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Discussion Gathering of the Phoenix Cults

DeletedUser9591

Guest
Actually newer players DO have a long term advantage in the tournaments, they are able to skip unforced SS upgrades, an option we never had
a. tournaments never existed
b. tournament rules were changed between the woodelves and sorceres and dragon chapters only then was the disadvantage of researching SS upgrades for tournaments introduced. everyone who played at that time already had those researches completed, and thats something we cannot undo.

re a: I like tournaments in general but dislike timing thing. Again, as a new player I do not have any buildings to reduce the time in tournaments. Timewarp is out of sight, polar bear unavailable.
re b: how many new players know that they must skip optional SS upgrades? :) I found out about this trick only when I was finishing dwarves chapter. Some players even in later chapters than dwarves do not know that. Forum is not a mandatory part of this game :) If I remember this right, wiki is encouraging to increase squad size and elvengems say nothing. It could be advantage if new players would knew about this... but.. if something will change in this game and players will need to catch up on SS research they skipped, this will be real fun :) For instance I am not sure how SS is affecting the difficulty of the spire and what is the effect of skipped optional SS upgrades.
 

CrazyWizard

Shaman
re a: I like tournaments in general but dislike timing thing. Again, as a new player I do not have any buildings to reduce the time in tournaments. Timewarp is out of sight, polar bear unavailable.
re b: how many new players know that they must skip optional SS upgrades? :) I found out about this trick only when I was finishing dwarves chapter. Some players even in later chapters than dwarves do not know that. Forum is not a mandatory part of this game :) If I remember this right, wiki is encouraging to increase squad size and elvengems say nothing. It could be advantage if new players would knew about this... but.. if something will change in this game and players will need to catch up on SS research they skipped, this will be real fun :) For instance I am not sure how SS is affecting the difficulty of the spire and what is the effect of skipped optional SS upgrades.
It depends on which guild you join, if you you are lucky and join the correct guild you get that information pretty fast.
In your case dwarves? thats still way before Sorcerers and Dragons I think.

Sometimes you gotta be lucky, when I started this game I stumbled on a written transcript of a Q&A on the forum that explained how broken at that tie quest cyling was, this gave me a mayor edge in the first few weeks before they got rid of the most abusive ones en helped me speed up my progression to or beyond the current progression new players can make these days. (at those days there was only a research tree no events, no tournaments no anyting)

Thats how it works you stumble agains information one wat or the other quick or not so quick, but at least you might get the information and use it, we were never able to use it.

ps we lived with the timing thing for years, just work hard and that timing issue will solve itself eventually.
 

DeletedUser9591

Guest
It depends on which guild you join, if you you are lucky and join the correct guild you get that information pretty fast.
In your case dwarves? thats still way before Sorcerers and Dragons I think.

Sometimes you gotta be lucky, when I started this game I stumbled on a written transcript of a Q&A on the forum that explained how broken at that tie quest cyling was, this gave me a mayor edge in the first few weeks before they got rid of the most abusive ones en helped me speed up my progression to or beyond the current progression new players can make these days. (at those days there was only a research tree no events, no tournaments no anyting)

Thats how it works you stumble agains information one wat or the other quick or not so quick, but at least you might get the information and use it, we were never able to use it.

ps we lived with the timing thing for years, just work hard and that timing issue will solve itself eventually.

My experience is that finding a good FS is even more difficult than gathering fire phoenix evolves in this game :) I met individual players who were very helpful, hence I believe that I had a good ''training''. I find this game relatively simply to understand and play.

My preference would be more focus on individual game. I can start discussing the reasons why, but it will be waaaay off topic :)
 
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DeletedUser9591

Guest
Because the discussion about old phoenix evolves is very similar to one which has been closed now, I am posting my reply here.

Many times players are referring to the probabilities. Same applies to the chance of getting phoenix evolve recipe in MA.

My point is very simple based on my observations/outcomes I get in the game. As an example I took chances stated in the spire. Data I get (numerous outcomes) is a sample size on which I can make some assumptions. My data/sample size should reflect chances given. In well designed, entertaining game I would expect to see the following: if somebody states that chance is 5%, I would expect that every player will get that outcome 5% (say, 5 times of 100), of course the order of the outcomes will be different for each player. The reality is that those numbers/chances do not make any sense here. Maybe I am playing rotating scenarios each week, maybe there are conditions which should be met in order to get this probability, maybe there is correlation between certain items or actions, etc. So those numbers do not describe anything for me, just random numbers which are misleading.

The way chances are presented here is more like in gambling industry, but not in a simple game, where players who spend money can calculate their pay off. Gambling industry is heavily regulated - and this is my point.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
I think you have an incorrect expectation of the results of random events.

Let me simplify by playing some games around the 4 suits in a deck of card, Clubs, hearts, diamonds and spades.

I tell you you will have a 1:4 chance of seeing each suit. In the game, you will draw a card from the pile I have prepared and record what suit it is.

Scenario 1: The pile has four cards, and every time you pick a card, I secretly put it back on the bottom of the deck. In this scenario, at times some suit counts will be 1 higher than others. but every 4 cards drawn the distribution will be evenly spread and the ratios will be 1:4 for all. And everyone else playing the same game under the same conditions will see the same behavior. Play slow or fast; spend money to play more, 1:4, regular, average, consistent. You could run a game like this. I don't think anyone does.

Scenario 1a: After every 4 cards, I shuffle the deck. Short term behavior, you won't know what order the 4 plays will come, but statistically similar results, counts differ by 1, perfect distributions every 4.

Scenario 2: The pile has 8 cards, 2 each, and every time you pick a card, I secretly put it on the bottom of the deck. In this scenario, you will occasionally see the counts separate by 2, but every 8 cards drawn the distribution will again be evenly spread and the ratios will be 1:4 for all. Again, everyone else will see the same behavior. You could run a game like this. I don't think anyone does.

Scenario 2a: After every 8 cards, I shuffle the deck. Similar to 1a.

Scenario 3: The pile has 52 cards, 13 of each, each draw returned to the bottom. More chaotic behavior, increasing local deviations up to 13 counts different over time, but again, there will be periodic evening of the odds back to exact 1:4 ratios.

Scenario 3a: Reshuffle every 52. Similar. (By the way, this is how most board games tend to operate, from Candy Land to Monopoly.)

Scenario 4: The pile has multiple decks. Scenario 4a: Reshuffle ever full run.

By my understanding, scenario 4a is close to what gets done in many physical casino card games. I don't think they let the pile of cards go to the end, so the long term odds for card frequencies won't periodic return to perfect odds.

All of the above 8 scenarios will provide short-term variations, but will guarantee long term exact ratios for everyone involved. Programmatically, you could implement them with a continuous list that you cycle through one at a time. Or a list you randomize then walk completely through, then randomize and repeat. Or a pool of choices with counters that you randomly pick from until the counters are zero, then reset all the counters. You could implement any of the above. I think it's safe to say, any of these are almost always never used.

Then we have Scenario 5. The pile has 4 cards, or 8 cards, or 52 cards, or multiple decks, whatever, but after every draw, the card is reinserted and the entire deck is reshuffled. Nobody sees the same sequence. Nobody is guaranteed to ever see perfect outcomes long term, not on a defined, continuous basis, not once in a blue moon. Some players will see highly unlikely sequences, like getting the same suit 20 times in a row or not seeing a particular suit in 28 consecutive plays. Long term, the trend will be near 1:4 ratios, but things will go in all kinds of directions. But each and every individual choice with the same, perfect 1:4 odds.

This is what we normally see implemented. Calls to Rand() indexed into a list with weighted probabilities.



PS Lastly, for completeness sake, let's consider Scenario 6, which is what my completely uninformed brain guesses is what would be similar to what gets down with most modern electronic gambling devices. Each individual play is randomly done to the above weighted probability, but the machine peeks at the card before showing it to you. Internally, the machine has been tracking the full history of plays, and has some additional rules it follows to nudge the short and long term behaviors. While straight statistics says that, while highly unlikely, it is possible for a 1 in a million play to occur four times in a row. Or three times in ten minutes. Or twice in a day. All possible outcomes, all highly unlikely and unusual, and all bad for the casino. So, the machine massages the outcomes. If a perfectly fine random event would produce an unlikely cluster, a "this is occuring more frequently than average", then rejectthe play and internally try again. And possibly the same thing in reverse, if the machine has been seeing an uncommonly long dry spell. There's probably sophisticated and proprietary stuff going on that is both random (no one knows what's going on play-to-play) but massaged so that the overall trends don't drift to far from the center of expected outcomes. You legally have to justify the stated odds of the game. Jackpots need to be given out eventually, and 1:1,000,000 odds need to be justified as 1:1,000,000, but you don't want to have that play out as 4,999,999 misses and 5 consecutive wins, even if that is a reasonable (but highly unlikely) outcome.



TL:DR - When playing games that state the odds for a random occurrence, don't expect personal or large group perfect statistics.
 

Hekata

Artisan
@Sir Derf While you explain very well how random/chance games work, the problem, at least for me, is that this wasn't a game based on random luck. When I started playing (over 3 years ago) it was just a game of strategy and game building. The only random aspect was what you'd get in the 3 (not 9 just 3) chests during the 4 big events, And while it was based on luck, you always had the same 3 chests and it was easy to go after what you wanted (daily or grand prize or "filler" prizes). So just 1 element based on luck. Now we have multiple levels of luck and random. Take the Spire: what you get from regular chests is random, whether you get a mystical chest - random, what you get in mystical chests random, diplomacy base on 50% players ability / 50% luck. (and I'm being generous here, as on stage 3 it's mostly luck). MA: recipes - random, the prize in the MO random. And let's not even start with events especially those like the upcoming one with the shuffle board + the random number of flowers (or whatever it's now instead of the winter bricks.). All this to say this is very far from the game I signed up for.
That's why I'm less and less interested in events now (and that used to be my favourite part of the game) and instead enjoy tournaments and FA a lot more: there is no luck/random element involved (yet). I also like mini events, but those seem to be gone.

And since you like analysing probability here's an interesting situation for you: in this week's Spire I have gotten nothing but PP. If they were available in a chest I got them: the 3 chests with 60% teleport spell I got the PP, the 2 big bosses from the 2 first stages I got PP, and I got 2 golden chests and PP from them. I am definitely not going up to the 3rd big boss since I know what's waiting for me :)
 
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Sir Derf

Adept
I sympathize with your feelings about the gradual increase of random elements.

Hmmmm. As to the numerical chance of getting all PP, I'll have to look into that and get back to you. Whatever the math, I make the following general observation. Highly unlikely to occur to one particular person at one particular time . Unlikely to occur to a particular player over time. Likely to occur to someone at some time.
 

Hekata

Artisan
Actually I'm a bit tempted now to go to the top just for science and see if I'd get another PP. I have never gotten a PP from the last boss so far so the odds are completely in favour of that :) I'm very low on coins and supplies though, I doubt I'll make it.
 

DeletedUser9591

Guest
I really appreciate the passion for numbers and statistics....

I personally try to separate two different things: gaming and gambling. The latter is completely random and odds usually are not in the favour of the individual player. My expectations are simple when I see the odds in the spire. A very primitive example is tossing the coin - two outcomes A and B. The more moves player makes, the closer they get to the evenly distributed outcomes 50/50. I see the chances in the spire in exactly the same way. The more times I complete certain action, the closer I should arrive to the distribution of the outcomes provided. However, if we will start talking about conditional probabilities and/or complete randomness those chances become completely random outcome.

The last event was a complete disaster. There was enough ''randomness'' already when players were opening the chests. Rare recipes were way too much. Better solutions were possible, like temporary addition to the store where players could exchange evolves or at least recipes reappearing not randomly but at least once a day. In my case I spent few hundreds of diamonds to buy sky essence only to speed up opening of the chests when the recipe for the last possible evolve became available (I decided that lvl 8 or 9 would be enough for me). My decision was right at this point of the game as later I did not receive any option to exchange evolves, only during the additional time. It was the first and the last time I went so far to get something in this game. If I would be asked to repeat this experience once again, I would rather choose to delete my account/city :) I do not like gambling in the games which otherwise seem relatively primitive and most importantly waste so much time. Very poor experience this time. Upcoming event will be a well needed break :)

Probably the best help with the spire would be when somebody could explain which factors influence difficulty, squad sizes and ratios :) I do not believe that there is a very clear pattern with negotiations or odds of winning certain prize. Same with the difficulty or amount of mystery chests which might vary significantly from one week to another. I just stopped paying attention :)
 
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DeletedUser9591

Guest
Actually I'm a bit tempted now to go to the top just for science and see if I'd get another PP. I have never gotten a PP from the last boss so far so the odds are completely in favour of that :) I'm very low on coins and supplies though, I doubt I'll make it.

Actually first time I did all maps in the spire my award was a PP :) I am very lucky in this respect as I do not remember when I had a week without a PP prize :) 90% or even 100% chance for me.
 

Deleted User - 2044766

Guest
luck in games is what luck in games is...
too much maths for me takes the fun out of it
It's a game...
Phoenix event was what it was...
some comments here making my eyes tiredo_O
 

Sir Derf

Adept
First gate challenge - 15% PP - odds of getting all PP by this point - 15%.
Second segment - no PP offers.

Total odds so far - 15%




Purple Magic Chest - 30% PP
 

Hekata

Artisan
@Sir Derf Are you saying that getting the same prize at 15% chance 3 times in a row is still a 15 % chance... You would think the odds would decrease with every next try if you got it on the first one. I admit I don't know much about probabilities but I know that if you manage to do something with low probability, the chance of doing it a few times in a row seems very unlikely.
I go them from the first 2 big bosses too.
And it wasn't purple chests but 2 gold chests.

(assuming that what you said was a rely to my odd PP streak)
 

Pauly7

Magus
@Sir Derf Are you saying that getting the same prize at 15% chance 3 times in a row is still a 15 % chance... You would think the odds would decrease with every next try if you got it on the first one.
The odds of 3 things all happening each with a 15% chance is very small, but once the first thing has already happened the second thing still has a 15% chance.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
The Spire has just reopened, and I'm looking at the chest prizes as I go along.

So far, I've done the first two sections of the first map, and of those 8 chests, the only one that offered a PP as a prize was the fourth one, the "first gate challenge". That one chest had a 15% chance, so the total odds of only PP so far is the odds for that one chest, 15%.
 

Hekata

Artisan
OK, I'll leave the maths to those more versed in it, but I just thought that "3 times in a row" introduces a second level of probability (the probability of hinting the 15% 3 times in a row) to the overall equation.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
I'm not reading back to find who said "3 times in a row" and in what context. I try to show my work when I give deeper than surface computations, and I think it was clear in my post what I was reporting and what I was computing.
 

Hekata

Artisan
You were clear but you posted your reply as I was typing mine and until the moment I clicked on "post" it hadn't uploaded yet and I didn't get any notification. It's only when I posted mine that yours appeared too, My answer was in fact a reply to Pauly :)
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Level 1, Third gate - no new PP possibilities.

Overall odds on all PP in 12 chests is so far 15% chance getting it once.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Level 1, final section. Final boss chest had a 30% chance of PP.

So, that's 15%*30% for 4.5% chance of getting both. So far. I don't think I missed seeing any on Level 1.
 
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