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Did anybody manage to win a daily prize (Wishing Well) today?

DeletedUser8632

Guest
I am asking in all seriousness if anybody managed to win a wishing well today?

I just spent more than 6000 flares on the event chest "wheel" and managed to win exactly: Zero. None. Nil. Not a single daily prize. Despite the fact that I was *specifically* targeting chests with the highest chance of dropping daily prizes.

After the first city (3500 flares) I was mildly upset but blamed it on bad luck but after the exact same thing happened in the second city (2500 flares) I did a quick check and the odds of this happening are... well, astronomical.

So, anybody out there with equally rotten luck?

Cheers
Tes
 

DeletedUser8632

Guest
Just to be clear, I am not just claiming that this highly improbably. Depending on how lucky you are getting 142 chests the probability of not getting a single daily prize with 6500 flares is somewhere between 1:2 Million (plus/minus a million)
 

DeletedUser6935

Guest
My first favourite was the 30 AW KP instant, of which I won a fair few, some days ago. I felt that the distribution of prizes amongst the chests sat well within the given probabilities. I spent the rest on Wishing Wells this morning and again felt the prize distribution met the expectations of the given probabilities.

The only issue I have with the probabilities are those of the mystical object for crafting in the MA. Though, I suppose I haven't won enough of them to give the probability a fair chance to even out.
 

DeletedUser8632

Guest
Fair enough. I guess I am really that unlucky :(

Bad luck for Inno too, I guess, I have no intention to continue a game that upsets me that much.
 
C-Nymph

C-Nymph

Necromancer
Silent Tempest said:
I spent the rest on Wishing Wells this morning
Click to expand...
That's the point here, it seems that after the update today (so after this morning), suddenly no daily prizes are being handed out anymore. You are talking about good probabilities from before the update.

For now, I think the best bet is to spend flares using the app, since that hasn't been updated yet...

Edit: Never mind, app is broken as well. Got Ancient Knowledge 30 there too instead of Wishing Wells (read the replies on the bug report, link in Killiak's post above. It's not that people are not getting any daily prizes, just a different one than wishing wells, since the update).

IMG_4169a.png
 
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Deleted User - 1759805

Guest
tesla333 said:
Just to be clear, I am not just claiming that this highly improbably. Depending on how lucky you are getting 142 chests the probability of not getting a single daily prize with 6500 flares is somewhere between 1:2 Million (plus/minus a million)
Click to expand...
This sounds about right, for the strategy you picked. Unfortunately, you were shooting yourself in the foot by not opening the right chests to maximize daily prizes ;) The best strategy to maximize dailies skips red and purple chests completely. I don't know how you chose between chests of the same probabilities, so I made some assumptions, but probability of getting zero dailies goes something like this:

Your strategy (open chests with maximum daily probability):
2500 flares - 0.0646% or ~1:1500
3500 flares - 0.0046% or ~1:22K
6000 flares - 0.0001% or ~1:2mm

This is bad, but not "astronomically" bad. For 6000 flares it is indeed pretty unlikely, but are you sure that you ran a consistent experiment so that we can combine both cities? Regardless, the first 2 cases are definitely not improbable - it is quite likely that at least one player on a reasonably populated server would get a stretch like that.

Now, the optimal strategy that maximizes dailies (and doesn't include red or purple) looks like this:
2500 flares - 0.0112% or ~1:9000
3500 flares - 0.0005% or ~1:200K
6000 flares - 0.0000% or <<1:10mm

This strategy with 6000 flares has never produced less than 3 dailies over 10mm simulations, so probability of hitting zero would be pretty small.
 
m4rt1n

m4rt1n

Adept
@MinMax Gamer I believe the problem here lies with Inno changing the daily prize today half way through the 24 hour period, due to a fundamental error involving update 1.82

See here: https://en.forum.elvenar.com/index....summer-solstice-after-update-to-v-1-82.10354/

The daily prizes were won but were 30kp instants instead of wishing wells, for the second half of the 24 hour ongoing daily period.

Many players saved for today everything to get a loot of wells and instead have a load of 30kp instants.
 

Deleted User - 1759805

Guest
Interesting, didn't spin today as I have enough Wishing Wells for a while. But next day daily prize is also different from beta - Carting Library instead of Sparkling Tree Enclosure. I wonder of this is also an unintended change - unlike Trading Outposts, I don't remember anyone complaining about lack of Carting Libraries ;)
 
m4rt1n

m4rt1n

Adept
MinMax Gamer said:
Interesting, didn't spin today as I have enough Wishing Wells for a while. But next day daily prize is also different from beta - Carting Library instead of Sparkling Tree Enclosure. I wonder of this is also an unintended change - unlike Trading Outposts, I don't remember anyone complaining about lack of Carting Libraries ;)
Click to expand...

I agree, carting libraries are great, but changing the prize form a well to a 30kp instant is a first for me and low form in my opinion if it is as intentional as the prize in the box was the WW, so I believe everyone who spun and got the 30kp instant should be given a well as a good faith gesture, and that should apply if a player saved and got 10x 30kp instants. Give them 10 wells, and let them keep the instants. @Muf-Muf @Dizzy Lizzie @Rilian

These players are fundamental to the game and Inno you made an error so please give every player concerned the same amount of wells that they got 30kp instants as a good will gesture.

For info I did not spin today, but feel the players that did should be given the prize advertised in the prize box.
I'm hopeful and sure that as a company you will do the right thing in this unfortunate situation. :)
 

Deleted User - 1759805

Guest
m4rt1n said:
For info I did not spin today, but feel the players that did should be given the prize advertised in the prize box.
Click to expand...
I agree, it is one thing to replace prizes vs beta (still bad as you don't really know what to spin for if you don't have a reliable list), it's another to advertise for one thing and give another. That's just wrong.
 

Deleted User - 1634960

Guest
Please see my comments in the Bug Reports thread.
 

DeletedUser7324

Guest
m4rt1n said:
I agree, carting libraries are great, but changing the prize form a well to a 30kp instant is a first for me and low form in my opinion if it is as intentional as the prize in the box was the WW, so I believe everyone who spun and got the 30kp instant should be given a well as a good faith gesture, and that should apply if a player saved and got 10x 30kp instants. Give them 10 wells, and let them keep the instants. @Muf-Muf @Dizzy Lizzie @Rilian

These players are fundamental to the game and Inno you made an error so please give every player concerned the same amount of wells that they got 30kp instants as a good will gesture.

For info I did not spin today, but feel the players that did should be given the prize advertised in the prize box.
I'm hopeful and sure that as a company you will do the right thing in this unfortunate situation. :)
Click to expand...

Not for my benefit either, but I agree completely. Small gestures like this keep a gamer happy and motivated. When I read about the problem and how it was being addressed I just thought how good that I didn't participate in this round, I would have been so upset.
 

DeletedUser7863

Guest
I got 30 KP AW instead of Wishing Wells. Sent my ticket to Support, got 7 Wishing Wells replacement today.

Well done Inno on a swift resolution
 
C-Nymph

C-Nymph

Necromancer
I have also received my 5 wishing wells in exchange for the 5 x 30 Ancient Knowledge instances. Very happy about this! :D
 
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