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Winter Magic

Sir Derf

Adept
I don't think the combined effect of the double (which only helps if you get it just before the daily) and the spy (which has a small boost showing to nothings, a big boost showing you the shuffle, and a really big boost if showing you the prize and either the double or the shuffle) will overall double your payout.

I think this means that the overall present odds for a daily are significantly lower than that for past chests.
Next thought, how to translate that into the game currency...

I think my brain needs to rest a little first...
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Using a chest calculator looking at the Zodiac event, optimizing for daily prizes, it was about 290 currency to open about 10.3 chests per daily prize.


Wait, that's worse than my estimate for the old system. :) And that's including compound interest. And I know in the past I independently verified the chest calculator computations, at least for dailies. Huh, I must have done something wrong earlier...


10.3 chests/daily, including compound interest, versus 11.58 presents/daily, not including compound interest, spy or double...


Well, this event costs 50 Ribbons per present, my estimate of 11.58 presents means an estimated cost of 579 ribbons/daily, very nearly double the cost from the Zodiac event.
 

Julian

Sorcerer
I don't know the odds, but you can still get multiple daily prizes. I saved up around 1000 ribbons and spent them today to get 4 logistics centres (and I never hit the double)
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Yes, you can, I'm not saying you can't. Keep opening presents. With your 1000 ribbons, that would be about 20 presents, not counting ribbon paybacks, wchih by my math means you averaged ahead of the game. Congrats.
 

DeletedUser8632

Guest
I don't know the odds, but you can still get multiple daily prizes. I saved up around 1000 ribbons and spent them today to get 4 logistics centres (and I never hit the double)

I managed to get 1200 ribbons on day 1. I also got several 2x and a ton of extra ribbons - enough to to get 2 artifacts. Daily Prizes won: 0

I did win 8 Shuffles, though. Yay! me.
 

Deleted User - 1759805

Guest
Well, this event costs 50 Ribbons per present, my estimate of 11.58 presents means an estimated cost of 579 ribbons/daily, very nearly double the cost from the Zodiac event.
Not too shabby for an analytical approach ;) My full simulation (assuming it is correct) shows up 550 ribbons per daily, including all the features (like ribbon presents, x2 etc). The only thing not accounted in this number is reveals. Which are difficult to automate, and I don't think they would have a material difference. But with reveal the number would be slightly lower still.

So your number seem to be pretty much bang on.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
By the way, and I don't think I've seen anyone explicitly pointing this out, but there is a goodly amount of Pet Food to be gotten from the presents this event...
 

DeletedUser8632

Guest
I managed to get 1200 ribbons on day 1. I also got several 2x and a ton of extra ribbons - enough to to get 2 artifacts. Daily Prizes won: 0
Not too shabby for an analytical approach ;) My full simulation (assuming it is correct) shows up 550 ribbons per daily, including all the features (like ribbon presents, x2 etc). The only thing not accounted in this number is reveals. Which are difficult to automate, and I don't think they would have a material difference. But with reveal the number would be slightly lower still.

So your number seem to be pretty much bang on.

Seconded with the same restriction ("reveal" is a b*tch to theorise, your simulating approach is much better)
 

DeletedUser8632

Guest
By the way, and I don't think I've seen anyone explicitly pointing this out, but there is a goodly amount of Pet Food to be gotten from the presents this event...

Don't go there. Simply because a) there is also a goodly amount of rubbish to be gotten from the presents and b) this is entirely irrelevant for players like me who do not want to spend 240 Euro to get a Fire Phoenix.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Just pointing out the silver linings in the dark storm clouds.

But not so rubbish to those who already have a Fire Phoenix. A common gripe on the boards is the low availability of Pet Food for those who want to keep their pets well fed.
 

DeletedUser8632

Guest
Just pointing out the silver linings in the dark storm clouds.

But not so rubbish to those who already have a Fire Phoenix. A common gripe on the boards is the low availability of Pet Food for those who want to keep their pets well fed.

Don't mind me, I'm grumpy today :)
 

Pauly7

Magus
I'm still not 100% sure how I feel about this event. What I do know, primarily, is that I don't care about it. This means I'm not feeling any of the anger and frustration of some because I don't really want anything out of it. The reasons - well, as I said before I think there's very rarely been any Winter prize that doesn't go against all my city building principles. The Gingerbread Mansion is the biggest example of this. Even if it was spewing out 500 diamonds a day I wouldn't build it. It belongs in Mickey Mouse's Christmas Carol, but not in my city.

If it weren't for the above then judging from popular opinion I would probably be shouting about the same things. It's a pity, though, because Inno also did a handful of things for this event that were directly implementing previous suggestions on the forum. Now that they are all lost in the discussion about all the other issues (and I'm not saying that's wrong) then that will likely halt any progress we might have made... or they might have made.

I'm not sure if this has been said before, but I'll just throw it in there as I'm all about aesthetics - The Winter Magic window that pops up where you choose prizes / hit bricks / whatever, gets me a little riled every time I open it because it looks like it's some sort of pre-school age silly app. This doesn't help my mood about out of place comedic Winter buildings.
 

Timneh

Artisan
I'm done with this event. My last 12 quests have been buy 10 kp 4 times, get supplies 6 times, do 3 neighbourly help visits 1 time and get goods 1 time. That for me is not fun especially when the get supplies quests come back to back but with different wording to describe them.
 

m4rt1n

Adept
No repeat quests...
Ok lets rename 5 or 6 of the same quest with a slight difference, it doesn't stop me having to make supplies 10x in a row today, then back to the goods alternatives.

[sarcasm]What next, buy 10kp using only gold, supplies, T1, T2, T3, diamonds? [/sarcasm]
6 different quests there, when does this joke of not repeating end.
 

LazyTony

Sorcerer
This has to be the first event where adding event currency to the mystical object makes it a worse bet than before, and I would rather wait 3 weeks till the event is over to open it.......
 

IronOrchid

Seeker
it might make this new lotto/scratch card style event more worth the effort if other than just total crap behind the boxes there was perhaps some older set buildings so you can have a chance to upgrade them or collect the missing ones from your beloved sets! I mean these days when you have an advent calendar every door is a winner. not so in Elvenar
 
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