#### Sir Derf

##### Immortal

Edit - found error, see later post

So, what about that Odds of getting or building a Level 3 Piece in n Draws....

~~Was as the corrected list above was, we want the odds of~~

~~Here is what I think the table is~~

Something is wrong here, but I can't yet see what it is. Generically, it doesn't make sense that this doesn't eventually accumulate to 100%, but I have a more specific cross-check that is failing. Pulling from this table, the odds of getting a 3 on the first try is 15%, as expected, and the odds of getting the first 3 on the second try is 2.25%+6.00%+3.50% = 12.75%, also as expected. However, the combined odds of getting a

1st 3 on the third try appear to sum to 0.34%+1.80%+2.40%+1.35%+3.60%=9.49%, when the expected is 10.84%, off by 1.35%. I suspect either or both of my (11x)3 and (12x)3 column, but at the moment I can't spot the error. I'm posting this as is, knowing that this is flawed, both as a continuing record of my thought process, and in the faint hope that someone who is interested might puzzle this out before me. I'll continue looking into this and get back later.

I don't know about anyone else, but INNO is sure giving me a lot of entertainment out of this, and I haven't had the chance to actually start playing this yet.

So, what about that Odds of getting or building a Level 3 Piece in n Draws....

~~getting a 1st 3 with no 2s or 1s~~~~or getting a 1st 3 after 1 1 and no 2s~~~~or getting a 1st 3 after 2 1s and no 2s~~~~or getting a 1st 3 after 3 1s and no 2s~~~~or getting a 1st 3 after 1 2 and no 1s~~~~or getting a 1st 3 after 1 2 and 1 1~~~~or getting a 2nd 2 with no 3s or 1s~~~~or getting a 2nd 2 after 1 1 and no 3s~~~~or getting a 1st 2 after 2 1s and no 3s~~~~or getting a 1st 2 after 3 1s and no 32~~~~or getting a 4th 1 with no 2s or 3s~~

(n) | n | 1 - n | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

0.34% | 1.80% | 2.40% | 1.35% | 3.60% | |||||||||

Something is wrong here, but I can't yet see what it is. Generically, it doesn't make sense that this doesn't eventually accumulate to 100%, but I have a more specific cross-check that is failing. Pulling from this table, the odds of getting a 3 on the first try is 15%, as expected, and the odds of getting the first 3 on the second try is 2.25%+6.00%+3.50% = 12.75%, also as expected. However, the combined odds of getting a

1st 3 on the third try appear to sum to 0.34%+1.80%+2.40%+1.35%+3.60%=9.49%, when the expected is 10.84%, off by 1.35%. I suspect either or both of my (11x)3 and (12x)3 column, but at the moment I can't spot the error. I'm posting this as is, knowing that this is flawed, both as a continuing record of my thought process, and in the faint hope that someone who is interested might puzzle this out before me. I'll continue looking into this and get back later.

I don't know about anyone else, but INNO is sure giving me a lot of entertainment out of this, and I haven't had the chance to actually start playing this yet.

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