So, a couple of posts ago, I ended with a series of questions. Let me try and answer them for you, given the target you provided.
- What reward are you looking forward to? How many Dailies is this "bigger reward" you are hoping for?
Well, you said that "Based on my experience whatever I do I average 20 dailies so I might at the worst risk 3 dailies to win maybe another 10, this is as far as I'm happy to go with the numbers."
20 Dailies is your baseline. Okay. Good choice. Using my arbitrarily chosen starting SF of 6,000, the 31 Ring, with an 11% chance of getting a Daily is expecting 6,000/31*11% = 21.29 Dailies, which is close to 20. That's without considering winning any bonus SF.
And the reward you are using 71 Rings for is to attempt to get at least 10 more Dailies than 20, so 30.
- How likely is this outcome? How lucky do you think you are needing to be?
What does it take to get 30 Dailies with the 71 Ring? Well, 30 Dailies at 17% means 176 tries. 176 tries at 71 SF per try means 12,496 SF, or 6,496 more SF. 6,496 more SF means winning bonus SF 21 times. So, how unlikely is it to win 21 bonus SF (instead of the average 3)? How unlikely is it to get 21 4% likely events out of 176 tries? 0.000257% 1 in 389,026. About a 2.5-in-a-million chance. I'd say that's mighty lucky.
- What risk are you taking? What are you happily sacrificing?
You reach your goal of 30 Dailies 1 in 389, 026 times. What happens in those other 389, 025 times?
You get fewer Dailies with the 71 Ring than with the 31 Ring. Every single time.
Half the time with the 71 Ring, you expect to get 14-16 Dailies. Half the time with the 31 Ring you expect to get 21-25 Dailies. So, half the time you have received 7-9 fewer Dailies.
The next 45% of the time with the 71 Ring, you expect 17-19 Dailies. With the 31 Ring? 25-26 Dailies. 7-8 fewer Dailies.
The vast majority (95%) of the time, you are risking being at least 7 Dailies behind, because you want that 2.5-in-a-million chance at getting 30 Dailies.
Oh, and what is the 2.5-in-a-million chance with the 31 Ring? 32.29 Dailies. That's right. You are holding out hope for the mighty lucky, 2.5-in-a-million chance, sacrificing 9, 8, 7 Dailies most of the time, all in the hope of getting the "bigger reward" of 30 Dailies from the 71 Ring instead of the "lesser reward" of 32 Dailies from the 31 Ring.
I don't know about you, but I'm not happy mostly sacrificing 9, 8, 7 Dailies, all in the hope of a 2.5-in-a-million chance at still being 2.29 Dailies behind.