There is always at least a few players who are convinced that the listed percentages are a lie, which makes no sense since inno doesn't need to lie and gain nothing from lying.
I would generally agree, and I don't have reasons to believe that
listed percentages (e.g. event chests) are wrong - even though I had a couple of stretches when I questioned some of these. But over longer periods of time they converged to stated numbers.
However, I have never seen
listed percentages for the recipes in the MA. Perhaps it was mentioned somewhere, but so far I've only heard
assumptions that all recipes have the same probability.
Now, here are my observations: for quite some time, I was getting UUU about once a week as expected - on average. This allowed me to use it in every single tournament for many weeks, yet I didn't build much of a surplus despite crafting it at any opportunity. So sounds about right.
Now, in the last 6-7 weeks I've got a grand total of 1 UUU. That is... quite a bit less than expected. There are no feelings involved here, these are facts - albeit indeed for a single sample. So is it statistically possible? Sure, even though not very likely. But it also coincided with introduction of the pet food, which I indeed can have hand over fist. Is it a coincidence? Perhaps. But it doesn't need to be a conspiracy for Inno to adjust recipes probabilities as they never
listed those. As far as I know.