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'The Forbidden Ruins' questline event - started in Beta Jan 2022

Alcaro

Necromancer
in Beta I am in ch.18 and I get seeds from the set. If this set will not give in ch.19 Unurium instead of seeds, then I am not interested on it whatsoever. I definitely do not need more T3.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Hmmmm. My initial draft of a response was going to start and end with "Follow the chart that computes based on your goal", with a concrete example explained using two actual chests in this event. Which my brain still says is the right way to go. But my gut was starting to rumble slightly as I typed and edited that response. Because I think I might have mis-inferred the provisionally offered suggestion in a way which Jackluyt might or might not have originally meant.

As a goal for Dialies, on a head-to-head basis, 48 chest is better than 23 chest. On equal footings, in the long run, on average, take the 48 chest over the 23 chest. But Elvenar events are finite, and my gut is starting to wonder if there may be some second-level, higher-order mathematically-supported strategy that can be employed, especially when you get to the end of the event and you are running low on currency.

I'm pondering something like this. Suppose you are down to your final 100 SK, and are being offered to choose between the 3 crappiest chests for Dailies, 48, 23 and 58. By the table, 48 is your best choice, giving you a straight 13% chance of the Daily. But, it will leave you with 52 SK, and could prevent you from choosing the 60 chest with it's 19% chance at Daily and 9% chance at 120 more SK if it comes up next round? Is it better to take the 23 chest in this scenario?

I have a feeling that there is a mathematically derivable sliding adjustment that will give added benefit to lower-cost chests and higher benefit to higher-cost chests as your amount of SK decreases. I will need to ponder and work some more math on this.
 

Silly Bubbles

Necromancer
As a rule of thumb, I do large chests to get dailies and small chests to get the main prize. Large chests seem to have a higher chance to get the daily prize and smaller chests give more progress towards the main prize. But I do prefer an accurate calculation for both as some chests can mix it up a little.
 

Silly Bubbles

Necromancer
So far, not. And I must say that is a bit puzzling; I was expecting more Tomes with artifact choices like what they did with Witch Hut / Summoning Circle. The only Tomes this time have a choice of KP and Supply and Coin Instants.
But we have not seen more than 20 prizes yet - and they may still change the version that goes to Live.

It would be great if they offered Tomes that give artifacts as a daily prize. I'm just not sure whether they would let us have that many. It is possible to get more than 10 daily prizes.
 

Jackluyt

Shaman
All the event information that is currently accessible is in this Google Doc:
https://tinyurl.com/3j877v5s
This is not meant only for my Facebook group; all our material is created for the broader Elvenar community, and you are welcome to share the link with all your friends and fellowships. You are also welcome to contribute suggestions and improvements.
:)


271713247_10220371798985698_6362918665372382147_n.jpg
 

SkyRider99

Mentor
I am not particularly interested in ‘mathematical play’....
I am of a similar mindset Jackluyt. For me, it's a game. Experience and observation and even a gut-feeling usually provide more fun and enjoyment, despite the occasional error and mistake. But that's just me. There's something to be said for the leap-of-faith ;)
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Being not particularly interested in 'mathematical play' is fine, and I do thank @Jackluyt for providing the chest payoff odds. On the other hand, offering advice suggesting a strategy that 'may perhaps be better' in a public forum I see as an open invitation for the practice of Semi-Pointless Math (tm). I did shift those musings into its own thread, but to repeat the conclusions, while the proposed strategy is not mathematically sound most of the time, there are certain circumstances when you are low on SK where it is actually better odds to take the low-cost worse odds chest over the high-cost better odds chest; sometimes hoping for two in the bush is better than one in the hand.
 

Gargon667

Mentor
As a goal for Dialies, on a head-to-head basis, 48 chest is better than 23 chest. On equal footings, in the long run, on average, take the 48 chest over the 23 chest. But Elvenar events are finite, and my gut is starting to wonder if there may be some second-level, higher-order mathematically-supported strategy that can be employed, especially when you get to the end of the event and you are running low on currency.

I'm pondering something like this. Suppose you are down to your final 100 SK, and are being offered to choose between the 3 crappiest chests for Dailies, 48, 23 and 58. By the table, 48 is your best choice, giving you a straight 13% chance of the Daily. But, it will leave you with 52 SK, and could prevent you from choosing the 60 chest with it's 19% chance at Daily and 9% chance at 120 more SK if it comes up next round? Is it better to take the 23 chest in this scenario?

I have a feeling that there is a mathematically derivable sliding adjustment that will give added benefit to lower-cost chests and higher benefit to higher-cost chests as your amount of SK decreases. I will need to ponder and work some more math on this.

When i get to the low expectation chests I usually choose the cheapest one, just to get it out of my way and a fresh choice with a more likely better choice of chests. just as an extreme example: price 100 chance 10% or price 10 chance 0.99%? I will go with option 2 always, even though the expected outcome is worse.
So for the good chests I always follow the expected outcome math, for the bad ones, the cheapest price.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
First, you are comparing a price 100 SK 10% Daily chest with an overall expected cost of about 1000 SK/Daily to a price 10 SK 0.99% Daily chest with an overall expected cost of about 1010 SK/Daily, the difference between the two is really small. The two are so close that there is almost no difference between the two, so it's not really a dramatic difference.

Second, if you are making this decision on the hope that in your next offering you will receive a better offer, say a price 150 SK chance 21% Daily with an overall expected cost of 714 SK/Daily, I will point out that you have the same odds (33% in an Elvenar 3 of 9 chest offering) regardless of which chest you pick. Under most circumstances, it is an unfair comparison to decide between better expensive chest now vs. worse cheap chest with the chance of a better chest next; rather you should be deciding between better chest now with the chance of a better chest next vs. worse chest now with a chance at better chest next, which boils down to simply better now vs. worse now. Only when you are low on SK and the choice of the cost chests now has an influence on whether you could accept a better chest next if it comes up does it start to matter.
 

Gargon667

Mentor
First, you are comparing a price 100 SK 10% Daily chest with an overall expected cost of about 1000 SK/Daily to a price 10 SK 0.99% Daily chest with an overall expected cost of about 1010 SK/Daily, the difference between the two is really small. The two are so close that there is almost no difference between the two, so it's not really a dramatic difference.

Second, if you are making this decision on the hope that in your next offering you will receive a better offer, say a price 150 SK chance 21% Daily with an overall expected cost of 714 SK/Daily, I will point out that you have the same odds (33% in an Elvenar 3 of 9 chest offering) regardless of which chest you pick. Under most circumstances, it is an unfair comparison to decide between better expensive chest now vs. worse cheap chest with the chance of a better chest next; rather you should be deciding between better chest now with the chance of a better chest next vs. worse chest now with a chance at better chest next, which boils down to simply better now vs. worse now. Only when you are low on SK and the choice of the cost chests now has an influence on whether you could accept a better chest next if it comes up does it start to matter.

Not sure I follow.
What I am saying is, if I am given the choice between the worst 3 chests for my goal, I don´t pick the third worst (or best of the 3), but I pick the cheapest, because I don´t want to waste a big chunk on crappy outcome if I can instead spend a small amount on crappier outcome and the big chunk on an average outcome in a new chest after.
The reverse (or same?) logics pushes me to go for the more expensive option when presented with the 3 best chests. I rather spend as much as possible on the good outcomes instead of the average outcomes.
Of course if there is a big gap in quality (which seems to be the case at the top end) I go and follow the average stricly. It usually always was the 18 er box that was far and above the best, but I think last time it wasn´t anymore? Can´t remember now...
 

Sir Derf

Adept
To be a little more concrete, if presented with 48, 23 and 58, you would pick the 23 rather than the 48, in the hopes that the 25 you save (48-23) could better be spent on a future 60 chest?

As with some past times, I was going to make a knee-jerk answer, but I'm now wondering if there might be some more applicability to it...

I think the proper way to consider this would be savings now to do things at the end that you wouldn't have been able to do. I mean, if you were immediately offered a 60 chest in the next set of offerings, you would take it no matter what you picked previously, provided you have sufficient SK - it's only if that 25 saved means at the end the difference between, say, 35 vs. 60 SK when being offered a 60 chest at the end.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Hmmmm, here's a thought...

What is the difference between 12 48 chests (576 SK) vs, 12 23 chests and considering 5 60 chests opportunities as having been paid for by the savings (576 SK)?

12 48 chests, at 369.2 SK/daily, expect about 1.56 Dailies.

12 23 chests, at 388.0 SK/daily, expect about 0.71 Dailies. 5 60 chests, at 258.9 SK/daily, expect about 1.15 Dailies, combined, that's 1.86 Dailies, or about .3 more Dailies.

Hmmm...

Odds of being presented the three losers is 1/84, or 1.19%. Not all that likely, but I suppose you could reasonably expect to get several over the course of the event.

But, I still don't think that's the proper way to look at it. Because your middle-game choices don't depend on you early-game choices. It's the opportunities opened at the end of the game based on the savings that you make during the game that would matter. In the middle game, you were going take every 60 chest that is presented, regardless of how many 48s or 23s you opened earlier; the question is how many 60s (or others) at the end you can pick up that you wouldn't have been able to otherwise.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Ah, I think I have the right evaluation.

Currently, each chest is being based on the odds of the particular prize and the future potential of possible bonus SK.

In the more nuanced approach, these computations need to be worked out for each chest in each three-chest presentation separately, factoring in the including the saved SK in that choice.

For example, when presented with the triple-loser 48, 23 and 58, the 48 should be based on costing 58 but paying off 10 SK + 13% Daily, the 23 on costing 58 but paying off 35 SK, 5% Daily and 12% 30 SK, and the 58 on costing 58 but paying off 12% Daily and 13% 80 SK.
 

Stucon

Illusionist
@Jackluyt or anyone else who knows for certain. Could you please tell me which quest is the last one before the 'Daily' quests start?
Thanks in advance.
 

Jackluyt

Shaman
@Jackluyt or anyone else who knows for certain. Could you please tell me which quest is the last one before the 'Daily' quests start?
Thanks in advance.

That is not easy to say, because it depends on how fast you do the quests. Ivar, my star player who records the quests for our event note, steamed through all the quests and reached the episodic quests on January 7th, about two or three days into the event - by that stage he was on quest #58 out of the total of 78 quests. If you play slower, you will finish the storyline later than he did.
:)
 

Gargon667

Mentor
@Jackluyt or anyone else who knows for certain. Could you please tell me which quest is the last one before the 'Daily' quests start?
Thanks in advance.

Just out of curiosity, what are you going to do with the information if you get it?
 

Stucon

Illusionist
I have a spreadsheet that I use to prepare and countdown the quests.
No point in preparing for quest 60 (for example) if you have to wait as it is part of the daily quests.
 

Alcaro

Necromancer
I have a spreadsheet that I use to prepare and countdown the quests.
No point in preparing for quest 60 (for example) if you have to wait as it is part of the daily quests.
Once I hit the dailies I do not care about any list. All daily quests are asking for stuff doable during the regular daily play.
 
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