying to be positive about all this and jolly my Fellowship along but how can I possibly do that after reading this? Its a real reality check and one that I hope Inno read ( with understanding) and finally accept they have truly upset players and need to rectify pronto. Im gutted.
 
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sail0r

sail0r

Spellcaster
Not Impressed said:
If there are mistakes in the calculations feel free to correct them.
Click to expand...
Nice analysis @Not Impressed , however a bit pessimistic in my opinion. I will study 3 cases:
1. Low level player: Reaching the 1st floor in the spire, doing 3-star x 10 provinces in tournaments, in a FS that gets maybe 7 chests in tournaments
2. Average player: Reaching the 2nd floor in the spire, doing 6-star x 15 provinces in tournaments, in a FS that gets 11 chests in tournaments
3. Good player: Reaching top in the spire, doing 6-star x 25 provinces in tournaments, in a FS that gets 16 chests in tournaments

Further, although it's interesting to calculate how much time you need to upgrade all 40 wonders to level 35, I will study a more realistic example: How much time you need to upgrade 25 wonders to level 31. So each wonder needs the following to get to level 31: 135 RR's, 495 CC's and 495,000 spell fragments. So for our 25 wonders we need a total of: 3,375 RR's, 12,375 CC's and 12,375,000 spell fragments.

In the spire the expected Spell fragments rewards are calculated as "Spell fragments to be won" x probability. So based on that, the expected winnings of Spell fragments are:
Reach 1st floor: 5100, reach 2nd floor: 10200, reach top: 15100

1. Royal Restorations (RR's):
a. Low level player: 3 from tournaments plus 3 from selling buildings: 6 RR's/week = 312/year : needs 11 years for the 25 wonders
b. Average player: 5 from tournies plus 5 from selling buildings: 10 RR's/week = 520/year : Needs 6.5 years for the 25 wonders
c. Good player: 11 from tournies plus 7 from selling buildings: 18 RR's/week = 936/year : Needs 3.6 years for the 25 wonders

2. Combining Catalysts (CC's):
a. Low level player (no Tinlug): 7/week from Moonstone library, 7/week from other event building, 3 from spire plus 3 from magic chests, 21 from MA: total 41/week = 2,135/year : needs 6 years for the 25 wonders
b1. Average player (no Tinlug): 7/week from Moonstone library, 14/week from other event building, 6 from spire plus 6 from magic chests, 21 from MA: total 54/week = 2,808/year : needs 4.5 years for the 25 wonders
b2. Average player (Tinlug lvl 10): 7/week from Moonstone library, 14/week from other event building, 6 from spire plus 6 from magic chests, 21 from MA, 18 from Tinlug: total 72/week = 3,744/year : needs 3.3 years for the 25 wonders
c. Good player (Tinlug lvl 10): 7/week from Moonstone library, 14/week from other event building, 9 from spire plus 6 from magic chests, 21 from MA, 30 from Tinlug: total 87/week = 4,524/year : needs 2.7 years for the 25 wonders

3. Spell fragments:
a. Low level player: 3,675/week from Moonstone library, 5,100 from spire: total 8,775/week = 456,300/year plus from disenchanting artifacts and buildings maybe 100,000/year: Total 556,300/year : needs 22 years for the 25 wonders
b. Average player: 3,675/week from Moonstone library, 10,500 from spire: total 14,175/week = 737,100/year plus from disenchanting artifacts and buildings maybe 200,000/year: Total 937,100/year : needs 13 years for the 25 wonders
c. Good player: 3,675/week from Moonstone library, 15,100 from spire: total 18,775/week = 976,300/year plus from disenchanting artifacts and buildings maybe 300,000/year: Total 1,276,300/year : needs 10 years for the 25 wonders

Conclusion:
In my opinion, wanting to have 25 wonders at level 31 is a realistic target and it should not take longer than 5-6 years to reach that.
The real problem is spell fragments. Inno will have to half the demand for spell fragments in AW upgrades or double the amount that can be gained, so that this goal can be reached in app. 5-6 years.
 

owl76

Bard
sail0r said:
The real problem is spell fragments. Inno will have to half the demand for spell fragments in AW upgrades or double the amount that can be gained, so that this goal can be reached in app. 5-6 years.
Click to expand...
This also highlights a long standing annoyance, which is now significantly worse. Those who got multiple moonstone sets, from before the 1 set limitation, will now be getting the 3675/week for each set. Ten sets is approximately 1.9 million spell fragments a year!
 
Laurelin

Laurelin

Sorcerer
Excellent analyses; many thanks to the authors.
... but what about Crafting, and all of its dependencies, too...?
Apparently now a luxury, only to fulfil inevitable Quest demands :(
 
Jake65

Jake65

Sage
Laurelin said:
Excellent analyses; many thanks to the authors.
... but what about Crafting, and all of its dependencies, too...?
Apparently now a luxury, only to fulfil inevitable Quest demands :(
Click to expand...
The numbers are really out of whack. To upgrade my Sanctuary to level32 will use the same amount of spell fragments as crafting 53 Unleashed Unit Upgrades.

Edit to clarify: this is from level 31 to 32. So a years worth of UUU for one level of an AW. Humph!
 
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Hekata

Hekata

Artisan
@sail0r great analysis and in line with what a lot of players, including mods, have been saying on Discord: that the biggest problem to upgrading AW are going to be SF.

Not sure if you've seen this in the news from Beta thread. Not the bet solution but that should help somewhat at east advanced players who have already the means to get CCs from a lot of sources.

The one thing that both you and @Not Impressed have omitted to mention though, and that makes the whole process of upgrading the AWs even longer than your estimate, is that those same resources are needed for crafting or upgrading good event buildings.

Edit: I see that @Laurelin and @Jake65 have also mentioned the issue of crafting, my bad, I should have read the whole thread first :D
 
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