First, let's talk about SK collection.
What's a reasonable assessment of minimal-effort, bad luck event completion? Suppose someone logs in every two days for what we'll call 12 times, right before the expiration of the daily gift, so they immediately pick up the odd day's gift, and then minutes later they get the even day's gift. They also, each visit, pick up the 6 SK's littered around their city, but with bad luck, every single one is worth only 1 SK. And, they manage to complete all the quests in those 12 visits. Oh, and they don't get the e-mail. So, they complete all the quests for 3729 SK, they get all the dailies for 805, and they pick up 12*6 = 72 SK around their city, for a disappointing total of 4,606 SK.
What's a reasonable assessment of normal-effort, bad luck event completion? Suppose you log in every day for a 3-3-3-3-3-9 production schedule. You get all the daily gifts, you get 21 city pickups a day (you miss 3 overnight), but with bad luck they are still all 1 SK. You complete all the quests. But the bad luck also means you get no e-mail. That's 3729 + 805 + 483 = 5,017 SK. (If you check once in the middle of the night for full-effort, bad luck event completion, that's 69 more village SK, totaling 5,086 SK)
Suppose you have average luck, which I will say is getting the e-mail and averaging 2 SK per pickup. Minimal-effort average luck = 4,778 SK, normal-effort average luck is 5,600 SK, and full-effort average luck is 5,738 SK.
And lastly, if you have good luck, which I will say is getting the e-mail and always picking up 3 SK. Minimal-effort good luck = 4,850 SK, normal-effort good luck is 6,083 SK, and full-effort good luck (a perfect collection) = 6,290.
All together...
| Bad Luck | Average Luck | Good Luck |
---|
Minimal-effort | 4,606 SK | 4,778 SK | 4,850 SK |
Normal-effort | 5,017 SK | 5,600 SK | 6,083 SK |
Full-effort | 5,086 SK | 5,738 SK | 6,290 SK |
Looking at the above, for normal effort, luck gives a -583/+483 (-10.4%/+8.6%) swing around average luck (unequal because of the e-mail), or an overall 19% spread.