Discussion Winter Magic 2020

[Twigjam]

Three chests is still gambling.

I didn't say it wasn't gambling; I said ' With the three chest system there was an element of chance but I had a large element of control also.' I could see exactly what was in the chests and a percentage chance of getting what I wanted. It was nowhere near as hit and miss as shuffle boards.

 

[Julian]

I’ve noticed that the postal keys appearing around the city is a bit haphazard. I got 6 keys this morning after 12hours overnight (even after reloading).The Halloween event had them each hour, events before had 2 per hour. Has anyone else noticed this? I’m playing on an iPhone11.

All events max out at 6 of the given currency available to collect around the city.

 

[Lelanya]

Let us hope that changes regarding the crafting aspect for you. Unfortunately as battle is an integral part of the game, there is no work around or that.

Yup!!

 

[DopeyDoc]

It may be that I may just have to accept that I can't play this event in this particular city, but I just wanted to point this out. Quest No. 9 asks me to "fight and win 3 encounters or use 1 pet food". Simple enough for most, but if you have a new city that doesn't have a barracks or troops, because is deciding to play as catering only - then there isn't any practical way to get through this quest.

This ...

Just watched yet another set of crafting choices tick over with no sign of pet food for well over 24 hours ... and even if it appears, all I'll do is promptly disenchant it as soon as it's cooked. Devs, if you were actively looking for ways to demotivate players, you did well. Pat yourseves on the back!

And no, I haven't placed my new Winter Owl either, as I can't justify giving it space for the unexciting benefits it brings. This while playing in Chapter 4 ...

 

[DeletedUser9898]

All events max out at 6 of the given currency available to collect around the city.

This isn’t correct I’m afraid, I’ve just picked up 8 after 12 hours break. As I said it’s haphazard!

 

[Pauly7]

This isn’t correct I’m afraid, I’ve just picked up 8 after 12 hours break. As I said it’s haphazard!

It should always be 6, unless something is wrong. You may pick up more than 6 currency total, but there are 6 separate pick ups maximum at one time.

Interestingly, after the 6 they will still keep appearing every hour at various locations, but the oldest one disappears every time a new one appears.

As for frequency - Well we know it does occasionally change. There are times when they have appeared much faster. About one every 20 minutes was the most I've seen. It still only allows 6 to be sat there at once though.

 

[DeletedUser9898]

Ah I see now, 6 pickups as opposed to 6 keys! My apologies to Julian then, as it seems he was right after all, my understanding was off! Thanks for making it clearer Pauly!

 

[Sir Derf]

Postal Box Strategies

Guaranteed Doubling strategy - saving your Reveal and Double powers for guaranteed payoffs only.

• Find the Daily in box 1-13, 1-13 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to reshuffle, 1 per 70-370 keys
• Use the Reveal and Double, 14 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to reshuffle, 2 per 395 keys

There is a 3/16 * 3/16 chance that you will go unfulfilled in the first 13 boxes twice in a row, and not have the reveal or double available the second time, and will go 1 per 395 1/3 or 1 per 400 2/3 of the time.


Worst case would be finding the Daily on the 13th box, over and over, so 1 Daily per 370 keys.

Over all odds are about

1/16 * ( (70+95+120+...+370) + 1/2*(395+395+395)*13/16 + (395+400+400)*3/16 ) =

1/16 * ( 1 * 2,860 + 1/2 * 1,185 * 13/16 + 1 * 1,195 * 3/16) =

1/16 * (2,860 + 592.5 * 13/16 + 1,195 * 3/16) =

1/16 * (2,860 + 481.40625 + 224.0625)

1/16 * (3565.46875)

1 Daily per 223 keys

 

[Sir Derf]

Postal Box Strategies

No specials. Intelligent Reshuffle only.

• Find the Daily in box 1-14, 1-14 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to shuffle, 1 per 70-395 keys
• Find the Daily in box 15, 15 boxes * 25 keys, open 16th box for automatic reshuffle, 1 per 400 keys
• Find the Daily in box 16, 16 boxes * 25 keys, automatic reshuffle, 1 per 400 keys

Worst case, finding the Daily on the 15th or 16th box, so 1 Daily per 400 keys.

Over all odds are

1/16 * (70+95+120+...+395+400+400) =

1/16 * 4,055 =

1 Daily per 253 keys

 

[Sir Derf]

Postal Box Strategies

Use specials speculatively after 8 boxes (I picked 8 randomly, no special reason why).

• Find the Daily in 1-8 boxes, 1-8 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to reshuffle, 1 per 70-245 keys.
• Use the Reveal, find the Daily, use the Double, 9 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to reshuffle, 2 per 270 keys.
• Use the Reveal, don't find the Daily, use the Double, find the Daily, 9 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to reshuffle, 2 per 270 keys.
• Use the Reveal, don't find the Daily, use the Double, don't find the Daily, 10-14 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to reshuffle, 1 per 295-395 keys

Worst case, find the Daily on the 14th box, 395 keys.

Over all odds are

1/16 * ( (70+95+120+...+245) + 1/2 * (270+270+270) + (295+320+345+370+395) ) =

1/16 * ( 1,260 + 1/2 * 810 + 1,725)

1/16 * (1,260 + 455 + 1,725)

1/16 * 3,440

1 Daily per 215 keys


(Not reliably repeatable, as you can't regenerate the specials to use them every 9 boxes.)

 

[Sir Derf]

Postal Box Strategies

Luckily Optimized Guaranteed Doubling strategy - saving your Reveal and Double powers for guaranteed payoffs only.

• Find the Daily in box 1-13, 1-13 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to reshuffle, 1 per 70-370 keys
• Use the Reveal and Double, 14 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to reshuffle, 2 per 395 keys

Let's just assume that you always regenerate the specials in time for the occasions you get down to 14 boxes.

Worst case would be finding the Daily on the 13th box, over and over, so 1 Daily per 370 keys.

Over all odds are about

1/16 * ( (70+95+120+...+370) + 1/2*(395+395+395) ) =

1/16 * ( 1 * 2,860 + 1/2 * 1,185) =

1/16 * (2,860 + 592.5) =

1/16 * (3452.5)

1 Daily per 216 keys

 

[Sir Derf]

Postal Box Strategies

Luckily Optimized Near Guaranteed Doubling strategy, use the specials after 12 boxes

• Find the Daily in box 1-12, 1-12 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to reshuffle, 1 per 70-345 keys
• Use the Reveal, find the Daily, use the Double, 13 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to reshuffle, 2 per 370 keys.
• Use the Reveal, don't find the Daily, use the Double, find the Daily, 13 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to reshuffle, 2 per 370 keys.
• Use the Reveal, don't find the Daily, use the Double, don't find the Daily, 14 boxes * 25 keys, 45 keys to reshuffle, 1 per 395 keys

Let's just assume that you always regenerate the specials in time for the occasions you get down to 13 boxes.

Worst case would be finding the Daily on the 14th box, over and over, so 1 Daily per 395 keys.

Over all odds are about

1/16 * ( (70+95+120+...+345) + 1/2*(370+370+370) + 395 ) =

1/16 * ( 2,490 + 1/2 * 1,110 + 395) =

1/16 * (2,490 + 555 + 395) =

1/16 * (3,440)

1 Daily per 215 keys

 

[Joemork]

Let us hope that changes regarding the crafting aspect for you. Unfortunately as battle is an integral part of the game, there is no work around or that.

I am a little surprised by this comment...as far as I know, we have always had a choice, be it in tourney, spire or events. I sincerely hope that Inno is not about to go down the road of forcing players to fight, there are many players who have no interest in fighting, either because they do not want to fight (for whatever reason) or they prefer to cater.

 

[cwgiii]

I am a little surprised by this comment...as far as I know, we have always had a choice, be it in tourney, spire or events. I sincerely hope that Inno is not about to go down the road of forcing players to fight, there are many players who have no interest in fighting, either because they do not want to fight (for whatever reason) or they prefer to cater.

+1 Strongly agree with this statement.

 

[Pauly7]

I am a little surprised by this comment...as far as I know, we have always had a choice, be it in tourney, spire or events. I sincerely hope that Inno is not about to go down the road of forcing players to fight, there are many players who have no interest in fighting, either because they do not want to fight (for whatever reason) or they prefer to cater.

+1 Strongly agree with this statement.

I concur

 

[Lelanya]

Yes, the issue of choice, in this matter, has always been present in Elvenar, and now it seems it is being removed. I gamed with many folks in the first year, who would be sorely disappointed, although not overly surprised, to read this statement.
It seems though, that those who are building an adapted city, will need to include at least the basic set of military buildings, and yeah. I could see that from the developer's point of view. The basic buildings are always going to be needed to be included in the overall set. Your element of choice comes in whether or not you mean to build more than one armory, or the other military barracks.

 

[Pauly7]

It seems though, that those who are building an adapted city, will need to include at least the basic set of military buildings, and yeah. I could see that from the developer's point of view. The basic buildings are always going to be needed to be included in the overall set. Your element of choice comes in whether or not you mean to build more than one armory, or the other military barracks.

In a pure catering city it's unnecessary space wastage to build the barracks in the first place. For those willing to press ahead, perhaps Inno is going to take events off the table for them, though that wouldn't be advisable for them because that's part of their revenue stream gone. Luckily we have a workaround for the immediate problem, involving disechanting petfood, but the hard stop would be if they put in a quest that asked for encounters to be fought and won with no other option. Even among fighters, though, there are sometimes situations where encounters can't be practically fought and won.

 

[Deleted User - 1759805]

Use specials speculatively after 8 boxes (I picked 8 randomly, no special reason why).

You may want to run the calculation for different trigger numbers rather than just 8, and see which one minimizes the expected cost.

 

[Sir Derf]

Did the math as I typed along, and the engineering itch that passes for computational OCD didn't trigger enough to be complete.

 

[Sir Derf]

Just went back to the thread of the previous Winter Magic, which had the Shuffle Board with the embedded Reveal, Double and Reshuffle, and found the following

Well, this event costs 50 Ribbons per present, my estimate of 11.58 presents means an estimated cost of 579 ribbons/daily, very nearly double the cost from the Zodiac event.

Here, the cost per present is half, all gifts have rewards, and early reshuffle costs.

Utilizing Intelligent Reshuffle Strategy, with an average cost of 253 keys/daily, this event is 228% as good at daily payoff compared to the previous Shuffleboard outing. Better strategies at about 215 keys/daily make it nearly 270%.

215 keys/daily means an average of about 7 presents/daily, where the previous shuffleboard 579 ribbons/daily meant about 11.5 presents/daily.


I wonder if Shuffleboard haters have given this version a proper consideration?