• Good day, Stranger! — Are you new to our forums?

    Have I seen you here before? To participate in or to create forum discussions, you will need your own forum account. Register your account here!

Discussion Sorcerers' Pilgrimage

Sir Derf

Necromancer
Hmmmm, there's something different going on here that I don't think I've seen anyone mention. It's subtle, and will have an effect on the expected odds in a couple of ways.

I just ran 3000 points of map progress, the same way I did in past events. Look at the waypoints, mentally list them in ascending order, look at the chart, find the best choice for the Daily Prize, select it, look at the prize, look at the progress, rinse and repeat. (I do a lot of rinsing during these events). I slowly became aware of some odd things, compared to past events.

1) I thought I was seeing particular groupings of three waypoints frequently, and not seeing other groupings. For example, I don't think I ever saw a grouping of all 3 worst choices.
2) I noticed that ordering the waypoints was a lot easier. They were in order.
3) I noticed that I always started the next map in the city. In past events,, for example, I sometimes ended a map by getting 3 points on 19 points of progress, earning the 20-point prize and starting the next map with the leftover 2 points of additional progress.

Bottom line, this event does not provide 3 random 1-of-9 waypoints(chests). Most of the time, this map provides you with a random 1-of-4 1 point waypoint(chest), a random 1-of-3 2 point waypoint(chest), and a random 1-of-2 3 point waypoint(chest). And, when you get to the end of the map, if you have 18 points, it provides you 1 1-of-4 1 point and 2 1-3 2 points, or with 19, 3 1-4 1 point; there's never any leftover at the end of each map.


First order, the odds of being offered each chest is not an even 28/84 or 33%, but rather most of the time you have a 25% chance for each 1 point, 33% chance for each 2 point, and 50% chance for each 3 point. Maximizing for Daily's, that means you are less likely to see the originally-#1-ranked Statue and more likely to see the originally #2 and #4 Lake House and House, which changes their rankings.

Second order, you will occasionally (maybe about 1 in 30 each?) be at the end of the map with 18 or 19 points. Your distributions will then be 25% each 1 point and 66% each 2 point or 75% each 1 point. Again, small adjustments.

Third order, following a maximizing strategy will influence how often you end up with 18 or 19 points at the end of the map. For example, the Lake House is available 50% of the time, 25% against the Statue. So, you'll be picking the Lake House 37.5% of the time, and so accumulating 3's more often than 1/3.


Overall, I'm not sure if these changes improve or degrade the expected outcomes/costs for this event compared to past events.
 

Pauly7

Immortal
Interesting observations. I hadn't paid too much attention to whether points were carrying over to the next round. I think I assumed that it was just a graphical thing that they always start you from the city. The problem for me is that the maths becomes a little less entertaining when I'm so disinterested in winning anything from the event. Back when we were doing the Bears event it was much more fun to paw over the probabilities, etc, so I think I pay less attention with this one.
 

Sir Derf

Necromancer
I find it more interesting than the impacts on the math that no one, as far as I know, pointed out either of these changes. Not in Beta. Not in live.

I'm kicking myself for not noticing it earlier. I had saved up for particular items, and so today was my second day of cashing in, and while I felt something odd that first day, I hadn't considered that it was anything other than just weird RNG outcomes.

On the plus, I love the streamlining of the process, fewer clicks, fewer delays.
 

Gargon667

Illusionist
I noticed/second sir derf.
Inno wants more control over what we get.
what´s new? I guess they try to get at it a bit more "sneakily" because of the universal hatred of the shuffle board lol. Of course only if it is actually happening.

I agree with @Pauly7: I simply don´t care enough to even bother thinking about it, even though I felt something was a bit weird.
Also I don´t say I agree or disagree that this is actually something other than random.
 

Hekata

Necromancer
What happened to the Arcane Trinket Shop that was supposed to be today? We've already had the Sorcerers Gathering, it's really not an interesting enough prize to be repeated twice :(
 

Pauly7

Immortal
What happened to the Arcane Trinket Shop that was supposed to be today? We've already had the Sorcerers Gathering, it's really not an interesting enough prize to be repeated twice :(
Yep, I noticed that. No idea why they'd decide to change it and repeat this one when the trinket shop hasn't even come up once yet.
 

Hekata

Necromancer
Yep, I noticed that. No idea why they'd decide to change it and repeat this one when the trinket shop hasn't even come up once yet.
The Trinket shop was supposed to come up twice in 3 days. Maybe they wanted to replace the second appearance of the shop but changed the wrong one instead.
 

Pauly7

Immortal
The Sorcerers Gathering is actually quite a bit better, stats-wise, but I'm like you - I'd rather have the building that looks cooler... still not sure if I'd build either though.
 

Gargon667

Illusionist
it´s the best daily prize in my eyes, if mana becomes a thing with the new tourneys. If you calculate the pop it gives in addition.
 

Hekata

Necromancer
True, it is the best building for mana form this event but personally I have a lot of the very good mana producers from previous events that I'll just upgrade a couple of chapters if I need more mana. So in this case, as @Pauly7 said I'd rather go with the cooler building and this one makes a nice set with the wizard shop. In fact it's a pity they are not a tiny set; they could have had a bonus of producing each 1 random spell every 24 even 48 hours when placed together.
 

Pauly7

Immortal
I picked up a Sorcerers Gathering just n case and will hopefully get the shop too... even if they'll both just gather dust in the cupboard for a while.
 

Toursy

Seeker
Could we stop to get portal profit instant when we don't have the use of it? (like not enough advanced to use them...)
It's quite frustrating, even if we can disenchant them... (this could apply for Spire too).

For yet I feel it's quite impossible to finish the event with the golem at the top level... (without paying)... a bit sad.
 
Last edited:

AstralSoul

Necromancer
gentle.JPG


Definitely gentle on dropping sorcerer's knowledge, I caught up to the dailies, and I have to count one Outpost stash (sorry, it's worth it), as you can see, I am on my second base, (I am placing none since it does not give KPs), and see all the regular KPs... Its more than other events.


Although those PP are a killer... and too many coin rains, they need balancing with tool spells.

Edit: Ended up with 651 regular KP, and over 300 in spells. So they nerfed more stuff but made overall better drops, so in the big picture, I do not see it as a nerf, but maybe a re-distribution. Sure, the troop spells are smaller, but regular KPs drop a lot more than other events, they increased that. I also got 1430 sorcerer's knowledge total from all quests including today's, and pick up with Outpost.

I always spent all my stash in one day for all events, so I can compare (on the daily drop I want). And then, the rest the last day. I possibly moved slower than normal but got more KP, and less of those spells we like least (well, I got a quite a few PPs sadly, but besides those.)

True, it is the best building for mana form this event but personally I have a lot of the very good mana producers from previous events that I'll just upgrade a couple of chapters if I need more mana. So in this case, as @Pauly7 said I'd rather go with the cooler building and this one makes a nice set with the wizard shop. In fact it's a pity they are not a tiny set; they could have had a bonus of producing each 1 random spell every 24 even 48 hours when placed together.
Yeah, but the good thing they are not is that there is no need to worry for any prizes but this one, and the one on Saturday... The buildings are nice, and have some in my small beta, but no room at main city.
 
Last edited:

valle

Soothsayer
For yet I feel it's quite impossible to finish the event with the golem at the top level... (without paying)... a bit sad.
If you pick the ones scattered around your village regulary and when spending selects the right ones (Pauly7 made a good list of which to select) it should be no problems. I've got mine to level 10 already without spending any money and it's a few days left.
 

Hekata

Necromancer
Yeah, but the good thing they are not is that there is no need to worry for any prizes but this one, and the one on Saturday... The buildings are nice, and have some in my small beta, but no room at main city.
The Saturday one being AWKps I presume. I'd rather go with nice buildings or troop instants. Those 10kps are not worth it and, as I replied to you in the other thread, with the upcoming tournament changes too many Aw levels will only hurt you, unless they change it ofc.
 

Toursy

Seeker
If you pick the ones scattered around your village regulary and when spending selects the right ones (Pauly7 made a good list of which to select) it should be no problems. I've got mine to level 10 already without spending any money and it's a few days left.
Hi, yes I do, concerning spending them, I don't think that's normal to expect one player to go on the beta to take a list and pray to have the luck to find that list before the event... it should something online to let us understand which one is better to use if we look for big prize for example.
 

Pauly7

Immortal
Hi, yes I do, concerning spending them, I don't think that's normal to expect one player to go on the beta to take a list and pray to have the luck to find that list before the event... it should something online to let us understand which one is better to use if we look for big prize for example.
It's not on Beta. It's on this thread. Even if it wasn't, anyone can sit and figure out which chests/beacons give the best return for winning artefacts. They tell you all the probabilities. With a questline that's so quick and simple I don't think it's much of a hardship to say that people will need to think about their strategy a little if they want to win a certain thing. Not everyone even wants the artefacts so many people will be choosing what is best for them if they'd rather win dailies. If you've been constantly picking the 83 or 92 beacons then no, you will never get to 9 artefacts.