Deleted User - 341074
Guest
I absolutely think that the chance of a specific pet food recipe is the same as getting the UUU. The chances of getting any pet food recipe compared to UUU would be 9:1
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Crafting Recipes
- Thread starter LazyTony
- Start date
Pauly7
Magus
I see what you're saying. That makes sense. This implies, also, that RR spell recipes are coming up as often as unit upgrade buildings and pet food (overall) three times as often as either other type. It feels like we get more pet food than that.I absolutely think that the chance of a specific pet food recipe is the same as getting the UUU. The chances of getting any pet food recipe compared to UUU would be 9:1
Deleted User - 341074
Guest
Yup, and that's why feelings aren't allowed in statistics
Humans seek patterns. So much so, in fact, that we see them even when they aren't there.
I worked at a casino for years and even I occasionally fall into thinking that the odds might be wrong since my experience feels so out of bounds. The thing that brings me back is a simple quote I heard somewhere
"They don't care enough about you to hate you"
Which in context means that since it doesn't make any sense motivation-wise to trick me, it is extremely unlikely that I'm being tricked. There's no gain for them putting in so much effort. There is absolutely no reason why inno couldn't outright do anything they want %-wise, so why lie about it? What's the advantage for them to keep 2 sets of books? It's just not there.
Same goes for events. There is always at least a few players who are convinced that the listed percentages are a lie, which makes no sense since inno doesn't need to lie and gain nothing from lying.
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Deleted User - 1759805
Guest
I would generally agree, and I don't have reasons to believe that listed percentages (e.g. event chests) are wrong - even though I had a couple of stretches when I questioned some of these. But over longer periods of time they converged to stated numbers.
However, I have never seen listed percentages for the recipes in the MA. Perhaps it was mentioned somewhere, but so far I've only heard assumptions that all recipes have the same probability.
Now, here are my observations: for quite some time, I was getting UUU about once a week as expected - on average. This allowed me to use it in every single tournament for many weeks, yet I didn't build much of a surplus despite crafting it at any opportunity. So sounds about right.
Now, in the last 6-7 weeks I've got a grand total of 1 UUU. That is... quite a bit less than expected. There are no feelings involved here, these are facts - albeit indeed for a single sample. So is it statistically possible? Sure, even though not very likely. But it also coincided with introduction of the pet food, which I indeed can have hand over fist. Is it a coincidence? Perhaps. But it doesn't need to be a conspiracy for Inno to adjust recipes probabilities as they never listed those. As far as I know.
DeletedUser5037
Guest
I, too, thought that the Crafting Recipes were "seriously biased" towards Phoenix Pet Food after the Phoenix Event (especially when I had three of them in my MA Crafting List), however I currently have FOUR "Coin Rains" in my MA Crafting List and no Pet Food! So... Radnom is radnom! It's just that your personal R.N.Jesus isn't working for you! Pray harder to him! ^_^
tl,dr; People may try to argue, but I believe it is all random! Check back in 8 hours and it will be different!
tl,dr; People may try to argue, but I believe it is all random! Check back in 8 hours and it will be different!
FieryArien
Necromancer
Ooh, I love the conspiracy. Can I add something? ;-) I used to have problems with unreasonably frequent recipes for converting blueprint(s) to RR spells. I even complained about it on the forum: https://en.forum.elvenar.com/index.php?threads/version-1-74.9434/page-3#post-57609 and https://en.forum.elvenar.com/index.php?threads/version-1-74.9434/page-3#post-57628
So ... My big city joined a 10 chest alliance just for one tournament (and then got back to my original 5 chests alliance). My smaller city got a blueprint, because it is in a more ambitious alliance. The problem is resolved! I don’t get these recipes in unreasonable frequency anymore!
Disclaimer: I actually believe it was the bored RNG god playing with my account. No vicious programming on Inno’s side.
So ... My big city joined a 10 chest alliance just for one tournament (and then got back to my original 5 chests alliance). My smaller city got a blueprint, because it is in a more ambitious alliance. The problem is resolved! I don’t get these recipes in unreasonable frequency anymore!
Disclaimer: I actually believe it was the bored RNG god playing with my account. No vicious programming on Inno’s side.
Deleted User - 341074
Guest
I'm pretty sure a forum mod said it, but I'm not willing to wade through all of the pages to check.
But here's the problem then:
If we work on the theory that the UUU chances are lower than 1 per week since you only got 1 per 6 weeks(and we assume you check every 8h), how do we explain that I got 6 since the last scrolls tournament only checking ~10x per week(about double expected results)
If your results are normal, then mine are freakish and vice-versa. Or the statistical average is in the middle and each of us is just a little outside.
More than anything I believe all chances are equal because anything else is harder(even if only slightly) to program, and inno...um... let's say "doesn't seem to have time for that"
Deleted User - 1759805
Guest
It's good to know that someone is getting decent flow of UUU. Believe me, I would like once a week to be a true long running average. I can handle 6-7 weeks with one UUU if it's an outlier (don't really need UUU for steel
), but it would be a lot worse if UUUs just won't show up that often forever. I want to have UUU at least for scrolls/dust, ideally for all melee-based tournaments...Last event I also had a terrible start with chest openings - got only 4 dailies when expectation was ~10. But by the end of the event I was pretty much bang on the total expected number of dailies. So we'll see
m4rt1n
Adept
I've started crafting the chess set again after I deleted it a while ago to remove 4 items from the RNG and increase the odds slightly of getting more UUU, ERU and MMM buildings. It doesn't help that there are 9 different petfoods. I'd be happy with boosted relics only and less of the tiny winter buildings that keep appearing.
Deleted User - 1759805
Guest
That's an interesting idea. But don't you need to place the set in order for it to disappear from the MA? I may be willing to waste catalysts on crafting the chess set if it increases UUU chances forever (even if slightly). But I don't think I am willing to waste actual space on the chess set...
Deleted User - 341074
Guest
nope. Any crafted chess piece is removed from the pool
Pauly7
Magus
Before reading this thread I haven't heard anyone say that the chances of any given item appearing in the MA are even; definitely no one connected with Inno. I am not saying it is wrong for sure, but before this I didn't have any doubt in my mind that certain things were more likely to be won than others. It isn't a 'conspiracy theory', just an assumption about how part of this game works.
I talked about how things felt because there is no way to back up what I see unless I had opened many thousands of selections of craftable items and recorded all the results. I see large concentrations of pet food that look like much more than three times the frequency of either unit upgrades or RR spells. Sure what I have seen can be explained by the laws of probability, but I more readily chose to believe that one thing is more common than the other.
I understand that it might possibly be easier to program everything to have the same random chance of appearing, but that does not necessarily mean that Inno would do that. Inno is very concerned about the 'game balance' as they see it, so I think it's exactly the sort of thing they're likely to do to make decisions on how likely it is to find an item. I also see nothing wrong with them doing that per se - although I might argue that the balance is not always right. Luckily, I also believe that they make constant adjustments to the percentage liklihoods of things happening, which would go a long way to explaining why they are always silent about the specific maths. If so, we have to trust that they will eventually work it out and get it right.
I talked about how things felt because there is no way to back up what I see unless I had opened many thousands of selections of craftable items and recorded all the results. I see large concentrations of pet food that look like much more than three times the frequency of either unit upgrades or RR spells. Sure what I have seen can be explained by the laws of probability, but I more readily chose to believe that one thing is more common than the other.
I understand that it might possibly be easier to program everything to have the same random chance of appearing, but that does not necessarily mean that Inno would do that. Inno is very concerned about the 'game balance' as they see it, so I think it's exactly the sort of thing they're likely to do to make decisions on how likely it is to find an item. I also see nothing wrong with them doing that per se - although I might argue that the balance is not always right. Luckily, I also believe that they make constant adjustments to the percentage liklihoods of things happening, which would go a long way to explaining why they are always silent about the specific maths. If so, we have to trust that they will eventually work it out and get it right.
DeletedUser4149
Guest
this is what i thought about diamonds from wishing wells. still not sure there. but i'm pretty sure the odds are even when it comes to recipes. since people can pay to cycle them, that would be very crooked to rig the odds against customers that are buying something Inno can give to them for free.
for pet food, that should be 9 times more likely than other recipes because there is one recipe for each relic type, not 3 times more likely. i probably do find pet food about 9 times more than UUUs or other stuff that only has 1 recipe. overall, i like how my fire phoenix needs about 4 feedings per week to help me in tournaments and that i am usually able to craft about 5 pet food per week. so i'm not complaining about recipes. i did think the windmill of evil sucked compared to other event buildings i had in my inventory. that was a crappy mystical object to win but i have no problem w/ the fact that luck plays a part in this, like just about everything in life.
Pauly7
Magus
The difference with the Wishing Well is that they tell us the percentage chance so I'll be happy to just trust that even if the odds seems against me.
There are 9 pet food recipes and 3 each of unit upgrades and RR spells. That's why I refer to it as being potentially 3 times as likely.
There are 9 pet food recipes and 3 each of unit upgrades and RR spells. That's why I refer to it as being potentially 3 times as likely.
Deleted User - 341074
Guest
@Muf-Muf @Dizzy Lizzie @Rilian
Can you settle this, please?
Does each recipe have the same % chance of showing up as other recipes?
Can you settle this, please?
Does each recipe have the same % chance of showing up as other recipes?
DeletedUser4149
Guest
where did they tell us the odds of winning each prize from a wishing well?
m4rt1n
Adept
From the Beta forum https://beta.forum.elvenar.com/index.php?threads/the-phoenix-cult.10244/page-4#post-60207
10% chance for 25 diamonds
10% chance for 1 KP
10% chance for tier1-3 goods based on chapter
10% chance for tier1-3 goods based on chapter
10% chance for tier1-3 goods based on chapter
25% chance for coins
25% chance for supplies
DeletedUser4149
Guest
thanks a lot for taking the time to answer but it looks like that info came from players who might be guessing and not from anyone official.
Deleted User - 341074
Guest
Dony doesn't guess about such things. It's either viewable from the game files or he got it from an employee.
I'd sooner bank on his information than a support ticket or a post from a volunteer forum moderator.
Not once in 3 years has he shared bad info.
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