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Lucky Little Fin

QFol2

Conjurer
Spire is unlocked in ch 5 now :(
I contacted support and a very helpful person came to my assistance. That's twice in a week that the support team has come to my rescue! My heroes!
That's good - when I had the same problem after I started a new city on the updated tech tree, I was basically told tough - end of the line. Glad to hear they've changed their response on that one.
 

finzles

Adventurer
Newbie question!

I only started playing the game today and I think I understand the basics fine, but this Fin thing… It’s a lot!

My question is should I complete as many hoops as possible each day? I currently have three hoops left, for 25, 50 and 71 food. I did have four hoops, but I already opened one and I received Azure Stables (the daily exclusive). Is it worth doing another hoop, or should I wait until tomorrow when the daily exclusive changes? I have 143 food left.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Look to the start of the thread for a posting by @Jackluyt and follow his link for a rundown of Lucky Little Fin Event (Events occur multiple times a year).

Buried in there are a few tables which report the math for which Rings are more efficient than others for either progressing more on the Prize Path or for winning Daily Prizes. Depending on what you are interested in, there are different priorities.
 

finzles

Adventurer
Look to the start of the thread for a posting by @Jackluyt and follow his link for a rundown of Lucky Little Fin Event (Events occur multiple times a year).

Thank you. :) I looked at that before I posted, but I’m still not clear on what strategy I should use when choosing hoops. I’ll read it again to see if I missed something the first time. :)
 

Herodite

Forum mod extraordinaire
Elvenar Team
Hi @finzles The MAIN part of these events (for most) is really to gain and evolve the Main Building which in this event is The Glory of the Nimble. You can find information concerning the whole event, including the Evolving Building by clicking here

Of course, many Players take a look at the Evolving Building to consider if it's something that they want within their City. For some players that is their only goal, for a few Players they have their eyes set on Daily Exclusives only, as some are a brilliant source of Culture and Population.

I think we can all agree that the artwork is stunning and would be a beautiful addition to any City but for some it's all about what the building can bring to their City! And when it's a question of space... what would be best for you!

With every hoop you are guaranteed a prize whether it be an enchantment, a unit boost, or resources. It's a nice little touch as you make your way towards the Grand Prizes!

A lot of our Players are registered Beta Players so they get a nice little preview of the events before they hit our live servers! This way they they can make their decisions and strategize before it hits our live server here. It's a great place to be if you love a good spoiler!

I would maybe use this time left with this Event to familiarise yourself with the mechanics, and gain some decent prizes to start you off in your City along the way. The Azure Stables are definitely a good start! :D

Kind Regards

Herodite.
 

finzles

Adventurer
Hi @finzles The MAIN part of these events (for most) is really to gain and evolve the Main Building which in this event is The Glory of the Nimble. You can find information concerning the whole event, including the Evolving Building by clicking here

Thanks! I don’t have space to place the Glory of Nimble, I need to complete three more provinces before I can unlock another expansion. I can’t find a way to move buildings into storage, looks like the only option is to delete them entirely.
 

Herodite

Forum mod extraordinaire
Elvenar Team
@finzles When you unlock The Spire of Eternity and begin to climb it, you may be lucky enough to win a Teleport Enchantment. This will allow you to teleport most Buildings of your choice back into your Summonings Tab for future use.

I won't lie! It becomes a tight squeeze at the start of your Journey so part of your Game is to prioritise and balance. But you'll get there! If you persevere you'll start creating a thriving magnificent city :D
 

SkyRider99

Mentor
Thanks! I don’t have space to place the Glory of Nimble, I need to complete three more provinces before I can unlock another expansion. I can’t find a way to move buildings into storage, looks like the only option is to delete them entirely.
Keep solving the provinces, in order to gain new expansions.

Think carefully before deleting buildings. After all, there was a reason you built them in the first place. You will eventually win 'Teleport' spells which will let you store buildings in your inventory.

Build/upgrade/produce (Not necessarily in that order) :)
 

Silly Bubbles

Necromancer
I'm going for the highest risk, highest possible return strategy this time around. That is, I'm choosing chests with the highest possible win of seahorse food on days that I want the daily prize. Nothing much to lose, a lot to gain so hopefully the Force will be with me and I'll get higher than average rewards. :D
 

Sir Derf

Adept
*shakes head*

Cognitive dissonance goals.

"I don't really care about the Dailies, but I'm going to take an approach that I claim is meant to sometimes give me a lot of the Dailies. Most of the time, I'm going to do poorly, but I have nothing much to lose so I'll be okay with that; but if the stars align, I'll get higher than the other approach's average, and that's what I really want."


Magical, amathematical thinking.

"If I'm lucky and get the unlikely outcomes from the riskier options more often than predicted, I might get higher than average rewards, meaning more Dailies then with the safer options."




If you want to hope on luck for getting a better than average outcome, shouldn't you be picking the Ring with the most efficient base-line return, so that when you get 10% luckier, you get 10% better than the best average return?

71 Ring (Highest Risk)31 Ring (Highest Reward)
17% chance of Daily11% chance of Daily
4% chance of 300 SF12% chance of 50 SF
347.1 SF/Daily average227.3 SF/Daily average
6,000 SF -> 17.28 Dailies6,000 SF -> 26.40 Dailies
10% Luckier -> 19.01 Dailies10% Luckier -> 29.04 Dailies
20% Luckier -> 20.74 Dailies20% Luckier -> 31.68 Dailies
52.7% Luckier -> 26.40 Dailies52.7% Luckier -> 40.31 Dailies
 

Sir Derf

Adept
What does 52.7% luckier on Dailies mean, if you're putting your faith in luck on winning more Seahorse Food?

Well, that means getting 52.7% more SF.

If you started with 6,000 SF, 52.7% more SF is 3,162 more SF, or 10.54 more bonus SF wins.
But, the expected bonus SF wins from 6,000 SF is 6,000 / 71 * 4% = 3.38.

You need to win bonus SF 300% more often...


Just to dig yourself out of the hole you are standing in, because you choose a Ring that provides Dailies at a highly inefficient rate.
 

Silly Bubbles

Necromancer
@Sir Derf You keep looking at average luck and assuming that everyone will get average luck. I'm looking at a possibility of above average luck and I'm happy to risk some rewards to get bigger rewards. It all comes down to risk tolerance, math is the same for all scenarios, the only difference is whether you're happy to risk to get higher than average reward. Just because the odds are higher for your scenario, it doesn't mean that there is no possibility for a better scenario to happen. It might have lower odds but it can still happen. Statistics are great but it doesn't predict the future, it only calculates odds of things happening, not what will actually happen. Anything can happen. ;)
It all comes down to what you're happy to sacrifice to gain a possibility of a high reward. And of course, this depends on our personalities. Some people like buying lottery tickets, some people don't.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
No. I don't keep "...looking at average luck and assuming that everyone will get average luck." That would be a simple one-to-one comparison. That would be simply looking at the table of expected outcomes, reading 227.3 vs. 347.1, and being done.

Yes, you look "...at a possibility of above average luck." Above average luck for you, but not for the other side.

No, I look at equivalent luck, at different luck for both sides. Above average luck for you, and equivalent above average luck for the other side.



What reward are you looking forward to? How many Dailies is this "bigger reward" you are hoping for? 30? 50? 100? Give me a number.
How likely is this outcome? How lucky do you think you are needing to be? 1%? 0.1% 0.0001%? Give me a number.
What risk are you taking? What are you happily sacrificing? Give me a number.
 

SkyRider99

Mentor
Statistics are great but it doesn't predict the future, it only calculates odds of things happening, not what will actually happen. Anything can happen. ;)
I may even win a Dwarven Armorer again one day. But I won't hold my breath. :)

I'm looking at a possibility of above average luck
Ah, the eternal optimist approach. Good to see, since it is a balance for my pessimism. :cool:
 

Silly Bubbles

Necromancer
*shakes head*

Cognitive dissonance goals.

"I don't really care about the Dailies, but I'm going to take an approach that I claim is meant to sometimes give me a lot of the Dailies. Most of the time, I'm going to do poorly, but I have nothing much to lose so I'll be okay with that; but if the stars align, I'll get higher than the other approach's average, and that's what I really want."


Magical, amathematical thinking.

"If I'm lucky and get the unlikely outcomes from the riskier options more often than predicted, I might get higher than average rewards, meaning more Dailies then with the safer options."




If you want to hope on luck for getting a better than average outcome, shouldn't you be picking the Ring with the most efficient base-line return, so that when you get 10% luckier, you get 10% better than the best average return?

71 Ring (Highest Risk)31 Ring (Highest Reward)
17% chance of Daily11% chance of Daily
4% chance of 300 SF12% chance of 50 SF
347.1 SF/Daily average227.3 SF/Daily average
6,000 SF -> 17.28 Dailies6,000 SF -> 26.40 Dailies
10% Luckier -> 19.01 Dailies10% Luckier -> 29.04 Dailies
20% Luckier -> 20.74 Dailies20% Luckier -> 31.68 Dailies
52.7% Luckier -> 26.40 Dailies52.7% Luckier -> 40.31 Dailies

I don't think that you can just increase average dailies by 10%, 20%, 52.7%? to adjust for luck because when you actually do win on 71 ring you get 300 SF and that's 4.22 additional turns (300/71) while 31 ring gives you only 1.61 additional turns (50/31). So just one 71 ring win is 2.62 (4.22/1.61) times better than 31 ring. So you need to win less times using 71 ring than using 31 ring.
Also, I'm trusting that your numbers are correct, I haven't really done mine as it's all too hypothetical to me, sorry. I prefer calculations that actually do predict the future. Based on my experience whatever I do I average 20 dailies so I might at the worst risk 3 dailies to win maybe another 10, this is as far as I'm happy to go with the numbers. One sure thing, if you do get really lucky your maximum possible daily prizes are much higher using 71 rings than 31 rings.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
Why do you stop part way and declare victory?

True.

When you actually do win (bonus SF) on 71 ring you get 300 SF and that's 4.22 additional turns (300/71) while 31 ring gives you only 1.61 additional turns (50/31). So just one 71 ring win (of bonus SF) is 2.62 (4.22/1.61) times better than 31 ring. So you need to win (bonus SF) less times using 71 ring than using 31 ring.

Okay, that combined the amount of won bonus SF with the cost of using that won bonus SF into a a subtotal multiplier of 2.62.

But, to quote King George III from Hamilton... "What comes next?"



How often are you going to win (bonus SF)? 71 Ring, 4%; 31 Ring, 12%. The 31 Ring is 3.00 times better than the 71 Ring; so you are going to win (bonus SF) more times using the 31 Ring than using the 71 Ring.

Put this together, and you get the 71 Ring providing 2.62/3.00=0.87 times additional turns from bonus SF compared to the 31 Ring. Or, the other way around, the 31 Ring is 1.15 times better than the 71 Ring.


Plus, while bonus SF is all well and good, that's not the metric by which we're measuring ultimate success. I'm talking Dailies.

How often are you going to win Dailies? 71, 17%; 31, 11%. The 71 Ring is 1.54 times better than the 31 Ring; so you are going to win Dailies more often using the 71 Ring than using the 31 Ring.

But, how many chances are you going to have to win those Dailies? 31 vs. 71, 2.29 times more chances to win Dailies; so, you are going to have more chances to win Dailies with the 31 Ring than the 71 Ring.

Combine them and you get the 31 Ring providing 2.29/1.54 = 1.48 times more Dailies from the 31 Ring versus the 71 Ring.

Overall, your base rate is that the 31 Ring on average provides 1.48 times more Dailies and provides 1.15 times more bonus SF (which then provides 1.48*1.15=1.70 times more bonus Dailies).

Which basically recomputes the original numbers for the efficiencies of the 31 and 71 Ring; 227.3 vs. 347.1 SF/Daily is roughly 1.52 times better.


"One sure thing, if you do get really lucky your maximum possible daily prizes are much higher using 71 rings than 31 rings."

No. First of all, "your maximum possible daily prizes" for both 71 Ring and 31 Ring are "infinity", so technically, their relative maximum daily prizes are equal. Second, as the math I kept providing shows, for equally unlikely/equally lucky outcomes, the 31 gives better. It starts off better, and keeps getting better. It grows towards infinity faster.





Going back to an earlier post, you boiled down your argument to "Anything can happen." This is a universal justification. I'm going to use 71 Rings exclusively, because it might give the best outcome; Anything could happen. I'm going to use only half my currency and only use 55 Rings, because every single ring might provide a Daily and give me 54 Dailies; Anything could happen. I'm not going to play at all, because the game might glitch and give me 100 Dailies for free; Anything could happen.
 

Sir Derf

Adept
So, a couple of posts ago, I ended with a series of questions. Let me try and answer them for you, given the target you provided.


  • What reward are you looking forward to? How many Dailies is this "bigger reward" you are hoping for?
Well, you said that "Based on my experience whatever I do I average 20 dailies so I might at the worst risk 3 dailies to win maybe another 10, this is as far as I'm happy to go with the numbers."

20 Dailies is your baseline. Okay. Good choice. Using my arbitrarily chosen starting SF of 6,000, the 31 Ring, with an 11% chance of getting a Daily is expecting 6,000/31*11% = 21.29 Dailies, which is close to 20. That's without considering winning any bonus SF.

And the reward you are using 71 Rings for is to attempt to get at least 10 more Dailies than 20, so 30.

  • How likely is this outcome? How lucky do you think you are needing to be?
What does it take to get 30 Dailies with the 71 Ring? Well, 30 Dailies at 17% means 176 tries. 176 tries at 71 SF per try means 12,496 SF, or 6,496 more SF. 6,496 more SF means winning bonus SF 21 times. So, how unlikely is it to win 21 bonus SF (instead of the average 3)? How unlikely is it to get 21 4% likely events out of 176 tries? 0.000257% 1 in 389,026. About a 2.5-in-a-million chance. I'd say that's mighty lucky.

  • What risk are you taking? What are you happily sacrificing?
You reach your goal of 30 Dailies 1 in 389, 026 times. What happens in those other 389, 025 times?

You get fewer Dailies with the 71 Ring than with the 31 Ring. Every single time.

Half the time with the 71 Ring, you expect to get 14-16 Dailies. Half the time with the 31 Ring you expect to get 21-25 Dailies. So, half the time you have received 7-9 fewer Dailies.
The next 45% of the time with the 71 Ring, you expect 17-19 Dailies. With the 31 Ring? 25-26 Dailies. 7-8 fewer Dailies.
The vast majority (95%) of the time, you are risking being at least 7 Dailies behind, because you want that 2.5-in-a-million chance at getting 30 Dailies.

Oh, and what is the 2.5-in-a-million chance with the 31 Ring? 32.29 Dailies. That's right. You are holding out hope for the mighty lucky, 2.5-in-a-million chance, sacrificing 9, 8, 7 Dailies most of the time, all in the hope of getting the "bigger reward" of 30 Dailies from the 71 Ring instead of the "lesser reward" of 32 Dailies from the 31 Ring.

I don't know about you, but I'm not happy mostly sacrificing 9, 8, 7 Dailies, all in the hope of a 2.5-in-a-million chance at still being 2.29 Dailies behind.
 

Silly Bubbles

Necromancer
How often are you going to win (bonus SF)? 71 Ring, 4%; 31 Ring, 12%. The 31 Ring is 3.00 times better than the 71 Ring; so you are going to win (bonus SF) more times using the 31 Ring than using the 71 Ring.

You need to win 2.62 times using 31 ring to make it on par with one win of 71 because:

you actually do win on 71 ring you get 300 SF and that's 4.22 additional turns (300/71) while 31 ring gives you only 1.61 additional turns (50/31). So just one 71 ring win is 2.62 (4.22/1.61) times better than 31 ring. So you need to win less times using 71 ring than using 31 ring.

So after one 71 ring win, it's only slightly worse than 31 ring three wins. So with 71 ring you need to get lucky less times.

But again we're talking averages and ignore what happens when you keep getting lucky and unlucky. Using averages removes a lot of important information like the worst and best case scenarios that's why I don't like them.
 
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