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Leagues

Pauly7

Magus
I am sorry but thats really on your fellows part.
you can get staffs at a rate of 22 points or lower on average.

with 35 per day * 22 = 770 points
Random pickup 4 logins a day. 20-30 (30 is if you miss 0 pickups) per day = 440-660 points
Quests 4226 points
2x 200 from progress reward.

4226+440+770+200+200= 5836 points

5436/22 = 265 staffs = 13 main prizes or more if you pickup more around your city.

this should be enough for 1 set.
Off course if you constantly pick the wrong "expensive" chests per staff you could screw yourself.
But otherwise all players should be well below 22 points per staff on average.

Do not forget that most of the quest points are in the latter half of the quesline.
What you say checks out, but it's tight. When I ran these numbers I found that by picking all the right beacons and completing everything, etc, then statistically you should get over the line... but not by that much... which means that a big proportion of people will do the right things but not be lucky - possibly nearly 40% could still fail.
 

Toplaw

Novice
I concur with Wibbly and Giraffi. Perhaps if you always go for the best points per staff ratio you can obtain the last building of the set, but I see no evidence of that. I have had many presentations of choice with the best ratio at 27. I will easily finish the event, and my only real hope for the final building is to score some "extra" points on the way....
 

Toplaw

Novice
Wibbly Woo is correct... same experience with my fellowship. I will easily finish, but cannot see any way of getting the final building.
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
I concur with Wibbly and Giraffi. Perhaps if you always go for the best points per staff ratio you can obtain the last building of the set, but I see no evidence of that. I have had many presentations of choice with the best ratio at 27. I will easily finish the event, and my only real hope for the final building is to score some "extra" points on the way....
Extra points should be part of the equasion.

The value of staffs per chest = (cost of chest - average return rate)/staffs
So a 54 2 staff chest with a 10% return of 90 will cost you 54 - (10% of 90=9) = 45/2 staffs = 22.5 per staff.

Off course there is also a rumoured FSA comming, and we do not know what the prizes are there, who knows it might be parts of this set, maybe the ones you are missing.
 

Pauly7

Magus
I have had many presentations of choice with the best ratio at 27.
This is not true. You have to look at the whole picture. The very worst beacon is the 30 beacon. Using this one will cost 26.25 scrolls per point. The second worse is the 32 beacon. Using this one will cost you 23.6 scrolls per point. The best beacon is 18 and all the rest are evenly spread between there and 23.6.

There is no point looking at it without factoring in the amount of free scrolls you can win and the probability of getting them.
 

Sir Derf

Artisan
I comparitively did the numbers for Picking chests based on the Face value (not counting the effects of event currency rewards) versus based on the Expected outcomes (including the effects of event currency rewards) in another thread. Given the way this event presents your options, giving you 1 1, 2 and 3 SK option instead of randomly presenting any 3 of the nine options, there is nearly no difference in which strategy you follow. That is, under almost all situations, you will make the same choice regardless of if you are using Face value or Expected value, and in those few scenarios where you would make a different choice, the change is almost negligible.
 

Gargon667

Immortal
I comparitively did the numbers for Picking chests based on the Face value (not counting the effects of event currency rewards) versus based on the Expected outcomes (including the effects of event currency rewards) in another thread. Given the way this event presents your options, giving you 1 1, 2 and 3 SK option instead of randomly presenting any 3 of the nine options, there is nearly no difference in which strategy you follow. That is, under almost all situations, you will make the same choice regardless of if you are using Face value or Expected value, and in those few scenarios where you would make a different choice, the change is almost negligible.
Interesting, but I don´t understand why the presentation of the option influences things? Unless of course the only difference between face value and adjusted value is within the same "tier" of beacons? It never occurred to me to check for that!
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
There are only 2 chests that are "cheap" with 18 and 19.7 (45 chest with return there are 2 different 45 chests) so if you can grab many of those it makes some difference. as they are 10-20% cheaper, so you adds another 20-40 staffs or so if you could exclusively use those 2 chests.

But if you do grab the 30/32 beacons a lot it will make a huge difference as they will make it much more expensive.

All the other chests are pretty much around 22 points per staff, and it does not matter much which one you pick
 

Gargon667

Immortal
There are only 2 chests that are "cheap" with 18 and 19.7 (45 chest with return there are 2 different 45 chests) so if you can grab many of those it makes some difference. as they are 10-20% cheaper, so you adds another 20-40 staffs or so if you could exclusively use those 2 chests.

But if you do grab the 30/32 beacons a lot it will make a huge difference as they will make it much more expensive.

All the other chests are pretty much around 22 points per staff, and it does not matter much which one you pick
The second best one is actually the 27er, but we have got a bit of a discussion about all that over in the other thread.
 

Paladestar

Enchanter
Two cities, same starting SK (+/- 5), same chest opening methodology:

City #1 - 229 League points
City #2 - 294 League points

Just confirms to me what I saw when this event was announced - Gold League = lots of luck or pay to win. So basically, anyone who uses the portrait from gold is telling the world that they're very lucky or happy to pay their way past other players - What a badge of honour!
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
Two cities, same starting SK (+/- 5), same chest opening methodology:

City #1 - 229 League points
City #2 - 294 League points

Just confirms to me what I saw when this event was announced - Gold League = lots of luck or pay to win. So basically, anyone who uses the portrait from gold is telling the world that they're very lucky or happy to pay their way past other players - What a badge of honour!
As soon as you add a 1% thing, obviously just hard work just doesn't make it.
Like in real life, you either need luck, money or both to get into the top 1% of the working society. if effort was the main factor there would be a lot more than 1% in the top 1% and then it wouldn't be the top 1%
 

Gargon667

Immortal
Two cities, same starting SK (+/- 5), same chest opening methodology:

City #1 - 229 League points
City #2 - 294 League points

Just confirms to me what I saw when this event was announced - Gold League = lots of luck or pay to win. So basically, anyone who uses the portrait from gold is telling the world that they're very lucky or happy to pay their way past other players - What a badge of honour!
Pretty sure neither of your two towns will get into the gold league. The lower one will probably not even make silver, unless the server are very different.
I guess what I want to say: Luck is not getting you into the gold league. Unless you have silly big luck.
Luck will be the deciding factor between bronze and silver.

Effort gets you bronze
Luck gets you silver
Money gets you gold
 
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CrazyWizard

Shaman
Where does smart play fit in this picture?
You can do the thing that gets you average, which gets you in the iddle of the pack, aka nowhere.
Or you can gamble on luck, take a risk and get somewhere or fall back to the bottom.

So you can play on luck on purpose, I am currently on gold on my live server with 18 points spare.
I played on luck because I wanted an opportunity to get myself into gold range with diamonds for the portrait, I got so lucky that I might not need any diamonds at all but only time can tell in the comming 3 days. but I gambled and got myself into the place I am in now. it could have failed but thats the risk I took. and you can also prepare and save many free diamond ahead, so you don't even need to pay. you can prepare.

So you can create an opportunity for yourself with smart play & luck, and/or diamond preparation or create no opportunity at all with playing safe. you choose what route, risks, and preparation you take.
 

m4rt1n

Mentor
Luck will get me silver possibly, won 1200 extra so far and now 32 below gold, and 20 into silver on Arendyll. It depends on how much spending takes place on the last day, I envisage big shifts due to FOMO.
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
The 27 beacon costs 19 SK per point.
yes but I did not like it much.
most of the time you also have a 45% with return in the same pool.
Then it's 19SK, but if luck fails 27 per SK, or 19.6SK and 22.5 if luck fails.

45 with return is by far the less risky move
And if you throw the dice on luck, 80/89 has a far greater impact in your luck results. a few good dice rolls set's you up high (and none sets you low)

A few good dice rolls on 27 is nice, but it keeps you in average player land.
If you use the strategy everyone does, you get into everyoneland.

Luck will get me silver possibly, won 1200 extra so far and now 32 below gold, and 20 into silver on Arendyll. It depends on how much spending takes place on the last day, I envisage big shifts due to FOMO.
If thats the case, then they call this change a super duper amazing awesome change. (from innos point of vieuw)
and yes if you are only 32 below gold at the end of the event, it makes sense to maybe go for it. same for those close enough to silver.

Thats where they obviously hope for, enough edge cases to increase spending.
There is a reason these GP are pretty good ;)
 

Pauly7

Magus
yes but I did not like it much.
most of the time you also have a 45% with return in the same pool.
Then it's 19SK, but if luck fails 27 per SK, or 19.6SK and 22.5 if luck fails.

45 with return is by far the less risky move
And if you throw the dice on luck, 80/89 has a far greater impact in your luck results. a few good dice rolls set's you up high (and none sets you low)

A few good dice rolls on 27 is nice, but it keeps you in average player land.
If you use the strategy everyone does, you get into everyoneland.
Yes the risk is greater with the 27 beacon and if we don't want to take the risk we'd employ @Laurelin's tactic of just looking at the face value odds, but 27 is still the better option playing the averages.
 

Gargon667

Immortal
I played on luck because I wanted an opportunity to get myself into gold range with diamonds for the portrait, I got so lucky that I might not need any diamonds at all but only time can tell in the comming 3 days. but I gambled and got myself into the place I am in now. it could have failed but thats the risk I took. and you can also prepare and save many free diamond ahead, so you don't even need to pay. you can prepare.
That´s of course true you don´t actually need money, just diamonds. So yes I could spend my 20k diamonds from the spire get into the gold league and not have to pay actual money, but that argument is the same all over. So using that argument pay2win doesn´t exist, because I can always use free diamonds to win...