Dawn of the Phoenix

[SkyRider99]

Actually, I felt I was more being 'that guy' in a world where Math is not everyone's primary language. Especially when you clarify that you were intentionally trying for feathers, it sounds like you had a a really bad run of RNG luck, which is kinda independent of the odds.

Cheers @Sir Derf. That was how I read your posting too. Not as a subtlety of the English language, but as a technical distinction between perceived luck and the actual mathematical probabilities. I am happy to read your dissertations.

 

[Silly Bubbles]

Cheers @Sir Derf. That was how I read your posting too. Not as a subtlety of the English language, but as a technical distinction between perceived luck and the actual mathematical probabilities. I am happy to read your dissertations.

I'm happy to read anything that makes sense and/or is useful.

 

[Silly Bubbles]

We really need a strategy that maximises luck. Winning a lot of extra sky essence can make up for everything and get both daily prizes and main prize.

So I got bored and this is what I came up with. Be free to correct or adjust, I haven't fully checked it as I do have other things to do too.

These are chests that have the highest chance of winning additional sky essence:

Chest​	Free SE​	Free SE %​	Average​
65​	50​	28.00%​	14.00​
112​	100​	22.00%​	22.00​
33​	20​	20.00%​	4.00​
77​	150​	10.00%​	15.00​
36​	100​	10.00%​	10.00​
61​	100​	8.00%​	8.00​
129​	500​	5.00%​	25.00​
46​	​	​	0.00​
26​	​	​	0.00​

These are chests that have the highest odds of the highest payout. Riskier than the above but higher chance of higher payout:

Chest​	Free SE​	Free SE %​	Average​
129​	500​	5.00%​	25.00​
112​	100​	22.00%​	22.00​
77​	150​	10.00%​	15.00​
65​	50​	28.00%​	14.00​
36​	100​	10.00%​	10.00​
61​	100​	8.00%​	8.00​
33​	20​	20.00%​	4.00​
46​	​	​	0.00​
26​	​	​	0.00​

 

[Sir Derf]

1) Your numbers, while correct, are half-order computations. You are computing the Sky Essence payoffs from the chests, but Sky Essence is the currency of the event, not the end-point of the event. Ultimately, you are trying to get either Grand Prizes from feathers or Daily Prizes. Yes, added Sky Essence correlates with added Grand or Daily Prizes, but first- and second-order computations reveal different percentages and different ranked orders than the above. Many others regularly compute these listings - for example look to @Jackluyt 's post usually within the first three of the thread for an event.

2) As I've demonstrated for particular offerings in earlier threads, but for which no one to my knowledge has computed a full breakdown, the proper computation for maximal performance should be done based on picking the best chest from every three-chest offering considering the opportunity cost from each offering.

 

[Killiak]

Actually, I felt I was more being 'that guy' in a world where Math is not everyone's primary language. Especially when you clarify that you were intentionally trying for feathers, it sounds like you had a a really bad run of RNG luck, which is kinda independent of the odds.

Being 'that guy' is not a compliment.

 

[strider-lauri]

I have a question: how on earth can I keep my silver level, when they locked quest line so early and I can do only one quest per day? Before locking I was almost gold, now I'm only one point better than bornze. Seriously it's not fair for players, who doesn't want waste real money for all of this!

 

[Killiak]

I have a question: how on earth can I keep my silver level, when they locked quest line so early and I can do only one quest per day? Before locking I was almost gold, now I'm only one point better than bornze. Seriously it's not fair for players, who doesn't want waste real money for all of this!

1) Spend money or be super lucky (a.k.a. get a lot of shard returns from chests)
2) Fair? It never has been, it never will be. Pay2Win has always been part of Elvenar, even before it went mobile. Sorry.

 

[Silly Bubbles]

1) Your numbers, while correct, are half-order computations. You are computing the Sky Essence payoffs from the chests, but Sky Essence is the currency of the event, not the end-point of the event. Ultimately, you are trying to get either Grand Prizes from feathers or Daily Prizes. Yes, added Sky Essence correlates with added Grand or Daily Prizes, but first- and second-order computations reveal different percentages and different ranked orders than the above. Many others regularly compute these listings - for example look to @Jackluyt 's post usually within the first three of the thread for an event.

2) As I've demonstrated for particular offerings in earlier threads, but for which no one to my knowledge has computed a full breakdown, the proper computation for maximal performance should be done based on picking the best chest from every three-chest offering considering the opportunity cost from each offering.

More sky essence = more feathers = more daily prizes = more artifacts. As much as the traditional calculation is very detailed, statistics can only estimate the future not predict it. Going into more detail into something that is not exact will not make it more accurate.

For example, based on my current sky essence (2054) I got another two artifacts nearly guaranteed using average of 30 sky essence per feather not including any extra sky essence from possible wins. This is a very conservative calculation so the chances are nearly 100%. But I want more than that. Using the chests that I listed will give me the best chances of getting many more feathers on top of the two additional artifacts.
Based on Jack's calculation, the average is 25 sky essence per feather (not guaranteed as it's based on winning extra sky essence). Unfortunately, this is an arbitrary number as we all win different amounts of sky essence. And as much as I'd like to use it, it will only give me arbitrary result.

So really it comes down to whether you want to rely on statistical numbers that might give you what they're telling you (usually average result as they're based on averages) or whether you'll go for the highest possible gain and give yourself a chance of winning big. In my situation, I have nothing to lose but a lot to gain using the chests above.

 

[Sir Derf]

Leagues are a weightlifting competition, not a track race.

Those who lift the most get the greatest rewards, regardless of if you post your score first, in the middle of the pack, or last. Finishing first is not the point.

Having the best score half-way through the competition does not mean you will get the gold medal or place Gold League, when there is still half a roster who have yet

More practically...

League standing is based on Feather collecting, otherwise known as maximizing Grand Prize odds. The best way to obtain (and keep) a given League is to collect the most Feathers. This can best be achieved by (in increasing order of importance):

• Gaining as much Sky Essence as possible, which is under your control
  • Compete all the quests (regardless of how long it takes)
  • Collect all the litter (check at least every 3 hours, even during the night. Don't let more than 5 pieces of litter accumulate)
  • Buy the Event Building that improves Sky Essence
  • Receive the e-mail
  • Enter any competitions on FB or the like
• Spend Sky Essence wisely on a mathematically sound strategy to maximize Sky Essence to Feather conversion, which is under your control
• Get lucky RNG outcomes, which can overshadow the earlier points, but since it is out of your control, you can't count on
• Buy additional Sky Essence, which is also under your control, and can overshadow all earlier points.

 

[Sir Derf]

More sky essence = more feathers = more daily prizes = more artifacts. As much as the traditional calculation is very detailed, statistics can only estimate the future not predict it. Going into more detail into something that is not exact will not make it more accurate.

For example, based on my current sky essence (2054) I got another two artifacts nearly guaranteed using average of 30 sky essence per feather not including any extra sky essence from possible wins. This is a very conservative calculation so the chances are nearly 100%. But I want more than that. Using the chests that I listed will give me the best chances of getting many more feathers on top of the two additional artifacts.
Based on Jack's calculation, the average is 25 sky essence per feather (not guaranteed as it's based on winning extra sky essence). Unfortunately, this is an arbitrary number as we all win different amounts of sky essence. And as much as I'd like to use it, it will only give me arbitrary result.

So really it comes down to whether you want to rely on statistical numbers that might give you what they're telling you (usually average result as they're based on averages) or whether you'll go for the highest possible gain and give yourself a chance of winning big. In my situation, I have nothing to lose but a lot to gain using the chests above.

@Silly Bubbles , longer reply later, but you are wrong.

 

[Jake65]

Leagues are a weightlifting competition, not a track race.

Those who lift the most get the greatest rewards, regardless of if you post your score first, in the middle of the pack, or last. Finishing first is not the point.

Having the best score half-way through the competition does not mean you will get the gold medal or place Gold League, when there is still half a roster who have yet

More practically...

League standing is based on Feather collecting, otherwise known as maximizing Grand Prize odds. The best way to obtain (and keep) a given League is to collect the most Feathers. This can best be achieved by (in increasing order of importance):

• Gaining as much Sky Essence as possible, which is under your control
  • Compete all the quests (regardless of how long it takes)
  • Collect all the litter (check at least every 3 hours, even during the night. Don't let more than 5 pieces of litter accumulate)
  • Buy the Event Building that improves Sky Essence
  • Receive the e-mail
  • Enter any competitions on FB or the like
• Spend Sky Essence wisely on a mathematically sound strategy to maximize Sky Essence to Feather conversion, which is under your control
• Get lucky RNG outcomes, which can overshadow the earlier points, but since it is out of your control, you can't count on
• Buy additional Sky Essence, which is also under your control, and can overshadow all earlier points.

and feed the Ashen (?) Phoenix. That's worth about a hundred feathers extra.

 

[CrazyWizard]

Using the same priority numbers in selecting chests, one city has only hit sky essence in the chests once while the other city hit sky essence 4x in a row. Yay, totally at mercy of RNG gods...

yup a single event is kinda random, this time the RNG gods are agains me as well.

But when you look over many event there will be lucky and unlucky events. in the end it about average.
But for this event I am absolutely screwed.

Just like the spire. I got 5 witch hats on my large account, I cannot do anything with them.
I need 4 witch hats on small city, havent seen one yet, and with bad luck I might not see 4 comming 5 weeks either.

But I have seen plenty aretacte on my mini, the timing is just wrong.

 

[SkyRider99]

@Silly Bubbles , longer reply later, but you are wrong.

No one likes to be wrong. But we are all capable of being mistaken or incorrect from time to time.

 

[Pauly7]

Receive the e-mail

Chance would be a fine thing!

 

[Pauly7]

and feed the Ashen (?) Phoenix. That's worth about a hundred feathers extra

Or buy the outpost building. Do they still do those?

 

[Herodite]

Or buy the outpost building. Do they still do those?

They do! It normally appears within a day or two of the event starting...

 

[Pauly7]

They do! It normally appears within a day or two of the event starting...

For a moment I thought you were replying with good news to my customary quip about not getting the newsletter!

 

[kimkimkim]

WARNING: Rant coming

OK, whose brainy idea was it to make today's prize rune shards......I mean really, are they running out of ideas on what prizes to give? Anddd if this is gonna be a regular thing, then I STRONGLY suggest they give rune shards for wonders that have been unlocked......SMH

 

[Pauly7]

WARNING: Rant coming

OK, whose brainy idea was it to make today's prize rune shards......I mean really, are they running out of ideas on what prizes to give? Anddd if this is gonna be a regular thing, then I STRONGLY suggest they give rune shards for wonders that have been unlocked......SMH

Surely now, though, this prize is 30KP. Not bad, and better than the KP prizes.

 

[kimkimkim]

Surely now, though, this prize is 30KP. Not bad, and better than the KP prizes.

great, if it was a rune that is popular and most people have....but really the spire library, not too many people have that open and didn't bother to build it ....if that was their thinking then really, why just not make it a 30kp instant