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Sorcerers' Homecoming event

Gargon667

Mentor
Also I want to add the case of perfect luck: If you have perfect luck all you need is an initial pickup of 27 SK (or lets make it easier 1 daily 35 pickup), then you pick the 27 beacon, you gain 80 SK and it´s all uphill from there, all you need is to win the extra SK on every chest that offers them. Just don´t forget to pick the big chest whenever you have less than 150 (or so) SK. You will have (near) infinite rewards meaning an infinite number of ALL daily prizes, ALL grandprizes and ALL beacon rewards (including troops, goods, coin/supply instants, Runes, mana and whatever other resources) :)
Basically 1 event like that and you never ever need to produce anything for as long as you play the game, with the exception of the resources that are not offered at all in the event.
There is one limit though: How many times can you possibly click in 23 days of non-stop clicking?
 

Gargon667

Mentor
Hahaha the funniest thing just happened! I had my last 400 SK ready to go and see if I can gamble (or not gamble) my way back into the silver league in the last hour of the event (I had 261 from before).
Only I forgot the great plan and when I next logged in I wondered what I did to get a Carting Library hahaha
Those events sure don´t hold my attention anymore nowadays ... they are not even close to as entertaining as semi-pointless-maths experiments! At least I am pretty sure I have been here on the Forum at some point of the last hour of the event, but if I have been in the game I surely haven´t clicked on the event button...
 

Sir Derf

Summoner
Perfect luck 27s is pay 27, get 80, for a net bonus of 53 per click and a rate of return of +196%.
Perfect luck 80 is pay 80, get 300, for a net bonus of 240 per click and a rate of return of +300%.

When compared on the basis of equal input and equal relative luck, the 27 is better because the lower cost of the 27 means it would be played almost 3 times as often. The 27 reaches infinite production at a lower luck level than the 89 or the 80. But weird things happen once luck becomes so good that both are producing infinite output. As @Gargon667 mused, now the limiting factor is time, not currency. Once the relative cost weight is removed, the payoff of the 80 is superior on a beacon-by-beacon basis.

Let's say that it takes 5 seconds per beacon, allowing for the multiple windows to click through, communication with the server and the delays that the graphical movement takes, both per move and at the end of the trail. That's 17,280 beacons per day, 397,440 beacons in 23 days, you will have spent a total of31,795,200 SK, but ended with a positive balance of 95,385,600. and would have earned 59,616 Grand Prizes (Ignoring the fact that each trip across the map technically should end with using a smaller beacon for the final steps).
 

Gargon667

Mentor
(Ignoring the fact that each trip across the map technically should end with using a smaller beacon for the final steps).
thank you for that add-on, otherwise it would have been a really unrealistic scenario!
And you don´t need much math to determine to go for the 80ies, you can move 3 times as much SK in the same time with them as you can with the 27. Time is the limiting factor.

Also I bet you I can click faster than 5 sec per beacon :p But I might give you a slip on that one, since the bigger problem might be to stay awake for 23 days straight maintaining body functionality to click at all.
Given all this insanity I am actually surprised how few Grand prizes come out as a result... even increasing the click rate to 1 beacon per second would only give us 300k grandprizes... quite a ways to go to reach infinity anyways... we´re really hard to please these days, aren´t we?
 

rock stream

Conjurer
we´re really hard to please these days, aren´t we?
I'd say yep.
First time that a majority of our fellowship complained about an event. The 1 & 3 minute time instants were a fan favorites along with completing the quests but no full set. I on the other hand loved the size of the set. I have a lot of extra space in Chapter 12 that needs filling after I delete a couple AW's.
A very suspicions group thinking this event was blatant monetary based activity for the quarterly statement.
We're going to need to set up a language policy in our group chats now :rolleyes:
 

BlueBlou

Sorcerer
Just thought I would list the final boundaries of the leagues. Arendyll seems to be the one that had the most competition for the gold status.

Winyandor​
Felyndral​
Arendyll​
Hobby
0+​
0+​
0+​
Amateur
96+​
99+​
98+​
Bronze
233+​
233+​
233+​
Silver
280+​
278+​
279+​
Gold
342+​
331+​
350+​
 

Pauly7

Magus
Just thought I would list the final boundaries of the leagues. Arendyll seems to be the one that had the most competition for the gold status.

Winyandor​
Felyndral​
Arendyll​
Hobby
0+​
0+​
0+​
Amateur
96+​
99+​
98+​
Bronze
233+​
233+​
233+​
Silver
280+​
278+​
279+​
Gold
342+​
331+​
350+​
Interesting. All startlingly similar with only big swings when it comes to the threshold for gold level. I can only assume that each world had a different proportion of people willing to surge for gold during the final hour.
 

Sir Derf

Summoner
I draw the following hypothesis..

Most players, about the same percent on all three worlds (% represented by Hobby through Bronze) played without spending. On an equivalent percentage basis, they had similar people completing to similar levels in the quests, had similar distributions of players following different strategies, and experienced a similar distribution of RNG outcomes. Oh, and they had similar spending habits, but probably minimal. However, somewhere in the minority of players (more than the 1% of Gold, starting somewhere in the mid range of Silver), there was difference in the amount of gold that was spent by individual players, and that spending was done and used before the final hour (didn't I read that the thresholds would be fixed at the final hour?) Right 1 hour to go, the thresholds were fixed, and Gold had 1%, any additional spending that elevated Silver to Gold would just increase the percent in that League, not raise the threshold to that league.


I haven't yet been bothered to work out the math for a good simulation of actually using good strategy. But here's a few new tidbits...

If you always received the 18 beacon, a nominal start of 6,000 SK would allow you to open 333 beacons, you would get no bonus, and acquire 333 staffs, putting you just into Gold in F-world.

If you always received the 27 beacon, 6,000 SK would get you about 317 beacons, middling Silver in all worlds.

Optimal strategy on real beacon options, I don't know what that would get you, but it would have to be worse than being able to pick all 27 beacons.
 

Gargon667

Mentor
Optimal strategy on real beacon options, I don't know what that would get you, but it would have to be worse than being able to pick all 27 beacons.
You had the percentages of beacons already worked out earlier. Just add the average results for the average amounts you take the beacons and you get what the average on bet strategy gains, no?

so 25% were 18, which produces 6000*0,25/18= 83 staffs
25% 27: 6000*0,25/19 = 79 staffs
16,6% 45: etc
16,6% 80: etc
16,6% 89: etc

Although I think I personally would only assume 5500 SK to start with I think you need above average luck to make it to 6000 according to your last math experiment :).
 

Sir Derf

Summoner
I didn't trust the results when I plugged my attempt(s) at making a single aggregate beacon. I posted what I could justify, and held back what I couldn't. We'll have to see if the itch for semi-pointless math pulls me back in.

I also figured that eventually @MinMax Gamer would update his calculator... nudge, nudge...
 

Sir Derf

Summoner
Brute force approximation of average luck on best strategy.

25% 18 + 25% 27 + 16% 45 + 16% 89 + 16% 80 = 46.92 SK / beacon

Working with the mythical 6,000 SK to start, you could open about 127 beacons in first round.

32 18s, 32 27s, 21 45s, 21 80s, 21 89s, 127 beacons total, 5,934 SK total, 66 SK remains.

10% of 32 = 3 bonus, 240 SK.
7% of 21 = 1 bonus, 80 SK
5% of 21 = 1 bonus, 300 SK
12% of 21 = 2 bonus, 200 SK

Total = 820 SK.

886 SK -> about 18 beacons in the second round, 5 18s and 27s, 3 45s, 80s and 89s, 19 beacons total.

No bonus, 19 remains.

And let's say you get an 18 in the third round, no bonus.

So, we opened 127+19+1 = 147 beacons.

38 18s, 37 27s, so 75 staffs from singletons. 24 45s, so 48 staffs from duples. 48 80s and 89s, so 144 staffs from triples. Total of 267 staffs. 14 Grand Prizes. Winner winner, Complete Set Dinner.




If we start with the more realistic Average-effort average luck 5,600 SK...

... you could open about 119 beacons in first round.

30 18s, 30 27s, 19 (had to round down someone) 45s, 20 80s, 20 89s, 119 beacons total, 5,585 SK total, 15 SK remains.

10% of 30 = 3 bonus, 240 SK.
7% of 19 = 1 bonus, 80 SK
5% of 20 = 1 bonus, 300 SK
12% of 20 = 2 bonus, 200 SK

Total = 820 SK.

835 SK -> about 18 beacons in the second round, 4 18s and 27s, 3 45s, 80s and 89s, 17 beacons total.

No bonus, 13 remains.

So, we opened 119+17= 136 beacons.

34 18s, 34 27s, so 68 staffs from singletons. 22 45s, so 44 staffs from duples. 46 80s and 89s, so 138 staffs from triples. Total of 250 staffsl. 12 Grand Prizes. And, only 6/7 Set Buildings.


So, that's my effort. Average luck and average effort collecting SK, average luck and best strategy, and you're likely-ish to get half-way to completing the last map for the last piece of the set.
 

Gargon667

Mentor
So even the best strategy needs a little dose of good luck :)