Sir Derf
Adept
Hmmmm, there's something different going on here that I don't think I've seen anyone mention. It's subtle, and will have an effect on the expected odds in a couple of ways.
I just ran 3000 points of map progress, the same way I did in past events. Look at the waypoints, mentally list them in ascending order, look at the chart, find the best choice for the Daily Prize, select it, look at the prize, look at the progress, rinse and repeat. (I do a lot of rinsing during these events). I slowly became aware of some odd things, compared to past events.
1) I thought I was seeing particular groupings of three waypoints frequently, and not seeing other groupings. For example, I don't think I ever saw a grouping of all 3 worst choices.
2) I noticed that ordering the waypoints was a lot easier. They were in order.
3) I noticed that I always started the next map in the city. In past events,, for example, I sometimes ended a map by getting 3 points on 19 points of progress, earning the 20-point prize and starting the next map with the leftover 2 points of additional progress.
Bottom line, this event does not provide 3 random 1-of-9 waypoints(chests). Most of the time, this map provides you with a random 1-of-4 1 point waypoint(chest), a random 1-of-3 2 point waypoint(chest), and a random 1-of-2 3 point waypoint(chest). And, when you get to the end of the map, if you have 18 points, it provides you 1 1-of-4 1 point and 2 1-3 2 points, or with 19, 3 1-4 1 point; there's never any leftover at the end of each map.
First order, the odds of being offered each chest is not an even 28/84 or 33%, but rather most of the time you have a 25% chance for each 1 point, 33% chance for each 2 point, and 50% chance for each 3 point. Maximizing for Daily's, that means you are less likely to see the originally-#1-ranked Statue and more likely to see the originally #2 and #4 Lake House and House, which changes their rankings.
Second order, you will occasionally (maybe about 1 in 30 each?) be at the end of the map with 18 or 19 points. Your distributions will then be 25% each 1 point and 66% each 2 point or 75% each 1 point. Again, small adjustments.
Third order, following a maximizing strategy will influence how often you end up with 18 or 19 points at the end of the map. For example, the Lake House is available 50% of the time, 25% against the Statue. So, you'll be picking the Lake House 37.5% of the time, and so accumulating 3's more often than 1/3.
Overall, I'm not sure if these changes improve or degrade the expected outcomes/costs for this event compared to past events.
I just ran 3000 points of map progress, the same way I did in past events. Look at the waypoints, mentally list them in ascending order, look at the chart, find the best choice for the Daily Prize, select it, look at the prize, look at the progress, rinse and repeat. (I do a lot of rinsing during these events). I slowly became aware of some odd things, compared to past events.
1) I thought I was seeing particular groupings of three waypoints frequently, and not seeing other groupings. For example, I don't think I ever saw a grouping of all 3 worst choices.
2) I noticed that ordering the waypoints was a lot easier. They were in order.
3) I noticed that I always started the next map in the city. In past events,, for example, I sometimes ended a map by getting 3 points on 19 points of progress, earning the 20-point prize and starting the next map with the leftover 2 points of additional progress.
Bottom line, this event does not provide 3 random 1-of-9 waypoints(chests). Most of the time, this map provides you with a random 1-of-4 1 point waypoint(chest), a random 1-of-3 2 point waypoint(chest), and a random 1-of-2 3 point waypoint(chest). And, when you get to the end of the map, if you have 18 points, it provides you 1 1-of-4 1 point and 2 1-3 2 points, or with 19, 3 1-4 1 point; there's never any leftover at the end of each map.
First order, the odds of being offered each chest is not an even 28/84 or 33%, but rather most of the time you have a 25% chance for each 1 point, 33% chance for each 2 point, and 50% chance for each 3 point. Maximizing for Daily's, that means you are less likely to see the originally-#1-ranked Statue and more likely to see the originally #2 and #4 Lake House and House, which changes their rankings.
Second order, you will occasionally (maybe about 1 in 30 each?) be at the end of the map with 18 or 19 points. Your distributions will then be 25% each 1 point and 66% each 2 point or 75% each 1 point. Again, small adjustments.
Third order, following a maximizing strategy will influence how often you end up with 18 or 19 points at the end of the map. For example, the Lake House is available 50% of the time, 25% against the Statue. So, you'll be picking the Lake House 37.5% of the time, and so accumulating 3's more often than 1/3.
Overall, I'm not sure if these changes improve or degrade the expected outcomes/costs for this event compared to past events.