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What are the odds Spire Negotiation Failure

Sir Derf

Adept
5 Spirits, 5 goods.

Offer 1 - abcde - all failed, but wanted
Offer 2 - bcdea - all failed, but wanted
Offer 3 - cdeab - all failed, but wanted.

Huh - a perfect fail. What are the odds?

Possible actual combinations - either deabc or eabcd, so 2.
5^5 = 3,125 total possible patterns.

0.064% chance.




Only one rarer occurrence with 5 goods would be to correctly guess the combination on the first try, 1/3,125 = 0.032%
 
SkyRider99

SkyRider99

Mentor
Daunting numbers @Sir Derf. One reason I only fight the Spire. It would be fairer if the game provided some clues, or a logical approach to goods negotiation. It is too much like Las Vegas the way it is. :confused:
 

Sir Derf

Adept
It would be fairer, if the game.. provided some clues?
or, a... logical approach... to goods negotiation?

Um, that's the whole point of the Spire Negotiations game. You're not just given an across-the-board success/failure. You're given a yes/not-here-but-somewhere-else/not-here-and-nowhere-else at each position. Those are the clues the game provides... Which you then use a logical approach to work through the negotiations...
 
SkyRider99

SkyRider99

Mentor
Silly Bubbles said:
Here's a little tool to help with negotiation. I haven't use it myself but others recommend it and find it useful.
Click to expand...
dennise said:
I always use Spire Wizard. Its fantastic and I usually win all negotiations, quite often with combinations I would never have thought of for myself.
Click to expand...
Now that is the sort of 'logic' I can relate to. :)

Thanks for sharing @dennise and @Silly Bubbles. May you always prosper, and your crops never fail.
 
Lymhir

Lymhir

Spellcaster
SkyRider99 said:
Daunting numbers @Sir Derf. One reason I only fight the Spire. It would be fairer if the game provided some clues, or a logical approach to goods negotiation. It is too much like Las Vegas the way it is. :confused:
Click to expand...
I am sorry to have to contradict you, there is not much point in evaluating the possibilities with probabilistic calculation, negotiation in the spire requires only the use of logic, put down the first round you have to reason based on the clues in the various ghosts' answers, with a random answer you are doomed.
Silly Bubbles said:
Here's a little tool to help with negotiation. I haven't use it myself but others recommend it and find it useful.
Click to expand...
Also forget about the automatic tools you miss out on the most fun part of the spire and are unable to reason. :)
 
SkyRider99

SkyRider99

Mentor
Lymhir said:
I am sorry to have to contradict you,
Click to expand...
You are entirely welcome to disagree @Lymhir. My experience with the forum includes the respectful interchange of various ideas and points of view. I enjoy reading your postings. There are many ways to play the game. :)

1684495490538.png
 
Silly Bubbles

Silly Bubbles

Necromancer
Lymhir said:
you miss out on the most fun part of the spire and are unable to reason.
Click to expand...

Reasoning is definitely a very useful skill not just in a game. Just like any other skill it needs practice and not to get too upset about mishaps. It's all part of learning. :)
 
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