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Bug or Just a Not so good day of mine ?

  • Thread starter DeletedUser7953
  • Start date

DeletedUser7953

Guest
Today I spent candies just to get the daily exclusive which is the Blue Tree Enclosure. I was been so frustrated about it cause I've almost spent all of my candies that i save which is about 1400 to be round off. What left now is just 300 something it is really hurt for me that I saved all of my candies just to get a lot of upcoming daily exclusive. It just a matter of so confusing that in other daily exclusive I've only spent about 100-200 plus candies to get it but with this Blue Tree Enclosure I think I've open almost (5-8) 71 candies box and other boxes (cost almost 1000+). I was so confuse about it. :(

I'm hoping for your great consideration about it. Thank You in Advance.

#NOTE: I just want someone to explain about this happening. :) I <3 Elvenar
 

Deleted User - 341074

Guest
@SoulPrince Depending on which chest you open, you should spend about 400 candies, so if you spent 100-200 you were very lucky, and spending 1100 was unlucky.

Sometimes when you flip a coin you get heads right away, sometimes 3 in a row, and sometimes tails 5 in a row.

The worst Ive heard of was 25% chance box and 2800 spent for zero dailies(in another event). I personally have won 4 in a row with 7% boxes, so almost anything is possible
 

DeletedUser6644

Guest
I just want someone to explain about this happening. :) I <3 Elvenar

Glad to see that you are still smiling despite the cost of your prize :)

Did you target your chest spins to the ones with the best chance of getting the daily prize? Even if you did, remember that the % chance of getting the daily prize in even the best chests available (purple in this case) is still quite low (less than 1 in 3 spins, so worse odds than tossing a coin!). And this chest costs a lot of candies (71 candies per spin, although there is a chance of getting more candies with this one!). Of the 9 chests available the best 5 for getting the daily prize are purple, green, bronze, blue & red. There is a very good chance of being able to spin at least one of those 5 every time. These chests then range from an average of 170 to 247 candies total, per daily prize awarded. But as SoggyShorts points out above, these are just average values and random chance plays a big role. Unfortunately I think you were just at the really unlucky end of the scale. I hope your luck will turn with the remaining prizes!
 

DeletedUser7953

Guest
@SoulPrince Depending on which chest you open, you should spend about 400 candies, so if you spent 100-200 you were very lucky, and spending 1100 was unlucky.

Sometimes when you flip a coin you get heads right away, sometimes 3 in a row, and sometimes tails 5 in a row.

The worst Ive heard of was 25% chance box and 2800 spent for zero dailies(in another event). I personally have won 4 in a row with 7% boxes, so almost anything is possible

Thank you for seeing this post. Yeah I see maybe I am just too confuse with that thing maybe it just too new for me cause every other daily exclusive I've just spent less than that last one today. I see that maybe it just not my good day.
 

DeletedUser7953

Guest
Glad to see that you are still smiling despite the cost of your prize :)

Did you target your chest spins to the ones with the best chance of getting the daily prize? Even if you did, remember that the % chance of getting the daily prize in even the best chests available (purple in this case) is still quite low (less than 1 in 3 spins, so worse odds than tossing a coin!). And this chest costs a lot of candies (71 candies per spin, although there is a chance of getting more candies with this one!). Of the 9 chests available the best 5 for getting the daily prize are purple, green, bronze, blue & red. There is a very good chance of being able to spin at least one of those 5 every time. These chests then range from an average of 170 to 247 candies total, per daily prize awarded. But as SoggyShorts points out above, these are just average values and random chance plays a big role. Unfortunately I think you were just at the really unlucky end of the scale. I hope your luck will turn with the remaining prizes!


Oh Thank you with the response, that is what I also think after the happening you know I'm not just having a good vibes seeing that kind of getting the last one but still love the game.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
The best chest, purple, has 30% chance for the daily, 70% chance for not the daily.
The odds of not getting the daily with n purple chests is 0.7^n.

Odds of not getting the daily from n purple chests:
1 = 70.0%
2 = 49.0% (51% chance getting the daily at least once in 2 tries)
3 = 34.3%
4 = 24.0%
5 = 16.9%


The next best chests, 47s, has 15% chance for the daily, 85% chance for not the daily.
The odds of not getting the daily with n 47 chests is 0.85^n.

Odds of not getting the daily from n 47 chests:
1 = 85.0%
2 = 72.3%
3 = 61.4%
4 = 52.2%
5 = 44.4% (55.6% chance of getting the daily at least once in 5 tries)

10% chance has 47.8% odds of not getting daily in 7 tries, 52.2% chance of getting the daily at least once in 7 tries).


*Edit: changed references to at least once in n tries, not n days*
 
Last edited:

DeletedUser7953

Guest
The best chest, purple, has 30% chance for the daily, 70% chance for not the daily.
The odds of not getting the daily with n purple chests is 0.7^n.

Odds of not getting the daily from n purple chests:
1 = 70.0%
2 = 49.0% (51% chance getting the daily at least once in 2 days)
3 = 34.3%
4 = 24.0%
5 = 16.9%


The next best chests, 47s, has 15% chance for the daily, 85% chance for not the daily.
The odds of not getting the daily with n 47 chests is 0.85^n.

Odds of not getting the daily from n 47 chests:
1 = 85.0%
2 = 72.3%
3 = 61.4%
4 = 52.2%
5 = 44.4% (55.6% chance of getting the daily at least once in 5 days)

10% chance has 47.8% odds of not getting daily in 7 days, 52.2% chance of getting the daily at least once in 7 days).


I'm not really good in mathematical computation what is clear to me is that we will not always get the best good we've really been wanting hahahahhaha
Thanks for the comment.
 

Pauly7

Magus
What @Sir Derf said, but in summary, for the non-mathematical answer...

It always feels like the Gods are against us when we have a bad run of luck, but even though it all seems unlikely, consider this - if there is (let's just say) a 1 in 4 chance of success, then of every 20 people trying 1 of those people will fail roughly 10 times in a row. Taking it further (this is just vaguely in my head, so someone can correct me) something like 1 out of every 300 people is going to fail 20 times in a row.

Now if you consider all the people playing this game and opening these chests there are inevitably quite a lot of people, like yourself, thinking "how is this even possible?"

OK... that's a slightly mathematical answer!
 

Deleted User - 341074

Guest
Add to that the fact that the other 299 probably won't come to the forum.
 
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